NFL Week 11: Picks and preview

STREAMING: PRIME VIDEO            LINE: Green Bay -3.5

It wasn’t a Rembrandt, but they usually aren’t for the Titans. Tennessee did use a little razzle-dazzle to put away Denver, with Nick Westbrook-Ikhine scoring the game’s decisive touchdown on a flea-flicker, and then the defense did its typical thing – stand tall in a big moment – to seal the win, picking off Russell Wilson late. Tennessee has won 6 of 7 after an 0-2 start, and when Ryan Tannehill is in, they’re just a tough, annoying out. Did Christian Watson play the greatest game by a wide receiver that included losing a likely touchdown in the lights? Probably. Watson caught three touchdowns, including the game-tying score with just over two minutes left, and as a result, the Packers got a win they desperately needed over Dallas. Aaron Rodgers didn’t throw often, but he was devastating when he did, and the Packers’ run game rolled up 207 yards on the Cowboys. Is this the start of a resurgence in Green Bay? This game will go a long way toward answering that question.

Look smart to your friends:

-Ryan Tannehill is taking good care of the ball, a big item for a team that plays the way the Titans do. He’s looking for his fifth-straight game with no interceptions.

-Christian Watson finally had a breakout game that Packers fans were waiting for and is the only rookie this season with three receiving touchdowns in a single game.

The pick: Packers 21 Titans 20

TV: FOX            LINE: Atlanta -3.5

Two months ago, I doubt anyone would have guessed that Justin Fields would turn into the league’s must-see player, but here we are. Fields has been nothing short of spectacular for approximately the last month or so, never more so than in the Bears’ last three games; Fields has 441 yards passing and 7 touchdowns and 385 yards rushing along with 4 touchdowns in that span. Of course, Chicago is 0-3 in those games, and they’ve given up 115 points. We must remind ourselves, dear friends, that the Falcons, despite getting pushed around by Carolina last Thursday, are still a mere game out of first place in the NFC South. That said, Cordarrelle Patterson didn’t seem happy with his workload – or lack thereof – against the Panthers, and Marcus Mariota has been shaky enough of late that calls for Desmond Ridder are getting very loud. Still, they’re technically a contender, and they should be able to score on the Bears; everyone else does.

Look smart to your friends:

-Fields is setting or matching some sort of obscure record every week, it seems, and last week was no different. He became the fourth player ever with a 50+ yard passing touchdown and a 50+ yard rushing touchdown in the same game.

-Rashaan Evans will be busy in this game, and he’s likely up to the challenge. He has 6 games with 10+ tackles this year, tied for second-most in the league.

The pick: Bears 28 Falcons 27

TV: CBS            LINE: Buffalo -7.5

Cleveland is 6-11 in its last 17 games. That’s bad, in case you were wondering. The Browns were powerless to stop anything the Dolphins wanted to do last week, giving up nearly 500 yards of offense and never looking particularly competitive. Kevin Stefanski’s team is getting left behind in the AFC, such that even a red-hot streak to end the season won’t save them. Cleveland’s roster still looks good, but that makes the job Stefanski has done that much more disappointing. Buffalo has now lost two in a row, and the Bills blew double-digit leads in both games. Is it a hiccup? Probably. It’s worth mentioning those blown leads, though, because, to some degree, they’re connected to the team’s utter inability to run the ball effectively. Josh Allen is good enough that much of this shouldn’t matter, but he and the Bills look too sloppy and unfocused right now. We’ve seen that with offensive juggernauts before, but usually earlier in the season than this.

Look smart to your friends:

-There might be two feet of snow on the ground for this game, and that’s Nick Chubb weather. He had 116 yards in his last game against Buffalo, and has 6 rushing touchdowns in his last five games against AFC East opponents.

-Stefon Diggs has been just about unstoppable at home this year; he has 100+ receiving yards in all four Bills home games this season, and a receiving touchdown in three of those four.

The pick: Bills 20 Browns 16

TV: CBS            LINE: Philadelphia -7

The Eagles laid an egg against Washington, and as a result fell from the ranks of the unbeatens. (Side note: Congrats to the ’72 Dolphins. Enjoy popping your champagne bottles, blah blah blah.) Jalen Hurts didn’t play particularly well at all, A.J. Brown had a ball go off his hands, and Washington took it to Philadelphia up front to get the win. I wouldn’t worry too much about it, Eagles fans. These games are called “blips.” I can’t help but think that Jeff Saturday’s highly-scrutinized debut as Indianapolis’ interim head coach wouldn’t have gone as well as it did with Sam Ehlinger playing quarterback. Matt Ryan was solid, and even ripped off a 39-yard run, which in Matt Ryan Yards might as well have been 1,000. Jonathan Taylor ran for 147 in his own right, and the Colts looked competent and then some. Of course, I would be remiss if I did not mention that they were playing the Raiders. Heads up, Jeff, this one’s a varsity game.

