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Green Bay Packers defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt (95) chases Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16). Wm. Glasheen / USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK

NFL Thanksgiving Week 12: Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions betting picks, preview

By Matt Wiesenfeld | Last updated 11/21/23

Turkey Day football kicks off with a classic matchup between NFC North rivals the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions. This time around, it is Detroit that is the much better team, something that has not been the case for about a couple of decades.

Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions betting odds, preview

Spread: Lions -7.5, Over/under: 47, Moneyline: Packers +275 | Lions -350

This spread is going to be inviting for those who play the metrics more than the teams. It makes sense that the Lions are somewhat inflated after last week's impressive comeback victory too. If they lose that game, this one would definitely be under the magic number of seven. The first game on Thanksgiving is a spot bettors are going to want to be in on too.

The Packers probably dodged a bullet with former quarterback Aaron Rodgers getting hurt early in the season. I say that because even though the team has struggled, they are not having to see Rodgers and the Jets win week after week so it takes away some of the sting of the whole thing.

The Lions won easily, 34-20, in the first meeting between these teams this season. They have won and covered in four straight against the Packers. They were just -2.5 in Green Bay back in September. This is a big move and a sign of how much the market believes in Detroit.

Thanksgiving Football betting picks

Lions -7.5

Even with an inflated number I still like the Lions. One thing that Detroit keeps proving is that their offense works. They might not always want to need so many points so late in the game, but that group is effective and dynamic.

With this game at home and on Thanksgiving, I see no reason why it will not look a lot like the first time these teams met at Lambeau. In that game, Detroit QB Jared Goff was effective while RB David Montgomery carried the ball 32 times for 121 yards and three touchdowns. Unsurprisingly, Green Bay QB Jordan Love and the Packers' offense struggled. Love threw a couple of picks and Green Bay rushed for just 27 yards. I know we are in a more pass-happy league than ever before, but you need a little more balance than that unless you have elite quarterback play. Green Bay does not have that.

Just for a little something extra, the Detroit defense has been picking up steam of late too. They sacked Love five times in that win and made a massive play to seal the win last week.

An even -7 would be better than -7.5 but a strong home performance by Detroit more than gets the job done.

Anders Carlson Over 1.5 Field Goals (+130)

Carlson hit for a couple of field goals the last time these teams met. I think Green Bay is going to be forced to take points where they can to try and be competitive on Thursday. He has made a couple of field goals in two of the last three and has enough leg to get into the 50+ range. That might be especially valuable in Detroit.

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