NFL Week 15: Picks and preview

TV: NFL NETWORK        Line: Kansas City -3.5

If the Chiefs could play the Raiders every week, they’d be the greatest team in NFL history. They’re 2-0 with a plus-66 point differential against Las Vegas, and 7-4, plus-17 against everyone else. Kansas City hasn’t looked bad in over a month, having won six straight games while regaining their status as the Super Bowl betting favorite. The Chargers? They could really use a signature home win in front of a crowd that is often partial to the visitors. On one hand, Los Angeles is just 4-4 after a 4-1 start. On the other hand, Justin Herbert can do this.

Look smart to your friends:

-Herbert’s obscene bomb to Jalen Guyton was his 10^th career completion that traveled at least 55 yards in the air. That’s the most in the NFL since Herbert entered the league.

-Kansas City has held five straight opponents to 14 points or less, the second-longest streak in team history, after a six-game run that spanned the 1997 and 1998 seasons.

The pick: Chiefs 34 Chargers 33

TV: NFL NETWORK        Line: Las Vegas -1.5

Something tells me that the Raiders won’t be stomping on the Browns’ logo before this game. Derek Carr’s bunch has to stop the bleeding – a 1-5 stretch after a 5-2 start – and finding a way to make their offense less one-dimensional would be a big help. Cleveland is a COVID-ravaged mess of a team, with Baker Mayfield, Jarvis Landry, Kevin Stefanski, Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper, Wyatt Teller, Jedrick Wills Jr., John Johnson, and Troy Hill among the names who might miss this game unless they can test out of the protocol. What's even worse for the Browns is that Maurkice Pouncey and Ben Roethlisberger aren't walking through that door to save the day with a bad snap and some interceptions.

Look smart to your friends: 

-Carr gets worse as the season goes on. His career 86.7 passer rating in December is the lowest of any month, not counting an 84.5 mark in two January starts.

- Cleveland’s offense has scored more than 17 points in a game just once since Week 6. Somehow, the Browns have managed to go 4-4 in that stretch.

The pick: Browns 23 Raiders 20

TV: NFL NETWORK        Line: Indianapolis -2.5

Admit it, you’re still laughing at the thought of the Patriots beating Buffalo despite attempting just three passes in Week 13. Here’s something to consider, though: Bill Belichick’s game plan, no matter how surreal it was, laid bare Mac Jones’ limitations, most of them arm-strength related. It’s not 2001 anymore; Jones and the Pats can’t completely ride the Brady Plan to a Super Bowl. The Colts haven’t won seven in a row like New England, but they are 6-2 after a 1-4 start. Crucially, they possess the kind of offensive line that can push around the Pats, and perhaps even force New England to play from behind. The Pats haven’t trailed in a game in a month.

Look smart to your friends:

-Matthew Judon’s 12.5 sacks are tied with Mike Vrabel (2007) and Chandler Jones (2015) for the most in any season by a Patriots player during Belichick’s tenure.

-Jonathan Taylor has a rushing touchdown in 10 straight games. If he can get that number to 13, he’ll break the all-time record for consecutive games with a rushing touchdown within a season in league history, currently shared by John Riggins and LaDainian Tomlinson at 12.

The pick: Colts 27 Patriots 21

TV: CBS        Line: Tennessee -1

Nothing like a visit from the Jags to cure what ails a team, right folks? Tennessee had lost two straight and looked like a team adrift, but a tidy 20-0 shutout of the Jaguars got them back on track. That win won’t matter much unless Ryan Tannehill, who hasn’t had a multi-touchdown game since Halloween, heats up. How to put this kindly about the Steelers? They aren’t good. Sure, the record says they’re average, but Mike Tomlin’s team has surrendered 1,071 yards rushing over its last six games. For comparison, the 2010 Steelers, Tomlin’s last team to reach a Super Bowl, allowed 1,004 yards rushing for a whole season.

Look smart to your friends:

-Okay, this won’t make you look THAT smart, but the Titans can clinch AFC South with a win in this game, and a Colts loss to the Patriots.

-In Mike Tomlin’s first 234 games as Steelers head coach, no running back had rushed for 100+ yards in the first half. It has now happened twice – courtesy of Joe Mixon and Dalvin Cook – in the last three weeks.

Look *really* smart to your friends:

-You know who did rush for 100 yards in the first half against a Tomlin-coached team, prior to Mixon and Cook? Oakland Raiders quarterback Terrelle Pryor, in 2013.

The pick: Steelers 24 Titans 23

TV: FOX        Line: Buffalo -11

Things aren’t great for the Panthers right now; Cam Newton’s benching hasn’t affected his status as the starter – yet. Matt Rhule isn’t drawing ridicule the way Urban Meyer is, but owner David Tepper doesn’t seem like the patient type, so Rhule had better find himself a quarterback and start stacking wins. A strong finish this year could actually hurt that goal. Buffalo was gallant in their comeback against the Buccaneers, but the Bills still lost, which makes it four in six games, something that qualifies as a legitimate tailspin. The question for the Bills is whether or not their second-half performance in Tampa Bay is a sign of things to come.