Look smart to your friends:

-Brown might have had an awful game last week, but the last time he played the Colts in Indy, he lit them up, with 10 catches, 155 yards and a touchdown.

-Zaire Franklin will be busy, given that Hurts will likely be active as a runner. Franklin is tops in the AFC and second in the NFL this season with 96 tackles.

The pick: Eagles 24 Colts 20

TV: CBS            LINE: New England -3.5

The Jets got a bye week to bask in the glory of their shocking win over Buffalo, but New York fans ought to hope that Zach Wilson took the extra time off to improve, both in terms of being able to go downfield more successfully, while also managing the ball more carefully. New York’s going to have to win lots of back-alley rock fights the rest of the way; Wilson just isn’t good enough yet for them to rely on him. Problem is, the Patriots are more than happy to function as a boulder when Gang Green is on the schedule. Bill Belichick’s team is a quiet 4-1 in their last five games, and other than taking a strafing from Justin Fields, they’ve been stingy against the run, reversing an ugly early-season trend. If Mac Jones were playing better, this would feel like a total no-brainer. However, his 89.2 passer rating in Week 9 against the Colts was his highest of the year. Just so you know, the league average this year is…89.2.

Look smart to your friends:

-Sauce Gardner continues to impress in his rookie season; he leads the NFL with 13 passes defensed, and is one of three players in the NFL (James Bradberry and Tariq Woolen) with a pass defensed in 8+ games this season.

-Matthew Judon is having a monster year. He leads the NFL with 11.5 sacks, and has 8.5 of said sacks in his four home games this season.

The pick: Patriots 24 Jets 14

TV: FOX            LINE: New Orleans -3

The Rams stink. You already knew that. They more or less sold out for a title last year, and fortunately, managed to get to the top of the mountain. The devil has come to collect in 2022, and even though Cooper Kupp avoided a “worst-case scenario” with his ankle injury, he still got placed on injured reserve. But hey, at least we got to watch John Wolford stink it up at quarterback instead of Matt Stafford. Variety is the spice of life, they say. I’ll confess that I haven’t watched every snap of Saints football this year, and thank god for that. New Orleans is, like the Rams, not a good team. Andy Dalton is going to hang onto the starting job, which…yeah, I don’t really have a good reason for it, either. The Saints were physically dominated by Pittsburgh in the second half, and in most years, you’d respond to that news with, “Yeah, so what?” Thing is, this year’s Steelers haven’t been able to do that sort of thing at all. Dennis Allen needs to get back to the drawing board.

Look smart to your friends:

-Not much nice to say about the Rams right now, but Tyler Higbee ranks third among tight ends with 44 catches this year. Good job, Tyler!

-Alvin Kamara had nothing going last week, but in three career games against the Rams, he has 364 scrimmage yards and five total touchdowns.

The pick: Saints 17 Rams 16

TV: FOX            LINE: New York -3

Well well well, look at the plucky Detroit Lions, winners of two games in a row and, ah, ahahahaha, not dead in the water when it comes to the playoff chase. I mean, don’t get me wrong, they’re almost certainly not going to make it, but the fact that I have to even acknowledge the possibility is very funny. I’m not sure how much can be extrapolated from this modest winning streak; the Packers clearly hit rock-bottom against Detroit, and the Bears can’t stop anyone, but wins are wins, and now Dan Campbell finally has one on the road. The Giants continued to execute their game plan to perfection. Their game plan, in case you haven’t been paying attention, is to grind every opponent to dust with Saquon Barkley, while getting enough plays from Daniel Jones in the passing game to keep opposing defenses honest. Barkley went for 152 yards on a career-high 35 carries against the Texans, which probably isn’t a sustainable long-term plan, but like most things for New York this year, it was good enough to get a win, and that’s all that matters.

Look smart to your friends:

-Can Jared Goff make it three wins in a row? His brief career track record against the Giants is encouraging. Goff has 511 passing yards, 5 touchdowns and no interceptions (good for a 132.6 passer rating) in two career games against New York.

-Barkley not only had a huge game last week, but based on his last outing against Detroit, another could be in the offing. He went for 132 scrimmage yards and a receiving touchdown the last time the teams played.

