NFL Survivor Pool: 1 in 5 is good, right?

Last week Tampa Bay was the choice against Atlanta. I have to admit I was regretting it during the week when injury news about Tom Brady wasn't very encouraging. Then Tampa was winning 21-0 at halftime against the Falcons on Sunday so it looked like a lock. 

I kind of stopped watching at that point, but if you follow the NFL you know it was far from over. Long story short, we got the win, moving to 1-4 in this space — hence the headline. 

Now to refresh, all we are trying to do here is pick one outright winner per week without using the same team twice. I know, I am not killing it

P.S. In most pools there are only about 10% remaining. 

Survivor Pool Teams Used So Far:  Tennessee Titans, Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Chargers, Detroit Lions and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  

Week 6 Survivor Pool Recommendation

This is the first week with teams on a bye this season. The four teams with the week off are Detroit, Tennessee, Houston and Las Vegas. A couple of those teams have already been used so there is not much concern there. However, Houston (off a rare win) and Vegas (off a tough loss and with a short week) might have been teams to fade this week so not being able to do so is a tad limiting.

Looking more broadly at the slate for Week 6 we see only a few games that the markets predict will not be competitive (favorites of seven or more points). One of those is Tampa, who we just won with, so that was going to be off the table anyway. After last week's win I am pretty confident we can find another one this week.

The Pick: Los Angeles Rams

The defending champs did not look good against Dallas last week (there is no way to sugarcoat it). Nevertheless, they are still favored by 10 points against a Carolina team that just turfed its coach. That is a pretty wide swing because their offensive lines are not going to be immediately solved just because their opponent is lighter than the week before. I am leaning hard on Rams coach Sean McVay in this spot. I think we can rally a team that has had it handed to them the last couple of weeks by teams they want to be able to compete with. The Rams might be 2-3 but they are just a game behind San Francisco so it is not like all is lost, at least not yet. This week might be his best coaching job of his career.

Looking at the Rams schedule, now is the time to play them because the next few weeks are going to be a challenge. After this week they are home to SF, followed by a trip to Tampa and then home for Arizona, another division game. Things are rocky right now but fading the Panthers makes sense and if you are not playing the Rams now you are waiting a really long time to do so. Home against Seattle on December 4? That feels very far away for those survivor players that are truly still alive.