Look smart to your friends:

-Sure, Newton got benched, but with his rushing touchdown last week, he became the first quarterback in league history with a rushing touchdown in each of his first four games of a season.

-Despite the loss to the Bucs, Allen joined a very exclusive club, becoming the third quarterback all-time with 300 yards passing and 100 yards rushing in a game. Only Newton and Russell Wilson had done so prior to Allen.

The pick: Bills 27 Panthers 17

TV: FOX        Line: Arizona -12.5

The Cardinals were outperforming some of their predictive metrics, which is the kind of thing that tends to rear its ugly head against a team like the Rams, not so much the Lions. That said, it’s not like Arizona was completely outclassed by Los Angeles, so there shouldn’t be cause for panic in the desert. It was reassuring to see the Lions revert right back to their old selves against Denver last week. Detroit winning two games in a row would have been a bridge too far, and because of their tie, another victory would have taken them out of the top spot in this year’s draft. On the plus side, the Lions seem like they can actually run the ball.

Look smart to your friends: 

-James Conner’s seven-game touchdown streak has him tied for the longest in franchise history, with John David Crow and Mal Kutner, two men who played roughly 60-70 years ago.

-The Lions, regardless of how this season turns out, have more seasons with two or fewer wins this century (three and perhaps counting) than they do seasons with 10 or more wins (two).

The pick: Cardinals 30 Lions 20

TV: CBS        Line: Miami -10

Zach Wilson continues to benefit from the fact that Urban Meyer and the Jaguars are a complete disgrace, and Trevor Lawrence is a victim of circumstance. Otherwise, chances are that more people would be focused on the fact that Wilson has never really looked good at any time this year. Miami has somehow won five in a row, several weeks after I wrote them off for dead, and if the Dolphins had any semblance of a running game, they’d be truly dangerous. Unfortunately for Miami, Phillip Lindsay, Salvon Ahmed and Myles Gaskin are all on the COVID list, and will likely miss this game. Fortunately for Miami, they’re playing the Jets.

Look smart to your friends:

-Wilson completed a season-low 45 percent of his passes against the Saints. It was the second-lowest single-game completion percentage in the NFL this season for a passer with at least 40 attempts.

-Miami’s five-game winning streak makes them just the second team in NFL history to win five in a row after losing seven in a row, joining the 1994 New York Giants in what I suppose we’ll call illustrious company.

The pick: Dolphins 17 Jets 9

TV: FOX        Line: Dallas -11

Congratulations to the Cowboys for finally separating themselves from the morass that was the NFC East. Dallas now has a three-game lead in the division and can clinch the division with a win and a tie in the Football Team-Eagles game. That part won’t happen, but the division will officially belong to the Cowboys soon enough. The Giants are a rudderless bunch at this point, and Danial Jones was limited on New York’s Wednesday practice estimate. Whatever the intended plan was for this team, it isn’t working, and the slight uptick in offensive performance from last year to this year has been more than offset by a precipitous dive from the defense.

Look smart to your friends:

-Micah Parsons has a sack in six straight games, and is just the third rookie in league history to have a sack in at least six games in a row (since they became an official stat in 1982), joining Jevon Kearse, who you know, and Mike Croel, who you don’t.

­-One more loss will give New York its fifth-straight season with double-digit defeats, building on an ignominious record; Big Blue had never suffered through four such seasons in a row until last year’s 6-10 campaign.

The pick: Cowboys 30 Giants 21

TV: FOX        Line: Philadelphia -7

Washington looks like the second-best team in the NFC East, which might still be worth something in the stranger-than-fiction NFC, but the Football Team’s season might be lost to COVID, as nine players were put on the COVID list on Wednesday. The Eagles haven’t announced a starting quarterback for this game as of yet, and Gardner Minshew and Jalen Hurts split reps at Wednesday’s practice. Hurts, who is dealing with a sprained ankle, is more versatile and can stress a defense in multiple ways, but it just feels like rolling with Minshew Mania might be the best short-term plan for Philly.

Look smart to your friends:

-Washington’s J.D. McKissic, currently trying to come back from a concussion, is the best pass-catching running back you never think about. Since the start of the 2020 season, he leads all backs with 123 receptions.

­-One defensive player in the NFL has three touchdowns this year. Trevon Diggs? Nope. Micah Parsons? Try again. It’s Eagles corner Darius Slay, who has a pick-six and two scoop-and-score touchdowns this season.

The pick: Eagles 24 Washington Football Team 19

TV: CBS        Line: Jacksonville -4

Say this much for Davis Mills; the guy is certainly not afraid to sling the ball around the yard. He threw it 49 times against the Seahawks, completing 33 for 331 yards and a touchdown. It’s impossible to tell if he’s actually good, of course, but Houston has a few more games to get more data points in the evaluation process. Why did Urban Meyer get fired in Jacksonville? He did things like this. Also this. Can’t forget this, either. I’d like to think he’ll never work in coaching or media again, but I know better.

