NFL player prop bets for Week 9 and beyond

It was announced less than three hours before Thursday night's kickoff that San Francisco undrafted free agent quarterback Nick Mullens would make his first NFL start against the Raiders. At the time, Oakland was a 2 1/2-point road underdog. It was a no-brainer to back the Raiders, right? Wrong. As we later learned, Nick was the 49ers' secret San Francisco treat. It was that or the Raiders defense appeared to quit on the 2018 season. Mullens carved up the Raiders secondary for 262 pass yards and three touchdowns.

While we don't know what the future holds for the former Southern Mississippi quarterback, we do know he broke some of Brett Favre's collegiate records and that places him in a special fraternity. For his next trick, Mullens will one day try to elevate his game to the level of the two guys meeting on Sunday night and that's where we begin our Week 9 prop bet rundown.

Odds: Aaron Rodgers (-150) | Tom Brady (+110)

Rookie running back Sony Michel's status weighs heavily on Tom Brady's Week 9 production against the Packers. The Patriots are very thin at running back if Michel can't suit up again due to knee injury. Brady has averaged 320 pass yards per game over the past month compared to Rodgers' 384 (three games). The Patriots are favored at home by 6 1/2 points, which insinuates Rodgers will be trailing late and the passing game will open up. I'm on the other side as I believe this game is tight late and Brady is the one who will air it out during the fourth quarter with or without Michel active.

The Bet: Brady

Odds: Yes (+650) | No (-1400)

Members of the undefeated 1972 Miami Dolphins pop champagne every year the last undefeated NFL team loses. At 8-0, the Los Angeles Rams are well on their way to a deep playoff push, but far from a perfect squad as was evident in Week 8's dramatic win over Green Bay. The Dolphins should order a few more bottles of the bubbly for this Sunday as the Rams travel to New Orleans for their toughest test to-date.

The Bet: No

Odds: Over 50.5 (-120) | Under 50.5 (-120)

The Cowboys are 3-0 at home and not out of the NFC East hunt. They need their offense to start clicking coming out of the BYE. If you traded a first-round pick for Cooper, you have to go all-in on him in his first game out. Give him 10-15 targets and see what happens.

The Bet; OVER

Odds: Over 5 (-105) | Under 5 (-135)

The Rams defensive front was already loaded. With the addition of Fowler (no relation), opposing offensive lines have to contend with him, Ndamukong Suh and Aaron Donald. Woof! No thanks. Fowler joins the Rams with two sacks to-date. The oddsmakers lean is that he finishes with fewer than 5 sacks. I'll go against the grain.

The Bet: OVER

Odds: Demaryius Thomas (+155) | Courtland Sutton (-220)

The Broncos belief in Sutton moving forward made Thomas a huge trade asset at the deadline. Denver dealt their long-time wide receiver to Houston in exchange for a third round pick. As luck should have it, the Broncos host Houston Week 9. Emmanuel Sanders remains the Broncos top target, but Sutton should carve out a nice role the rest of the way. He's posted 45-or-more receiving yards in four games this year as the third option behind Sanders and Thomas. Plus, as far as this prop bet goes, he and quarterback Case Keenum have built a rapport that Thomas and Deshaun Watson have not.

The Bet: Sutton

Odds: Yes (+500) | No (-900)

Father Time has been good to Adrian Peterson. First, he allowed A.P. to return from a nasty ACL injury in nine months time, which was unheard of, and went on to win the rushing title. Now 33 years old, Peterson's 64-yard touchdown run against the Giants last weekend tied him with Barry Sanders all-time for most touchdowns of 50-or-more rush yards with 15. Does he have one more in him? 

While he didn't score, his second-longest run of the season is 41 yards. So, there is some gas left in the tank. His best chance will come in early-December when the Redskins play the Giants and Jaguars back-to-back weeks. Both rush defenses rank in the bottom 10 and present the best chance for A.P. to run wild once again.

The Bet: No Action (too much juice on NO)

Odds: Over 3 (-120) | Under 3 (-120)

Golden Tate's trade deadline deal, which sent him packing to Philadelphia, was among the bigger surprises of the 2018 season. Detroit is contending and Tate was their most consistent receiver, but head coach Matt Patricia said the deal should be viewed as a vote of confidence in the active roster.

With three touchdowns to-date this season, Tate joins a crowded Eagles receiving corps. While I do believe his skill set improves the Eagles passing game, his ability to score within an offense also featuring Zach Ertz and Alshon Jeffery isn't the priority.

