NFL Week 15 'Beat the Line' moves

It was a modest week for us on "Beat the Line" moves, as we went 1-1-1 in creating closing line value and 1-2 against the spread. We're still above .500 ATS and creating CLV at a 60 percent clip on the season, so let's keep it rolling with our three early bets for NFL Week 15. 

2023 record: 25-10-7 CLV, 22-19-1 ATS

Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets

The Jets looked much better in Week 14 with Zach Wilson under center, but they also played against a Houston Texans offense without Tank Dell, Nico Collins and C.J. Stroud for a large portion of the game. This week won't look remotely the same.

The Dolphins torched the Jets for 395 yards of offense and 27 offensive points in their first matchup, and that game was on the road. Miami is 4-1 against the spread at home with an average winning margin of 21.4 points per game, which is the second-best mark in the NFL. 

This defense has looked dominant with Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard manning the secondary, and De'Von Achane will be closer to full health in Week 15. This spread should close closer to two touchdowns.

The bet to make: Dolphins -12 (-110 DraftKings)

Buffalo Bills vs. Dallas Cowboys

No one wants to fade the red-hot Cowboys right now, but we'll gladly step in front of the runaway train in a textbook sell-high spot. 

Dallas is 6-1 ATS at home with an NFL-best average margin of victory of 24.4 points per game. On the road, though, the Cowboys are just 3-3 ATS with an average margin of victory of 2.8 points per game. As for the Bills, they're still undervalued in the betting market because of their 7-6 record. Buffalo and Dallas are neck-and-neck in DVOA, so the Bills should be closer to three-point favorites when factoring in home-field advantage. 

Let's grab the Bills moneyline while it's still cheap.

The bet to make: Bills moneyline (-122 FanDuel)

Seattle Seahawks vs. Philadelphia Eagles

This is a matchup between two struggling defenses and two explosive offenses. The Eagles and Seahawks rank 20th and 27th, respectively, in defensive DVOA, and they've both given up at least 394 yards and 28 points in two straight games. 

This game isn't until Monday night, so Geno Smith will have an extra day to recover from the groin injury that kept him out of the lineup in Week 14. If he's ruled in later in the week, this total will surely hit 50.

The bet to make: Over 48 (-110 FD)