NFL prop bets for the divisional round and beyond

Three of the top four scoring defenses in the regular season were knocked out of the playoffs last weekend. The Bears, who allowed a league-low 17.7 points per game, watched the Eagles rally to win. Despite holding the Chargers to mostly field goals, the Ravens defense, which allowed 17.9 points per game the previous 17 weeks, couldn't mask the stench wafting over from the offensive side of the ball. Andrew Luck and Marlon Mack carved up a Texans "D" that allowed fewer than 20 points per game in a wild-card weekend win. 

Granted, the Colts, Patriots, Chargers and Cowboys defensive units all rank among the top 10 scoring defenses, too, and remain alive in this year's playoffs, but so are the top-six scoring offenses: Chiefs, Rams, Saints, Patriots, Colts and Chargers. Football fans could be in for some fireworks this weekend. With those well-lit scoreboards come plenty of player prop bet opportunities, and that's where we'll start our NFL divisional playoff round rundown.

Favorites: Drew Brees (+260) | Andrew Luck (+300) | Patrick Mahomes (+300)

Kansas City is expecting rain and snow showers over the next 24 hours. Sloppy, cold weather conditions are not ideal for Patrick Mahomes — making his first postseason start — nor Andrew Luck despite a favorable matchup against the Chiefs secondary. The Eagles just allowed a below-average passing quarterback, Mitch Trubisky, to light 'em up for 303 yards — outside. With Drew Brees playing at home, inside a dome and on a fast turf track after a week off, wagering on the veteran quarterback and MVP contender at better than 2-to-1 odds would be a wise investment.

The bet: Brees

Favorites: T.Y. Hilton (+300) | Tyreek Hill (+300) | Michael Thomas (+350)

While both Hilton's and Hill's odds dipped after some sloppy weather conditions hit and are forecasted for Kansas City, Michael Thomas' odds jumped from (+600 or 6-to-1) Thursday night to (+350) Friday morning, which leads one to believe gamblers are waging a lot on the Saints wide receiver to do some damage against the Eagles secondary. Dome-based favorites make a lot of sense, but Thomas has averaged just 60.5 receiving yards per game over his past six. Weather aside, Hill could eclipse that mark on one reception. 

For me, I'm looking at some value plays, and Keenan Allen checks all the boxes at 9-to-1. While his receiving totals have regressed somewhat throughout the season, Philip Rivers trusts his top target. In a game where I believe the Chargers will be trailing, I think Allen could be in store for 12-15 targets with space to run against a Patriots defense that will yield yardage, just not points.

The bet: Keenan Allen (+900)

Favorites: Ezekiel Elliott (+190) | Todd Gurley (+300) | Marlon Mack (+350) 

Do you know which defense allowed 152 rushing yards per game over its past three contests? 

A: Kansas City

This is a great matchup for Colts running back Marlon Mack in what could be a sloppy track at Arrowhead. Mack has averaged 110 rushing yards per game over his past four. Though the overwhelming favorite, I don't believe Zeke earns as many rush attempts with the Cowboys playing from behind, and Gurley won't have as much success as he's accustomed to against an elite Cowboys rush defense.

The bet: Mack

Odds: Over 3 (+115) | Under 3 (-155)

Yeah, Cody Parkey missed a would-be, game-winning field goal against the Eagles last weekend, but the Bears still wouldn't have covered the six points. On the contrary, Sebastian Janikowski's miss from 57 yards out before halftime and subsequent injury left Seattle without a kicker and is what forced the Seahawks (+2 1/2) to attempt a two-point conversion late, convert and pick up a back-door cover win in a 24-22 loss at Dallas. The NFL's kicking issues have wreaked havoc on gamblers this season.

That said, I'm pretty confident in this weekend's slate of talent. With veterans like Stephen Gostkowski and Adam Vinatieri and an up-and-comer like Greg "The Leg" Zuerlein for the Rams, I feel good about the under. The only guy who makes me nervous is Cowboys foot Brett Maher, who has missed seven field goals this season. 

