NFL Week 14: Picks and preview

STREAMING: PRIME VIDEO            LINE: Las Vegas -6.5

Maybe the Raiders needed the humiliation of losing to Jeff Saturday, or maybe Davante Adams just decided to start taking over football games in spectacular fashion. Either way, the Raiders are back on the periphery of the AFC playoff race, and any team that can score the way they can is inherently dangerous, despite their myriad shortcomings on defense. Can a two-man team (I count Maxx Crosby as the other member) make a serious playoff push? We’ll see. Baker Mayfield might start for the Rams in this one, mere days after the team claimed him off waivers. Is the former number one overall pick a worse option than Bryce Perkins or anyone else Los Angeles could put out there? Probably not. The interesting thing about Los Angeles is that they’re a bad team with no reason to try and tank since the Lions own their first-round pick anyway. So why not have fun seeing what Mayfield can do?

Look smart to your friends:

-Davante Adams has caught fire and has 125+ receiving yards and a touchdown catch in four of his last five games. He’s also tied for the NFL lead with 12 receiving touchdowns this season.

-Bobby Wagner might not be the player he used to be, but he’s still productive and needs just 3 tackles for his 11^th-straight 100+ tackle season.

The pick: Raiders 27 Rams 21

TV: CBS            LINE: Buffalo -9.5

New York’s Mike White is pretty clearly the team’s best choice at quarterback moving forward; he’s unlocked Garrett Wilson and came within a Braxton Berrios drop on the Jets’ penultimate possession of giving New York a late lead against the Vikings. White might take more chances than Zach Wilson, but he’s also throwing a better ball and clearly has the confidence of his teammates. This game will be tough, but the Jets’ schedule is manageable moving forward. Buffalo came into a road date with the Patriots, having played bad football the two prior weeks, despite having won both games. The Bills delivered a command performance against New England, bottling up the running game, tormenting Mac Jones, and never letting the Patriots really get into the game. It was the kind of game that serves as a reminder of what the Bills are capable of when they aren’t getting in their own way.

Look smart to your friends:

-White’s 369-yard performance last week made him just the fifth quarterback in league history with 350+ passing yards in multiple games within his first five career starts.

-Safety Jordan Poyer will probably get prominently involved in this game, very possibly in the pass rush. He has a sack in two of his last three career games against the Jets.

The pick: Bills 26 Jets 14

TV: CBS            LINE: Cincinnati -6

The Browns won Deshaun Watson’s debut, but Watson was a near no-show in the process, playing a mostly putrid game and looking every bit like a player who hadn’t seen a field in 700 days. Cleveland’s running game, defense and special teams carried the day; Donovan Peoples-Jones had just the second punt return touchdown in the league this year, while Denzel Ward and Tony Fields scored touchdowns on a fumble return and interception return, respectively. Cincinnati made a loud statement at home against the Chiefs, besting Kansas City yet again. Joe Burrow is now 3-0 against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in his career, and while Kansas City’s fear factor still exists for lesser teams, the Chiefs seem to bring out the best in the Bengals. I’d happily pay to see this matchup again in the postseason. Burrow would probably be pretty pleased with it, too. In those three games against the Chiefs, he’s got 8 touchdowns and just 1 interception.

Look smart to your friends:

-Unsurprisingly, Nick Chubb, second in the league with 1,119 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns this year, also has 100+ scrimmage yards and a rushing touchdown in all three of his division games thus far.

-Sam Hubbard might make Watson’s second start back miserable; he had a sack and a forced fumble when the teams met in Week 8 and is looking for his third game in a row against the Browns with a sack.