The pick: Lions 27 Giants 23

TV: FOX            LINE: Baltimore -13

Carolina proved once and for all that the NFC South is a silly little joke of a division in 2022 with what they did to the Falcons last Thursday night, but if there’s one takeaway worth internalizing, it’s that D’Onta Foreman runs with the kind of power and conviction that can become a calling card for a franchise. Foreman thrashed the Falcons for 130 yards and a touchdown, his third 100-yard game in his last four, and second this year against the Falcons. At the very least, the Panthers should be able to give Baltimore a tough 30 minutes, maybe more. The Ravens have reeled off three straight wins after a 3-3 start, all of them grinding, impressive victories, including the last two away from Baltimore, and the most recent one without Mark Andrews, whose status is not encouraging, as of this writing. Their reward was some time off, and then a schedule that does not look at all that daunting the rest of the way. What would make the Ravens truly scary is the emergence of an actual threat at wide receiver. Alas, that still seems far off.

Look smart to your friends:

-Brian Burns, who you will recall the Panthers refused to trade despite there being huge offers floating around, is one of just four players in the league with 7+ sacks in each of the past four seasons.

-Justin Houston has a chance at some history; he can become the first player since 2002 (Simeon Rice) with 2+ sacks in four straight games.

The pick: Ravens 27 Panthers 19

TV: FOX            LINE: Washington -3

Washington’s defense took it to the Eagles, and Washington’s offense was grinding out yards and did enough to push Philadelphia back, and the result was a win that knocked the league’s last unbeaten from its perch, and kept the Commanders very relevant in the NFC playoff race. Carson Wentz is making progress on his quest to return, but even though Taylor Heinicke’s numbers have hardly been impressive, he’s got “juice,” as they say. The real driving force behind Washington’s success is a defensive line that has been fearsome, and looks like it might get Chase Young back for this game. The Texans were battling, and trying to hang tough with the Giants, and then back-to-back possessions ended in a fumble and an interception, and that was basically all she wrote. At 1-7-1, and owning the “tiebreaker” against the Raiders (read: they lost to them), things are looking very good on the “race to the bottom” front for Houston. Is there really anything else to say about the Texans? Seriously, I’m asking, and it’s my job to come up with things to say. I’ve got nothing. It’s pretty clear what this franchise is focused on, and for good reason.

Look smart to your friends:

-Heinicke clearly has his best away from home; he’s 5-1 in his past six road starts, and has 8 total touchdowns (7 passing, 1 rushing) in those games.

-Dameon Pierce gets all the rookie attention on Houston, but Jalen Pitre has been quietly solid in the secondary, ranking third among all rookies with 63 tackles.

The pick: Texans 26 Commanders 20

TV: FOX            LINE: Denver -3

Year in and year out, it’s nice to have the Raiders around as a reliable punching bag. And yes, I say that knowing they made the playoffs last year, and gave the eventual AFC champion Bengals a good game. But after a gaudy offseason, Las Vegas has reverted to its usual, dysfunctional form. Josh McDaniels has been terrible, and has taken the team backward, and just got beat by a guy whose head-coaching experience was a 20-16 high school record. The more things change, the more they stay the same. Denver’s brush with competence was fleeting; the Broncos got themselves a win against Jacksonville two weeks ago, but a week off did not bring continued improvement. Instead, the offense sputtered, Jerry Jeudy got hurt, and Russell Wilson threw a game-sealing interception when Denver still had a realistic chance to tie. This is a bad football team that will likely be looking for a new head coach, and soon. Hey, by the way, remember when these two teams were supposed to be 50 percent of the best division in football? Haha, me neither. I hate this game, but also love its comedic potential, which will be reflected in my pick.

Look smart to your friends:

-Rumors are swirling that McDaniels’ job is safe is at least in part because the Raiders are too cash-poor to fire him. That’s not a football stat, but I did find it funny, and hope you do, too.

-Wilson has 3 touchdowns and no interceptions and a 104.7 passer rating in two games against AFC West opponents this season. Somehow I doubt that stat brings Broncos fans much comfort, particularly with rumors swirling that he’s calling audibles using old Seahawks code words.

The pick: Raiders 6 Broncos 3

TV: CBS            LINE: Dallas -1.5

The Cowboys need to fix their run defense, and fast, because what happened in Green Bay can’t keep happening. Dallas clearly has the offense to keep up with anyone, but they let a reeling Packers team up off the deck and had no answers in the secondary for Christian Watson. The loss was particularly painful given Philadelphia’s loss, as a win would have pulled Dallas to within a game of the Eagles in the NFC East. Their reward for that bad loss? The Vikings! Minnesota won the game of the year, and a game with one of the unlikeliest endings in recent memory last week. The ending was so crazy that Justin Jefferson’s catch, very possibly the greatest in league history – seriously – almost felt like an afterthought. The Vikings have good skill players, good edge talent, good tackle play, and have had some good luck this year. Their quarterback, in keeping with the “good” theme, is also playing more consistently good football than he has in years past. Minnesota needs Philadelphia to lose again, but the Vikings absolutely have a shot at the NFC’s top seed.

