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NFL underdogs off to best start to season since 1960

Originally posted on Action Network | By Chase Howell | Last updated Oct 8, 2024 10:00 PM ET

The dogs have been barking during the first five weeks of the NFL regular season.

Underdogs of six points or more are on a historic run. It is not just sports betting these ‘dogs have impacted; thy’ve had a ripple effect in survivor and pick’em contests, as these ‘dogs are winning outright.

Underdogs of six points or more are 16-2-2 (88.9%) against the spread through five games for a return on investment of 66%. In layman’s terms, a $100 bettor would be up $1,254 if they bet on every underdog of six-plus points.

In the last 20 years, 65% ATS for 6+-point ‘dogs is the closest any season has been to this mark through four weeks. But it doesn’t stop there. These ‘dogs are 11-8 straight up. This is the first time since 1960 that underdogs of six points or more are above .500 through the first five weeks.

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For comparison, ‘dogs of 6+ were 3-14 SU through four weeks last year and 20-87-1 SU (18.7%) between 2019-23 through the first four weeks of the season. Dogs of 6+ haven’t been above .500 SU through four weeks since 1983.

It is the best ATS record and the best moneyline profit going back to 1960. The other two best records were 1982 (3-1 ATS) and 1978 (18-6-1).

This phenomenon has completely blown up survivor pools, including the popular one at Circa Sports. There were 14,266 original entries in the contest, and just 221 (or 1.55%) remain after the bloodbath of the first five weeks.

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