The pick: Bengals 30 Browns 26

TV: FOX            LINE: Dallas -16.5

The Texans stink, they didn’t claim Baker Mayfield on waivers, and they might be headed back to Davis Mills after the Kyle Allen Experience proved less than exciting. I have almost nothing new to say about this team that hasn’t been said already. They’re angling for the top pick in the draft, they’ve got a good rookie running back and a lot of draft capital, and have a chance at a quick turnaround. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are fresh off a rather stunning 54-19 pummeling of the Colts – and it was a Scorigami, no less – and have been talking about possibly signing Odell Beckham Jr. Dallas certainly benefited from the fact that Indianapolis turned into a desiccated husk of a football team after cutting the Cowboys’ lead to 21-19, but make no mistake, this is a team that is absolutely capable of winning the NFC, even if they’re only the second-best team in their own division.

Look smart to your friends:

-Jalen Pitre is quietly putting together a very nice rookie season; he led the team with a career-high 16 tackles and had his third interception last week. The 16 tackles are the most by a rookie in a game this season.

-Ezekiel Elliott got his 8^th rushing touchdown of the season last week, and is the only player in the NFL with 8+ touchdowns in each of the past seven seasons.

The pick: Cowboys 30 Texans 17

TV: FOX            LINE: Detroit -2.5

“Huh,” you say. “That’s a pretty strange line for this game. Minnesota is 10-2. How are they favored?” Ask yourself this: Are the puny Vikings really prepared to withstand the awesome power of the OTOTWPC? (See the intro if you’re suddenly very confused.) The answer is very possibly not. The Vikings barely beat Detroit in Week 3, needing that rarest of phenomena, late Kirk Cousins heroics, to get the job done. With the Lions on a 4-1, offense-fueled tear and Minnesota’s defense hemorrhaging yards and points, maybe that line makes sense after all. Detroit’s defense still stinks, but who cares? The Lions are a play here and a play there away from being on a five-game winning streak, and if they had beaten the Bills, no one would be laughing about their playoff chances or taking them lightly. Dan Campbell’s team is two games out of a playoff spot at the moment, but they have the remaining schedule to make the Seahawks (and Giants) nervous.

Look smart to your friends:

-Cousins has mostly owned the Lions, at least in recent years. He’s going for his fourth game in a row at Detroit with 325+ passing yards and his sixth game in a row at Detroit with a 100+ passer rating.

-Jamaal Williams is going for his fifth-straight game with a rushing touchdown, and has an NFL-high and career-best 14 rushing touchdowns this season.

The pick: Lions 33 Vikings 28

TV: CBS            LINE: Tennessee -4

Fun one here, as two teams coming off embarrassing road losses, get to do battle. Trevor Lawrence looked for sure like he was going to suffer a severe leg injury against the Lions, but somehow avoided a catastrophe and returned to the game. Still, Jacksonville was mostly a no-show against the league’s worst defense, and now the season has formally slid into “pathetic disappointment” territory, though I suppose they could make things interesting by winning out—haha, I’m sorry, couldn’t even finish the sentence. The Titans have now lost two in a row after winning seven of eight games after losing two in a row to start the season. They should be able to get to at least ten wins, given that they have the Texans one more time, as well as this and another game with Jacksonville. Still, Tennessee hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record this season except for Washington way back in Week 5. Just sayin’.

Look smart to your friends:

-Christian Kirk has been productive in his last two road games; he’s looking for his third-straight road contest with 100+ receiving yards and has 60+ receiving yards in 5 of 6 games this season.

-Jeffery Simmons is one of the league’s most underrated defensive players; he’s looking for his third game in a row against a division opponent with 2+ tackles for loss and a sack.

The pick: Titans 23 Jaguars 20

TV: FOX            LINE: Philadelphia -7

Philadelphia keeps handing out stompings to any team that comes calling, and the A.J. Brown Revenge Game against the Titans was the latest example. Philly beat Tennessee so completely that Titans general manager Jon Robinson got fired mid-week, though presumably, that was just a coincidence. Anyway, if you want to hear about the rich getting richer, a likely run on quarterbacks at the top of next year’s draft, combined with Philly owning New Orleans’ first-round pick, means that Jalen Carter, who might be the best prospect in the entire draft, could head to the Eagles. Are the Giants actually a good team? They’re resilient. They have some players who are easy to like and whose value is obvious, but this team is 22^nd in total offense, 23^rd in total defense, can’t defend the run, and can’t pass the ball. Am I missing anything here? The rest of the schedule features three more division games. New York has yet to win one this year.