Look smart to your friends:

-Jerry Jones might like Ezekiel Elliott and routinely give him credit for Dallas’ running success, but the numbers don’t lie, and Tony Pollard’s 6.0 yards per carry leads all running backs with at least 100 attempts.

-The Vikings’ win last week marked just the second time since the 1970 merger that a trailing team scored a go-ahead defensive touchdown in the final minute of a game.

The pick: Vikings 30 Cowboys 20

TV: CBS            LINE: Cincinnati -4

The Bengals had a week to rest up, though they will still be without Ja’Marr Chase for this one. That said, Cincinnati does have plenty of weapons even without their star wide receiver, but it's inarguable that teams can defend them a little differently when he isn’t around. Joe Mixon had a monster game in Week 9’s win over the Panthers, and getting him going early would go a long way towards avenging Cincy’s season-opening loss to the Steelers. Pittsburgh got T.J. Watt back and their defense looked completely different, harassing Andy Dalton all game long and shutting out the Saints in the second half. Alex Highsmith, in particular, benefited from Watt’s presence, tallying two sacks, giving him 8.5 on the year, good for second in the AFC. The Steelers also ran for a season-high 217 yards. In other words, it was a throwback win for a team that desperately needed a win, no matter how they got it.

Look smart to your friends:

-Mixon’s big performance against the Panthers was also historic. He became just the sixth player in the Super Bowl era with 200+ scrimmage yards and 5 touchdowns in a single game.

-Historically, Watt terrorizes the Bengals. He’s got 7.5 sacks in his last 7 games against Cincy, and is looking for his fifth-straight home game against the Bengals with a sack.

The pick: Bengals 24 Steelers 21

TV: NBC            LINE: Kansas City -6

The Chiefs were on cruise control against Jacksonville, jumping out to a 17-0 lead and never bothering to put the pedal fully down on the Jaguars. That’s the mark of a team pacing itself for the playoffs, at least from my vantage point. As of now, the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC runs through Kansas City, and that’s very bad news indeed for the rest of the conference. Oh, and Kadarius Toney has his first career touchdown catch last week, too. The Chargers gave it a valiant effort against San Francisco, particularly in light of their injury situation, but it wasn’t enough in the end. The problem for Los Angeles is that Justin Herbert just can’t get himself going. He’s probably (okay, definitely) hurt, but he also just isn’t playing that well in his last four games, even accounting for any aches and pains. If Herbert doesn’t get it going, the Chargers aren’t going anywhere this season, but you probably already knew that.

Look smart to your friends:

-How about some love for Kansas City’s defense? Nick Bolton is a tackling machine, had 14 tackles and 3 passes defensed the last time the Chiefs played the Chargers on the road, and is looking for his fifth-straight game with a tackle for loss.

-Maybe an appearance in prime time is what Herbert needs to get himself going. He has 375+ passing yards and 3+ touchdown passes in 2 of his 3 career starts on Sunday Night Football.

The pick: Chiefs 33 Chargers 30

TV: ESPN            LINE: San Francisco -8

The Niners showed some resiliency in grinding out a come-from-behind victory against the Chargers. San Francisco’s defense pitched a second-half shutout, and the offense, though it wasn’t putting up huge numbers, did enough to get the win, though Kyle Shanahan’s late-game strategy was curious, to say the least. I’ve said it once, and I’ll say it again; their record might be modest, but as long as this team stays healthy, and Jimmy Garoppolo plays smart, no one wants a piece of the 49ers in the postseason. The Cardinals got a win against the Rams last week in large part because of a businesslike outing from backup quarterback Colt McCoy. He wasn’t spectacular, but he was steady, and Arizona benefited from the fact that Los Angeles is a dumpster fire at the moment. Kyler Murray’s status is still up in the air as he tries to recover from a hamstring injury, but at the very least, Arizona should feel like it is in capable hands with McCoy. However, the 49ers are a much tougher test than what he faced last week.

Look smart to your friends:

-Christian McCaffrey typically lights up the Cardinals. He’s looking for his third game in a row against Arizona with 9+ receptions and his fourth in a row with 100+ scrimmage yards.

-It’s a bit of a strange streak, but it is a streak. James Conner has 50+ scrimmage yards in 14 straight games, which is tied for the third-longest active streak in the NFL. He also has 125+ scrimmage yards and a touchdown in three of his past four Monday Night Football appearances.

The pick: 49ers 31 Cardinals 20