NFL Week 11 predictions

Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET (NFL Network)

The Titans are a sneaky 6-3, and would vault ahead of the Steelers in the AFC standings with a win. The secondary remains a weakness for Tennessee, but their pass rush is intriguing, and while Marcus Mariota has seen his play trend downward from last year, the Titans' thriving running game has helped make up for it. Pittsburgh's offense has been disappointing, racking up plenty of yards, but ranking a very pedestrian 19th in points per game, and having the second-worst red zone touchdown percentage in the league. For all their weapons, the Steelers have yet to score 30 points in a game this year. The other four teams to share that dubious distinction are a combined 7-29. Pittsburgh will win, but it's doubtful they'll run away with this one.

Pick: Pittsburgh

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

The Lions seem like the only NFC North team equipped to make a run at Minnesota, and taking care of business on the road against the woeful Bears would be another step in that process, especially with the Vikings facing a stiff test against the Rams. Detroit surrendered lots of yards to the hapless Browns, so it will be interesting to see if Chicago can get some long drives going against them. Mitch Trubisky was actually pretty good against Green Bay last week, and Detroit is weak against the pass, but if the Bears want to spring the upset, they'll have to get more production from Jordan Howard than what he delivered against the Packers. 

Pick: Lions

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

The Jags are, somewhat understandably, becoming a bit of a trendy pick to wreak havoc in the AFC playoffs, so long as they get there. Jacksonville ranks in the top ten in both points scored and points allowed, as well as yards gained and yards allowed. It stands to reason that they'll strengthen their standing in all four categories against a Browns team that appears more and more likely to go 0-16 with each passing week. DeShone Kizer and the Browns piled up yardage against the Lions, but still lost emphatically. Kizer, who is nothing if not turnover-prone, could be in for a long day against a ball-hawking Jacksonville secondary. Going into Cleveland and pummeling a bad team wouldn't necessarily be some further sign that the Jags are for real, but it would show that they are handling the winnable games in a businesslike manner. 

Pick: Jaguars

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Before the season, you wouldn't have had to squint to see this game as a tilt between serious contenders. Okay, perhaps you'd have had to squint a little bit at Baltimore, but it wouldn't have been the craziest stretch. Now, the teams are a combined 9-9 on the year, and even though Green Bay is coming off of a win against Chicago, both squads appear to be dead in the water, at least as far as the playoffs are concerned. Brett Hundley appears to have parroted some of Aaron Rodgers' mannerisms, as his crucial touchdown throw last week was vintage Rodgers, but he's still got a long way to go. The Ravens still have Joe Flacco, but given that he's thrown more interceptions than touchdowns while posting a passer rating in the low 70s, that seems like more of a negative than a positive.

Pick: Packers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

Is there a worse game this week? This one would seem to take the cake. Tampa Bay is going nowhere fast, even with last week's ugly win over the Jets, and the Dolphins, whose outlook seemed improbably promising a few weeks ago, have completely cratered. Miami's problems seem too numerous to list, and though they are still 4-5, they're starting to take on the look of one of the worst teams in football. Is Tampa Bay any better? Probably not, and Dirk Koetter's job may be in jeopardy. On one hand, if the Bucs like Koetter, perhaps they'll be motivated to play well and give him the best chance of sticking around. On the other hand, Miami is at home. This game is not only difficult to pick, but also tough to care much about.

Pick: Buccaneers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

If Miami-Tampa Bay is the worst game of the week, this match-up is pretty clearly the best. Minnesota's defense continues to impress, though they were uncharacteristically weak against Washington. Mike Zimmer should garner serious consideration for coach of the year honors, as well. They face perhaps their stiffest test of the year in the form of the Rams, who boast the league's top scoring offense, a bevy of weapons, including the suddenly spectacular Robert Woods, and a stingy, disruptive defense. The winner of this game has the inside track on possibly stealing home-field advantage from Philadelphia, though both squads have challenging schedules after this one. As good as the Vikings have been, Jared Goff and Los Angeles have been nothing short of a revelation. 

Pick: Rams

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

Things aren't great for the Redskins right now, but Washington still has much to play for. If they can find a way to spring the upset on the Saints, their schedule softens considerably the rest of the way, with their final six games all appearing very winnable. That said, getting past New Orleans in the Superdome will be an awfully tall task. Dennis Allen's work with the Saints' defense has been nothing short of spectacular, as the Saints haven't surrendered more than 347 total yards since their Week 2 humiliation at the hands of the Patriots. The only time they've given up more than 20 points since then was their 52-38 win over the Lions, but they scored three defensive touchdowns in that one, and their defense was only responsible for 24 Detroit points. There's no reason to believe that Kirk Cousins will be able to do enough to keep pace with a balanced, devastating New Orleans offense.

