Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown (11). Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

NFL 'TNF' Week 2 player props: Why pick just one Philly WR?

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 9/13/23

The Philadelphia Eagles passing attack seems to be in a good place heading into Thursday Night Football, and it's there we go.

Philly has one of the best 1-2 WR tandems in the league in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. It makes watching the offense fun, but it can also be a headache when trying to choose who between the two is set for a big game.

Lightbulb moment: what if we just bet on both of them?

1u: A.J. Brown 60+ receiving yards, DeVonta Smith 50+ receiving yards (+122 FD)

Let the record show, I prefer A.J. Brown here. I may end up using one of those risk-free bets on Brown to go for 100+ and a touchdown.

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Before we return to the receivers, we should probably get on the same page about this Minnesota defense. The secondary is an issue, which I highlighted in more detail along with other secondaries on my Substack. Last year, their pass defense ranked inside the bottom 10 in both DVOA and PFF grades, and they were among the league-leaders in yards allowed per pass attempt and 20+ yard passes allowed.

In Week 1, they may have done a solid job at limiting explosive plays, but both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were still involved. Evans caught six balls for 66 yards, while Godwin caught five for 51. Brown very much has that Evans role in this offense, while Smith comps better to Godwin.

And look at that, we're asking for the same type of yardage split between these two Eagles that we saw out of Tampa's top weapons.

Brown's line is set at 75.5, so we're operating at a discount here needing just 60+ yards. He's hit this number in 15 of his 21 games in Philadelphia, including 69 yards on five receptions last season against Minnesota.

Smith has gone for 50+ in 10 of his last 12 games and dropped 80 yards on seven catches against the Vikings last season.

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Jalen Hurts is targeting both of these guys at nearly the same split: Brown's averaging 9.1 targets/game in his last 10 and saw 10 targets Week 1. Smith is averaging 8.9 targets/game in his past 10 and also saw 10 targets in Week 1.

As evidenced by how often both these receivers are hitting these numbers, there's plenty to go around in this offense. Cheers to both having themselves a solid Thursday night in Philly's home-opener.

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