Look smart to your friends:

-Miles Sanders is the only NFC running back with 900+ rushing yards and 9+ rushing touchdowns in 2022.

-Safety Julian Love will have to be good against Philly’s running attack. He’s looking for his third game in a row with 11+ tackles and his fourth game in a row with a tackle for loss.

The pick: Eagles 26 Giants 20

TV: CBS            LINE: Pittsburgh -2.5

Baltimore will almost certainly be without Lamar Jackson in this game, and while the Ravens are still tied for first place in the AFC North, they certainly don’t have a great vibe about them, with a pair of relatively ugly wins sandwiched around an even uglier loss to Jacksonville. Tyler Huntley is a competent backup, but Baltimore is struggling to find consistency both passing the ball and defending the pass. The division is still within reach, but Huntley has to hold down the fort. Kenny Pickett’s progress continues for the Steelers; the team isn’t cashing in with enough touchdowns, but Pickett hasn’t thrown an interception in four games after throwing eight in his first four appearances. Pittsburgh’s offensive line is also starting to come together, particularly when it comes to run blocking. The Steelers have rushed for 100+ yards as a team in five straight games. They haven’t done that in six straight since way back in 2015.

Look smart to your friends:

-Linebacker Roquan Smith was busy in his only previous matchup against Pittsburgh, totaling 12 tackles, 2 tackles for a loss and a sack last season.

-Najee Harris is starting to come around, and he’s got a touchdown in all three games versus divisional opponents this season.

The pick: Steelers 19 Ravens 12

TV: CBS            LINE: Kansas City -9

I’m not sure that the Chiefs have run into their kryptonite in the form of the Bengals, but it’s pretty clear that Cincinnati is one team that won’t beat themselves when they have a chance to put a kill shot on Kansas City. That said, if anyone is overreacting to the loss and suggesting that the Chiefs have some sort of fatal flaw, that’s their problem. This is still a frightening offensive team, one that will probably be playing late into January. Oh, the Broncos held another team to a ridiculously low point total, only to lose again. Gee, haven’t seen that movie at all this year. Denver got beat by a late Tyler Huntley touchdown drive, then looked poised to actually get the ball down the field for a winning field goal, but ran out of time before getting into realistic range. Of course, none of this matters in the long run. The Broncos are coming apart at the seams with each passing week, and about the only interesting thing about them is trying to predict what lowlight is coming next.

Look smart to your friends:

-Travis Kelce is at the doorstep of some tight end history; he needs just 32 yards this week to become the first tight end ever with 1,000+ receiving yards in seven seasons.

-Denver’s defense is legitimately awesome, so let’s highlight the fact that safety Justin Simmons is the only player in the NFL with 3+ interceptions in each of the last five seasons.

The pick: Chiefs 24 Broncos 5

TV: FOX            LINE: San Francisco -3.5

Tom Brady turned back the clock, and not a moment too soon, ripping off two touchdown drives in the waning minutes and seconds of Tampa Bay’s Monday night thriller over the Saints. The win gave the Bucs sole control of first place in the Wretched NFC South™, while also stoking conversations about whether or not Brady might be building back up to boogeyman status. If he cooks the Niners' defense, then I’d say it’s time to pay attention. San Francisco will go with Brock Purdy. Baker Mayfield got claimed by the Rams, and it never seemed like the Niners were all that interested in him, anyway. It’s more likely that Kyle Shanahan trusts his system so much that he figures Brock Purdy’s knowledge of it gives him a leg up on anyone else who would come in and try to play. Make no mistake, though; while Purdy looked good in relief last week, this team will go as far as their defense takes them and no more.