Pick: Saints

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Becoming San Francisco's first victim of the season was just the latest indignity for Ben McAdoo and the Giants, who are giving the Browns a run for their money as the NFL's worst outfit. The G-Men can't do anything well, and they didn't just lose against the 49ers, they got humiliated in the fourth quarter when the game was at least theoretically in reach. The only drama left in New York concerns McAdoo, who might not be safe, despite working for the usually conservative and patient Mara family. Kansas City has stumbled a bit since their hot start, and a visit to the Meadowlands might be just what they need to really get their mojo going. Should K.C. trip up, their grip over the AFC West would become much more tenuous, given that they still have the Raiders one more time, and already lost to the silver and black once this year. That shouldn't be much of an issue, though. It would be tough to take the Giants over anyone right now.

Pick: Chiefs

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

File this one in the same drawer as Miami-Tampa Bay. There just isn't much happening with either team, as Houston's hopes at making noise were dashed the minute Deshaun Watson was lost for the season, and Arizona will likely start Blaine Gabbert because of Drew Stanton's knee injury. It's hard not to watch the Texans and feel, at least from a selfish perspective, cheated by Watson's injury. With him, they were fast becoming one of the most entertaining teams in the league. Without him, they are as nondescript as it gets. Both teams, as currently constructed, can't really beat anyone good. Thing of it is, both teams, as currently constructed, aren't any good themselves. This one is shaping up to be a classic case of the resistible force versus the movable object. Write each team's name on piece of paper, close your eyes, and throw a dart.

Pick: Cardinals

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (FOX)

Desperation is making a quarterback change while still in the thick of a playoff race, especially when your quarterback is putting up solid if unspectacular numbers. Still, that's what the Bills have decided to do, installing Nathan Peterman as the starter over Tyrod Taylor. Peterman's start, coupled with Tom Savage getting the nod in Houston, makes Pitt the answer to the question, "what is the only college to have two alums as starting quarterbacks in the NFL this week?" Can Peterman be better than Taylor? That seems like asking a lot, and it's hard not to wonder if Sean McDermott will be kicking himself for this decision around the second quarter. The Chargers looked like they had life after winning three straight, but have dropped their last two games to tough opponents. They have, however, put up a tough fight in both contests, and the Bills seem ripe for the picking at the moment.

Pick: Chargers

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

Well, what do we have here? Yet another game between two massively disappointing teams going nowhere this year. Denver rolled over and played dead against New England, and Cincinnati couldn't hold a late lead against the Titans. The Broncos have gone from a team many thought would be a dark horse AFC Super Bowl representative, to a team virtually incapable of exceeding 20 points. The Bengals are still pretty good on defense, but Andy Dalton is wretched when pressured. Denver's 20 sacks put them squarely in the middle of the pack. This game may well hinge on one man – Von Miller. If Miller is disruptive and throws Dalton out of whack, the Broncos might be able to sneak away with a home win. The guess here is that the Bengals find a way to keep Dalton upright, and extend Denver's misery.

Pick: Bengals

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS) (Estadio Azteca; Mexico City, Mexico)

Oakland is desperate. They are laying in the weeds, already in possession of a win over the Chiefs. To make that matter in the AFC West race, they have to be more or less perfect the rest of the way. The Patriots, obviously, represent quite the impediment to that goal. New England's defense still hemorrhages yards, but the Pats haven't given up 20 points or more since October 1st. Derek Carr will present an interesting challenge, as he is plenty capable of shredding the Pats, as some other high-level quarterbacks have already done this year. If Carr can avoid turnovers and stay upright, he will put up points on New England. The much bigger problem for the Raiders is their anemic pass rush, one that has generated 13 sacks on the season, tied for last in the league. Just about everyone knows that the best, and perhaps only way to stop Tom Brady is to put him on the ground. Hope Carr is ready to put up 40.

Pick: Raiders

Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET (NBC)

Philly can put Dallas just about out of their misery with a win here, but they also will need a win to keep pace with their closest competitors for the NFC's top seed, as it is highly unlikely that the Vikings and Rams will play to a tie. Ezekiel Elliott electing to drop his appeal means that Dallas will be without him until the final game of the regular season. It also means that, even at home, they will be hamstrung in this one. Dak Prescott has been very good all season – he will need to be the best player on the field for the Cowboys to come out on top. Philadelphia, with a week of rest, should be ready to meet the challenge. While there is probably plenty of angst in the Eagles' perpetually cynical fan base, this team appears to be a machine that will not easily be stopped. If Tyron Smith can't go, the Cowboys are in deep trouble. Heck, they might still be even if he does play.

Pick: Eagles

Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Seattle doesn't have Richard Sherman. The Falcons finally regained their footing, but likely won't have Devonta Freeman as they try to win two in a row. Both teams have plenty at stake. A win keeps the Falcons in the thick of things in the NFC South. If Seattle holds serve at home, a Rams loss would put them atop the NFC West. There are several big names currently listed as "questionable" for Seattle. If most of them play, it stands to reason that the Seahawks will prevail. If not, the game is a toss-up. The great unknown, however, is whether or not Matt Ryan and Atlanta found something real in their win over Dallas. If they did, and they start hitting their stride, watch out. Sherman's injury, by the way, means that Julio Jones might have a field day. If Washington can waltz into Seattle and win, the defending NFC champs can too, right?

Pick: Falcons