NFL prop bets for Week 13 and beyond

The Dallas Cowboys were 7 1/2-point underdogs on their home turf Thursday night. Oddsmakers believed the Saints were 7 1/2 points better than their NFC foe. As it turns out, the Cowboys defense is arguably one of league's best as they held a Saints offense averaging 37.2 points per game to 10. It's a heck of a way to kick off Week 13 as we waive buh-BYE to 2018 BYE weeks and say hello to a full-slate of NFL action this Sunday and Monday.

Odds: Baker Mayfield (+105) | Deshaun Watson (-135)

During the Browns two-game winning streak, Mayfield has posted QB ratings of 143.9 and 151.3. However, that came against two of the league's worst defenses in Atlanta and Cincinnati. Houston's front-seven pass rush is going to cause headaches Mayfield hasn't experienced in over a month. Watson has posted QB ratings north of 125.0 in three of his past four games. While improved, the Browns defense still has holes the Texans offense can expose.

The Bet: Watson

Odds: Yes (-220) | No (+155)

Rivers completed his first 25 pass attempts against the Arizona Cardinals last Sunday. He finished 28-of-29 and set records for most completions to start a game and highest completion percentage in a game. The veteran trigger also tied the record for most consecutive completions. However, there is a difference between carving up the Cardinals defense on your home turf and having to travel to Pittsburgh and face a motivated Steelers squad coming off a loss at Denver. Plus, Rivers will be without running back Melvin Gordon, which may allow for Pittsburgh's linebackers to drop back in pass coverage. It's too expensive to pick YES (Risk: $220 to win $100).

The Bet: No

Odds: Over 70.5 | Under 70.5

Cincinnati has allowed opposing running backs to rack up 100-or-more rushing yards in six of their past seven games. Lindsay has produced 86.8 yards per game over Denver's past five contests. His fantasy football projected rush totals (the basis for this O/U) are surprisingly low this week. Lindsay runs angry and with a chip on his shoulder after the Broncos gave him a shot as an undrafted free agent. He's must-see TV.

The Bet: OVER

Odds: Yes (+200) | No (-300)

A few weeks ago, a similar prop bet popped up regarding Jameis Winston's future with the Buccaneers. Unlike Tampa Bay's franchise quarterback, I think most Jaguars and avid NFL fans know it's time for Jacksonville to turn the page. Why? In this his fifth year, he's completing 60% of his passes, which ranks 30th ahead of three rookie quarterbacks and C.J. Beathard. Knowing they weren't going to a Super Bowl because of Bortles, Jacksonville drafted an elite running back in Leonard Fournette and built what was considered an elite defense. Unfortunately, that defense has regressed this season and, thus, magnified Bortles' flaws as an NFL quarterback once again.

The Bet: No

Odds: Over 235.5 (-120) | Under 235.5 (-120)

One of the best NFL anecdotes in recent years is when the Browns drafted Cody Kessler in the third round of the 2016 NFL Draft and then-head coach Hue Jackson said "You have to trust me on this one." Kessler is 0-8 as an NFL quarterback. He'll also be without starting running back Leonard Fournette who will be serving a one-game suspension. Bortles passed for 236-or-fewer yards in six out of 11 games this season. Kessler has thrown for more than 236 yards twice in his career. The Colts have allowed fewer than 205 pass yards the past two games.

The Bet: UNDER

Odds: Over 65.5 | Under 65.5

Did you know Reed was a quarterback his freshman season at Florida? That's why he has such perfect form prior to firing the football into the stands.

As for Week 13, the Eagles secondary is a depleted, injury-riddled mess and that could mean big things for Reed who is coming off the best two-week stretch of his 2018 season. He's averaged 73 receiving yards the past two games and everybody knows Colt McCoy's favorite target is going to be a check-down tight end.

The Bet: OVER

Odds: Over 2.5 | Under 2.5

He's thrown 3-or-more touchdowns in eight straight games. The Jaguars' secondary has allowed three passing touchdowns twice over the past four weeks. Plus, it looks like cornerback Jalen Ramsey won't suit up against the Colts. Everything's turning up Andrew.

The Bet: OVER

Odds: Over 1.5 | Under 1.5

Tampa Bay's secondary has allowed at least one opposing wide receiver to score a touchdown in EVERY game this season. While Carolina's rush offense ranks third, they're 21st in passing. However, Cam Newton has thrown 2-or-more touchdowns in all but one game this season. After losing at Detroit and to Seattle the past two weeks, the Panthers need to get this win to stay playoff relevant. I expect a big day out of Cam Newton - the passer.

The Bet: OVER

Odds: Over 29.5 | Under 29.5

Buffalo's rookie quarterback rushed 13 times for 99 yards against the Jaguars last weekend. In six other games, he's averaging 25.8 rush yards per game. Buffalo is desperate for offensive production any way they can get it. While it's not ideal to have a franchise quarterback run 13 times per week, Allen can pick up 30 yards on 5-6 carries this week.

The Bet: OVER

Odds: Yes (-450) | No (+275)

The Packers host the Cardinals and Falcons the next two weeks. Green Bay then travels to Chicago - where the Bears will look to lock down an NFC North crown - before facing the Jets at Metlife Stadium Week 16. Here is why this prop bet's price tag is so expensive (Risk $450 to win $100). With or without Sam Darnold behind center, New York remains a work-in-progress and for as bad as the Packers have been this season, they are not as bad as Gang Green; home or away.

The Bet: Yes

Odds: Ezekiel Elliott (-120) | Todd Gurley (-110)

Before the Cowboys played Thursday night, only 31 rush yards separated Zeke and Gurley for the league-lead. While Todd's remaining schedule features some weak rush defenses, the Rams could throttle down their featured back's workload down the stretch to keep him fresh for what they hope is a deep playoff run. On the flip side, the Cowboys will be fighting for playoff position through Week 17. Elliott's workload will not vary down the stretch and he'll run away (no pun) with the rushing title.

The Bet: Zeke

Odds: Over 3.5 (+350) | Under (-600)

Eddie Jackson was named NFC Defensive Player of the Month this week. He's scored five defensive touchdowns in 27 games with three scores this season and two of them coming over the past two weeks. The last defensive player to score at this rate to start a career played when Ronald Reagan was president.

The Bet: There's not enough time, UNDER

Favorites: NY Jets (+300) | Raiders (+600) | Eagles/Bucs (+800)

Oakland has $100-million invested in their head coach Jon Gruden. His first season has been a nightmare and the Raiders are about to move to Las Vegas where they NEED to make a big splash. Derek Carr isn't belly-flopping in the Mandalay Bay pool.

The Bet: Rrrrraiders.

Odds: Yes (+170) | No (-250)

Browns interim head coach Gregg Williams' expression is worth more than 1,000 words. 

As for Hue, the bottom line is he's won 11 games in four years as head coach of the Browns and Raiders.Cleveland has also played inspired football since Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Haley were fired. These facts aren't ringing endorsements to promote Jackson if/when Marvin Lewis is canned by the Bengals.

The Bet: No

Favorites: Drew Brees (-500) | Patrick Mahomes (+400) | Andrew Luck (+900)

The Colts' current five-game win streak and fact Andrew Luck has thrown three-or-more touchdowns in eight consecutive games has propelled Indy's franchise quarterback into the MVP conversation. Mahomes has completed better than 70 percent of his passes in five straight games. However, Drew Brees leads the NFL in completion percentage and has thrown just three interceptions all season. Considering Brees broke Peyton Manning's all-time passing record earlier this season and with how well the Saints offense has played, it's hard to imagine the veteran quarterback being overlooked for this honor.

The Bet: Brees