The Bet: UNDER

Odds: Over 1.5 (-180) | Under (+140)

We all know the Buccaneers pass defense is atrocious, right? Even so, Cam Newton is not known for his arm and accuracy. He's best known for his ability to move the chains with his feet and handle the rock in goal line packages. With that said, it's surprising to note that Newton has 2-or-more touchdown passes in six of seven games this season. He's projected to throw two against the Buccaneers. This seems way too easy of a prop bet to hammer the over even with the -180 juice. I'm going against the grain like backing Nick Mullens on a Thursday night.

Odds: UNDER

Odds: Yes (-175) | No (+135)

This prop bet by itself is somewhat imposing. You'd have to wager $175 to have a chance at $100 should Thielen post 100-or-more receiving yards against the Lions. However, a second prop bet provides some insight in how oddsmakers view Thielen's chances of breaking the record. 

Total receiving yards in Week 9 - Adam Thielen vs. Lions

Odds: Over 108.5 (-120) | Under 108.5 (-120)

You see, oddsmakers didn't set Thielen's total receiving yards prop Over/Under around 100. It's at 108.5 and provides those who believe Thielen does break the record a little context into if the -175 odds is worth the risk. The Lions are one of the best defenses against opposing wide receivers, but they've regressed somewhat in recent weeks and have allowed 202 receiving yards per game to the position over the past three weeks.

The Bet: Yes he breaks the record

Odds: Over 1.5 (-120) | Under (-120)

In case you missed it, Peterman made his first NFL start against the Chargers this time last year, in which he proceeded to throw five interceptions ... in the first half. As we know, the status of Bills football hasn't improved much over the past year and now the team is gifting Peterman another start. Chicago ranks second in the NFL with 11 interceptions. While the Bills defense continues to impress, it's hard not to imagine Peterman handing this game to the Bears.

The Bet: OVER

Odds: Over 90 | Under 90

How bad is the "improved" Browns defense against the rush? Well, if you remove Hunt's outlier game, he's averaging 67.2 rush yards per contest. The O/U is set at 90 rush yards because the Browns have allowed opposing running backs to rack up nearly 139 rush yards per game. While Patrick Mahomes will enjoy carving up the secondary, Hunt's talent is enough to keep the clock moving and get out of Cleveland healthy and with the win.

The Bet: OVER

Odds: Over 2.5 (+120) | Under 2.5 (-150)

Russell Wilson doesn't get enough credit for making chicken soup out of chicken droppings. With sub-par offensive line play, Wilson's elusiveness helps keep plays alive and allows him to find targets open downfield. The same is true this season. He's thrown three touchdown passes in each of his past three games, but now faces a Chargers secondary that has allowed 3-or-more touchdowns only twice this season and that hasn't happened since September. I hate to be the wet blanket, but Wilson's TD-rate is too high based on his average completions per game. He's averaged 17 completions per contest this year. So, of those 17, he's going to continue to extra three scores per game? It's an unsustainable rate of success.

The Bet: Under

Odds: Yes (-120) | No (-120)

It's been 12 regular season games since Julio Jones last scored a touchdown. If you include last year's postseason, he's scored one touchdown in his past 14 games.The Redskins secondary has allowed 12-or-more receptions to opposing wide receivers in six straight games. With the target share Jones is receiving, he's bound to find the end zone sooner rather than later and I believe it happens this week at Washington.

The Bet: YES

Odds: Over 5 | Under 5

Thomas started the season on fire posting double-digit receptions in each of his first three games. However, as Adam Thielen continued to flourish in the Vikings passing game, Thomas regressed to the mean in an offense that features so many targets. He's averaged five receptions with one touchdown over his past four games. The Rams secondary is not perfect and have allowed 27 total receptions and 230-or-more yards to opposing wide receivers in two of their past three games.

The Bet: PUSH (5)

Odds: Over 65 | Under 65

Lost in Tampa Bay's quarterback controversy and noted defensive inefficiencies is that tight end O.J. Howard is having a breakout season. He's recorded 62-or-more receiving yards in all but one game he's played in and scored three touchdowns with two scores coming over his past three contests. The Panthers have struggled in stopping opposing tight ends as of late to the tune of 111 receiving yards per game and three touchdowns over the past three weeks.

The Bet: OVER