NFL Week 13 Mock Contest

After five winning weeks in a row, we slipped. It happens, and it is super frustrating. I am chalking it up to Thanksgiving screwing folks up. Maybe I overlooked those games on Thursday a little too quickly.

This week we lose just one game with a couple of teams on their bye weeks — Arizona and Carolina. No big losses there.

There are not a ton of big spreads this week. Not a lot of marquee games either. The most interesting game looks like Miami visiting San Francisco. There are a lot of links between these two teams. They are sniping at each other during the week too.  

Week 1 Record: 2-3
Week 2 Record: 3-2
Week 3 Record: 2-3
Week 4 Record: 4-1
Week 5 Record: 3-2
Week 6 Record: 1-4
Week 7 Record: 3-2
Week 8 Record: 3-2
Week 9 Record: 3-1-1
Week 10 Record: 4-1
Week 11 Record: 3-2
Week 12 Record: 2-3

Combined Record: 33-26-1

Week 12 in Review

Baltimore Ravens -4 (loss)

They lost outright at the end. With 2 minutes left it looked like they were going to cover though.  

Washington Commanders -4 (win)

Washington has suddenly become reliable. Yes, I just wrote that.
 
Indianapolis Colts -2.5 (loss)

Clearly, a new coach is not solving all of the problems with the Colts. They wouldn't have covered and they lost late against Pittsburgh.  

Los Angeles Chargers -3 (loss)

I swear this is the last time I back the Chargers, until the next time.
 
Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 (win)

It is too little too late for Vegas, but like the town, it might be a fun ride. 

The Picks (finally)

Minnesota Vikings -3 (vs. New York Jets)

I am still not sure what the ceiling of Minnesota is. I do feel confident they are better than New York and that the Jets are overvalued off their win last week. Mike White does not scare me at all at quarterback. On the road, things may be a little different than they were a week ago. There is now film on the Jets with him at the helm too.
 
Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 (at Atlanta Falcons)

I am liking what I am seeing from rookie QB Kenny Pickett, he just seems to have something for the Steelers. They took a hit at running back with Najee Harris out but there are still enough weapons for him to work with. Plus their defense against Atlanta is going to mean that Pickett is not going to have to post crazy numbers.  

Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 (vs. Tennessee Titans)

I am not liking the dead number here but Philadelphia gets a chance to flex a little against the Titans. Tennessee is a good team, but the Eagles are the more complete group. They can load up on the run and dare the Titans to beat them with the pass. It is a simple formula, while the diversity of the offense with QB Jalen Hurts should post enough points for Philly to win with margin.  

Las Vegas Raiders +1.5 (vs. Los Angeles Chargers)

The home team has won the last three games in this series, including earlier this season. The math says the Raiders are not as out of it as they looked a couple of weeks ago. They have won back-to-back games on the road in overtime. That is definitely a sign of a team that is not giving an inch. Fading the Chargers is an emerging strategy for me too.  
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 (vs. New Orleans Saints)

I am not sure what is going on with Tampa. They are in first place in the NFC South though and at home against a New Orleans team that does not have much going for it this season. The Saints' offense is totally unreliable and unlike the Bucs, they do not have elite personnel. I don't like the hook but am willing to play with it.