Look smart to your friends:

-In the “stats that probably won’t surprise you” department, Brady is 6-0 against quarterbacks making their first career start. Good luck, Brock!

-With one more sack, Nick Bosa will become just the fifth player since 1982 with 15+ sacks in two of his first four seasons.

The pick: 49ers 21 Buccaneers 20

TV: FOX            LINE: Seattle -4.5

A rested Panthers team gets to travel across the country and see if they can make it two in a row after beating up on Russell Wilson and Denver in Week 12. Sam Darnold throwing for 164 yards, passing for a touchdown and running for a touchdown in that game qualifies as a great game for the former third-overall pick, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves where he’s concerned. This still isn’t much of a team, but to interim coach Steve Wilks’ credit, they play very hard. Seattle owes Geno Smith big time, and if the Seahawks end up winning the NFC West, Smith will deservedly get serious MVP consideration. He threw for 367 yards, a career-high, and three touchdowns last week and hit the game-winning touchdown pass to D.K. Metcalf with barely 30 seconds to play. If people are still surprised by this, they probably shouldn’t be anymore.

Look smart to your friends:

-D.J. Moore might have himself a big game in this one; he’s looking for his third-straight game against the Seahawks with 8+ catches and 90+ receiving yards.

-Smith leads the NFL this year in games with a 70+ completion percentage (8), games with a 100+ passer rating (9) and games with 2+ touchdown passes (10).

The pick: Seahawks 30 Panthers 20

TV: NBC            LINE: Miami -3.5

The Dolphins got bullied a little bit – okay, a lot – by San Francisco last week, but considering the fact that the Niners are one of the best defenses in the league, that’s not a horrible embarrassment. What Miami does need to do is find a way to get Jeff Wilson Jr. more involved in what they’re doing offensively; he was largely invisible against his former team, and has way too much playmaking ability to go silent for a whole game. The Chargers…I don’t know, what do you want me to say? Yes, they were on the road against Las Vegas, but Davante Adams totally taking over the football game is unacceptable. How many times can we say of the Chargers, “Wow, this team has a ton of talent. Maybe this is the year they’ll stop underachieving and having head-scratching losses?” Los Angeles absolutely has the ability to punch-for-punch with Miami and come out on top, so why am I assuming that that’s the least likely outcome for this game?

Look smart to your friends:

-Tyreek Hill’s numbers on the road this year really are absurd; he averages 145.7 receiving yards per game away from Miami, and has 140+ receiving yards in 5 of 6 road contests.

-Derwin James will be key to Los Angeles’ efforts to slow down Tua Tagovailoa; James has a sack in two of his last three home games, and is the only defensive back with 6+ tackles in 12 games this year.

The pick: Dolphins 28 Chargers 27

TV: ESPN            LINE: New England -2.5

Bill Belichick all but admitted that his decision to make Matt Patricia offensive coordinator has been a flop when he explained how difficult it is to change things that high up on the coaching staff this late in the season. The Patriots’ offense is cratering, and Patricia does not seem like a guy with answers to their problems. The book is out on New England, and the main problem seems to be that the (play)book is too short, and all the pages have the same words. Speaking of offenses I hate, we have the Cardinals. I think it’s pretty clear where I stand on these guys; they’re mostly atrocious, Kliff Kingsbury should not have a job after this season, and Kyler Murray doesn’t have me sold that he’s an elite or even upper-echelon quarterback. Other than that, everything is just hunky-dory in the desert. This has the potential to be an absolutely dreadful game.

Look smart to your friends:

-How bad is New England at scoring? Their best offensive weapon against the Bills was cornerback Marcus Jones, who had a 48-yard touchdown catch, and has touchdowns in two of his last three games.

-Arizona’s offense is a disjointed mess, but if you have James Conner in fantasy football, you’re at least getting production. He’s aiming for his third-straight Monday night game with a touchdown and fourth straight overall.

The pick: Patriots 6 Cardinals 5