NFL Week 11 betting guide: Niners-Cardinals on 'MNF'

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals on 'MNF'

Spread: San Francisco -8

Total: 43.5 points

This feels like far too big of a spread for a divisional game, and far more many points for a road team to be favored by. The Cardinals beat the 49ers in both games last season, and while Kyler Murray missed last game, it seems he's progressing toward playing. We'll take the points.

Betting: Cardinals +8

Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills

Spread: Buffalo -8.5

Total: 42.5 points

With a Buffalo forecast calling for three to six feet of snow, this game has been moved to Detroit, which has us officially liking the over. The Browns are the best over team in the NFL at 6-2-1, and Buffalo should be able to pour on 35+ points on their own against this defense. We sense a bit of frustration coming out in the form of Bills dominance after they've dropped two straight games.

Betting: Over 42.5 points

Philadelphia Eagles @ Indianapolis Colts

Spread: Philadelphia -7

Total: 44.5 points

Suddenly the Eagles look human, and they've suffered some tough injuries all over the field. The Texans and Commanders have kept the past two games close by running the ball and keeping the Philly offense on the sideline. We expect the Colts to replicate that approach with Jonathan Taylor leading the way. We think the Eagles win, but it's a big spread for a road game on short rest.

Betting: Colts +7

Detroit Lions @ New York Giants

Spread: New York -3

Total: 45 points

The Giants are 7-2 overall and 7-2 ATS, and while Detroit has picked up some wins the past few weeks, they have a glaring weakness on the ground. Well, that's just about all New York does, so we'd expect a big Saquon Barkley game powering the Giants eighth win of the year.

Betting: Giants -3

New York Jets @ New England Patriots

Spread: New England -3.5

Total: 38 points

The Patriots lead the NFL in touchdowns allowed to TEs, and a big reason why is their 10/30 game against these Jets. Starting tight end Tyler Conklin, who has dominated targets from the TE group, scored twice, finishing the week with six catches for 79 yards. Why would we not look his way once again? The odds are fantastic.

Betting: Tyler Conklin TD (+450 DK)

Carolina Panthers @ Baltimore Ravens

Spread: Baltimore -13

Total: 41.5 points

The Panthers' run defense is one of the league's worst, both allowing plenty of yards and touchdowns on the ground. It sounds like Gus Edwards will be back and involved, but it's so hard to figure out how this Baltimore backfield will shake out. Instead of guessing the running back, why don't we look to Lamar Jackson? He's over his prop line in five of his last eight games, and the Panthers pass-rush may actually make him a bit uncomfortable in the pocket on Sunday.

Betting: Lamar Jackson over 61.5 rushing yards (-115 DK)

Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Atlanta -3

Total: 49 points

Justin Fields has looked absolutely electric the past few weeks, and hope is alive and well for Chicago fans. This season is progressing just how the Bears probably want: see Fields develop into a true franchise QB while still losing games and strengthening their draft position. Unfortunately, we see the latter failing this week. The Falcons have not looked great for a month now, and the Bears are just fun.

Betting: Bears +3

Washington Commanders @ Houston Texans

Spread: Washington -3

Total: 41 points

There seems to be a rule in place: starting running backs must get 100+ yards and a touchdown when they face the Texans. Houston is allowing the most rushing yards per game and have seen three straight running backs go for 140+ yards. While they split work, it's Brian Robinson who is getting the bulk of the carries, averaging 16.8 over his last five. He's not efficient with the ball, but the volume alone against this team makes Robinson a play for us.

Betting: Brian Robinson over 63.5 rushing yards (-115)

Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints

Spread: New Orleans -3

Total: 39 points

Both the Rams and Saints have looked quite horrid this season. With Cooper Kupp now out, this Los Angeles offense is about to find its ugliest form yet. The Saints are one of the NFL's worst this year, but at home we'll take them to win this one in a game we'd be happier not watching.

Betting: Saints -3

Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos

Spread: Denver -3

Total: 41 points

We've got two AFC West teams that have drastically underperformed to expectations set during the offseason, as the additions of Davante Adams and Russell Wilson has not delivered the impact we thought. Both teams are 3-6 ATS and have not looked good. We'll roll with the under here, the Broncos are the most profitable under team in the NFL, having hit in eight of nine games this season.

Betting: Under 41 points

Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Dallas -1.5

Total: 47.5 points

This is a curious spread, what's the catch? The Vikings are 8-1 and fresh off a big win on the road against the Bills. The Cowboys just fell to the Packers and sit at 6-3. This one has put us in a bit of a pickle, with the public and books clearly still considering Dallas the more talented team. We kind of agree the more we think about it, and could see the Vikings due for a letdown game after the crazy Week 10 performance they put on.

Betting: Cowboys -1.5

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Cincinnati -4

Total: 41 points

No team has allowed more touchdowns to wide receivers than Pittsburgh, who have gotten gashed by wide outs on a seemingly weekly basis. With Ja'Marr Chase still sidelined, we turn to Tyler Boyd for a big game. He has scored in two of his last three against the Steelers and has seen a solid flow of targets from Joe Burrow each week.

Betting: Tyler Boyd TD (+160 DK)

Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers on 'SNF'

Spread: Kansas City -6

Total: 51 points

It seems like Justin Herbert may finally have his full arsenal of receivers healthy and together, which would come at a critical time for the Chargers. Los Angeles is 6-3 ATS, covered against the Chiefs on the road last time, and with Kansas City's leaky secondary, this could be just what the doctor ordered to get Herbert and company on track.

Betting: Chargers +6