The bet: UNDER

Odds: Over 17.5 (EVEN) | Under 17.5 (-140)

Yes I'm looking at you, Jared Goff. With Todd Gurley somewhat recovered from a nagging knee injury, the Rams vs. Cowboys is where to invest in a blowout win. Los Angeles averaged 8.9 points per game more at home, while Dallas averaged 7.5 fewer points per game on the road during the season. At EVEN odds for the OVER 17.5 highest margin of victory, oddsmakers believe at least one of these home favorites obliterates its opponent. The Rams (-7) have the best shot.

The bet: OVER

Odds: Eagles (+500) | Field (-900)

A couple of factors will decide this. First and foremost is the health of Carson Wentz. The starting quarterback was injured to begin (ACL rehab) and end the season (back). If the back issues are nothing to worry about long term, Foles could be on his way out. However, if Wentz's injury history concerns the Eagles front office, they would be wise to keep Foles around as an insurance policy. 

Now if Foles manages to pull off another huge upset against a heavy favorite in New Orleans this weekend, it's hard to imagine how Philly lets him go. Granted, as a free agent Foles will look to cash in on his next contract, and perhaps his terms will be too rich for the Eagles when they also have to consider Wentz's future. It's a great prop bet that does hinge on what you think the Eagles do this weekend in New Orleans and beyond. I'm a glass half full guy on this prop at current 5-to-1 odds and think Philly keeps him.

The bet: Eagles

Odds: Ezekiel Elliott (-165) | Todd Gurley (+125)

After missing the last few weeks of the regular season with a knee injury, Todd Gurley was removed from the Rams injury report this week. So plan on him playing at 95-100 percent health this weekend. Even with the heavy juice, Zeke appears to be a no-brainer here, as the Rams defense ranked in the bottom 10 against the rush this season. Los Angeles allowed 122.3 rush yards per game in 16 games and 114 yards per game the final three weeks — with two of those games against non-playoff squads. Meanwhile, the Cowboys' fifth-ranked rush defense has remained steady, allowing 93 yards per game, and just shut down the Seahawks potent ground game to the tune of 73 yards. 

The bet: Elliott

Counterbet: Gurley, if you think the Rams jump out to a huge lead and force the Cowboys to abandon the run completely.

Favorites: Marlon Mack (-125) | Travis Kelce (-120) | Tyreek Hill (-115)

This prop bet is where fantasy football trends and gambling lines intersect. The top three favorites listed above all have a great shot to find the end zone this weekend, and that's why their odds carry so much juice, aka, you have to wager more than you could win. With so many offensive weapons on Arrowhead's field, I look elsewhere for some value. It's well-known that the Chiefs defense is among the league's worst. The secondary really struggled to stop opposing tight ends during the regular season. The position racked up 87 receptions for 1067 yards with 10 touchdowns — a league high. If not for Andrew Luck and maybe T.Y. Hilton, the Colts MVP to date could very well be Eric Ebron and his 12 touchdowns. His play on the field isn't always pretty, but he'll be effective against the Chiefs.

The bet: Eric Ebron (+110)

Note: Any pass attempt targeting Nick Foles will be graded as the winner

Odds: Yes (+400) | No (-700)

The iconic play made its debut during last year's Super Bowl. The "Philly Special" was so brilliant and worked so well that several NFL teams executed a version of it during the 2018 regular season. While Foles' "quarterback" Trey Burton is now with the Bears, the second-string QB does have one reception for 15 yards in five games this season. However, with the Eagles as 8-point underdogs at New Orleans and the Saints defensive coordinators well-aware of Foles' ability to catch out of the backfield, it would be shocking to see Doug Pederson go to this well one more time. Philadelphia needs to be efficient — not cute — to pull off another upset on the road. 

The Bet: No

Odds: Yes (+900) | No (-3,500)

This is a hilarious prop. If you're unaware, Chick-fil-A restaurants have a closed-on-Sunday's policy. So when Mercedes-Benz Stadium opened with one of the popular fast food franchises inside, fans wondered if the company would make an exception when the Falcons played on, ya know, Sundays during the regular season. It did not and has not. On Sundays, the stadium restaurant serves as a really expensive brand advertisement, while it acts as a restaurant the other six days of the week and is open during other events like concerts and college football games.

This closed-on-Sunday policy was created by Chick-fil-A's founder back in 1946. Most CFA's are packed Monday-Saturday. Every day is its Super Bowl — well, except Sundays. 

The bet: No