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New England Patriots quarterback Bailey Zappe (4). Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Week 15: New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs betting picks, preview

By Jack Dougherty | Last updated 12/14/23

The New England Patriots will play host to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 15, and we've got you covered with our favorite picks for the AFC clash. Let's break down the matchup and find some winning bets along the way.

New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs betting odds, preview

Spread: Chiefs -7.5, Over/under: 37, Moneylines: Chiefs -380 | Patriots +300

This is normally one of the most highly anticipated matchups of the NFL season, but that's not the case this year. The Patriots have limped to a 3-10 record due to poor coaching, terrible quarterback play, impact injuries and more. New England is one of just two teams in the NFL that have already been eliminated from the playoffs.

The Chiefs aren't doing too hot themselves, at least by their standards. Kansas City has lost three of its last four games to fall out of the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and the biggest issue has been a lack of dependable weapons in the passing game. Even with Patrick Mahomes under center, the Chiefs rank only 17th in the league in yards per completion and 11th in points per game.

It won't be easy for KC to get back on track against a Patriots defense that ranks fourth in the NFL in yards allowed per play. The defense hasn't been the problem for New England, but it does have the worst scoring offense in the league this season.

Patriots vs. Chiefs betting picks

Under 37 (-110 FanDuel)

It feels wrong to have a total this low in a game that features Mahomes, but this isn't a typical Mahomes offense. The Chiefs have scored more than 21 points only once over their last six games. This New England defense is the best unit Kansas City will face in that stretch, too.

As for the Pats, they're averaging just 13.0 points per game this season. Kansas City's defense ranks third in the NFL in points allowed per play, so it's hard to imagine Bailey Zappe putting up more than 14 points with a weak stable of weapons around him.

Bailey Zappe under 0.5 passing touchdowns (+135 DraftKings)

Zappe played well in New England's 21-18 win against the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, but that performance came against a beat-up secondary on a short week. He didn't throw a single touchdown in his five previous appearances and 64 pass attempts on the season.

This is the best passing defense Zappe has faced all season, so he's not going to be able to replicate his performance from last week.

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