Look smart to your friends:

-Mills, despite the wreckage around him, is second among rookies in completion percentage and passer rating (65.8 and 81.1, respectively) this season.

­-James Robinson, who inexplicably found his way into Meyer’s doghouse, had the highest Pro Football Focus grade of any running back from Weeks 1-10 (90.5).

The pick: Jaguars 28 Texans 17

TV: CBS        Line: Denver -2.5

Cincinnati once again failed to get out of its own way, with two special teams fumbles helping to doom the Bengals in an otherwise winnable game against San Francisco. Zac Taylor’s team sure looks like the best combination of good health and talent in the AFC North, but that won’t mean much as long as they continue to do Bengals-like things. I don’t want to take the Broncos seriously as a contender, but their defense is staunch, and Denver scored impressive wins over Dallas, Los Angeles, and Washington, all three of whom might end up in the playoffs. If the Broncos are going to get to the postseason, winning this game is a must because dates with the Chargers and Chiefs finish off the schedule.

Look smart to your friends:

-Trey Hendrickson had another sack last Sunday, running his streak of consecutive games with a sack to nine. Only Kansas City’s Chris Jones has a longer run, as he notched a sack in 11 straight games in 2018.

­-Melvin Gordon might not be viewed as an elite back, but he is one of just six players in league history with at least seven rushing touchdowns in six consecutive seasons, joining Jim Brown, LaDainian Tomlinson, Emmitt Smith, Adrian Peterson, and Shaun Alexander.

The pick: Bengals 27 Broncos 20

TV: CBS        Line: San Francisco -9.5

Atlanta is 6-7 despite having the league’s 26^th-ranked scoring offense and 28^th -ranked scoring defense. It’s hard to identify anything the Falcons do well other than defend the run, and even that’s something of a stretch. Arthur Smith’s team needs to win three of its last four and have the Eagles and Football Team cannibalize themselves to have a shot at the postseason. Not only is San Francisco currently in possession of a playoff spot, but the 49ers are also starting to look like one of those classic “teams you don’t want to see in the playoffs.” They got a resilient win against a tough Bengals team, and if Jimmy Garoppolo gets to another level, they’ll be very tough to beat.

Look smart to your friends:

-Getting away from Atlanta might not be the worst thing for the Falcons. They are 5-2 on the road this year and have not actually won a game in their own stadium this season (they were the designated home team in their London win over the Jets).

­-George Kittle had 13 catches for 151 yards and a touchdown against Cincinnati, making him the first tight end in league history with at least 150 yards and a touchdown catch in consecutive games.

The pick: 49ers 30 Falcons 23

TV: FOX        Line: Los Angeles -4.5

The Seahawks are like a lumbering, un-killable zombie from a horror movie, staggering towards the periphery of the NFC playoff picture. An upset win over the Rams would still leave them with a long road, but with home dates against the Bears and Lions to follow, can’t you just see them somehow in a “win and you’re in” situation in Week 18 against Arizona? Just me? Okay. Los Angeles seems to have regained its equilibrium after a rough stretch and more importantly managed to beat a good team, and in their building, no less. Unsurprisingly, Matthew Stafford played well. When he does, the Rams are virtually unbeatable. And if Odell Beckham is getting comfortable, watch out.

Look smart to your friends:

-Bobby Wagner is ageless and a future Hall-of-Famer. The Seahawks linebacker leads the NFL with 152 tackles, his 10 ^th-straight season with 100 or more.

­-Aaron Donald destroyed the Cardinals in comical fashion last week, notching three sacks. He’s the only player in the league with 10+ sacks in each of the last five seasons.

The pick: Rams 28 Seahawks 26

TV: FOX        Line: Green Bay -5

Presumably, Aaron Rodgers won’t be busy with any board meetings during this game, as he reasserted his ownership of the Bears last week, despite battling an injured toe. The Packers look like they’ve separated themselves, at least for now, from all NFC teams not named the Buccaneers. After going seven games without scoring 30 points, Green Bay has topped that mark in each of its last three. The Ravens are beat up, and that’s putting it both mildly and kindly. There are no guarantees that Lamar Jackson plays, despite John Harbaugh’s early-week optimism, and even if he does, nothing the Ravens have shown lately suggests they can hang with the Packers. Make no mistake; Baltimore is in trouble.

Look smart to your friends:

-All Aaron Jones does is produce. He is one of just three running backs, along with Melvin Gordon and Derrick Henry, with 9+ touchdowns in each of the past four seasons, and is just 73 scrimmage yards away from topping 1,000 for the third-straight year.

­-Lamar Jackson is 12-0 in his first 12 games against NFC opponents. Another victory and he’ll join Bobby Hebert as the only quarterbacks in history to win their first 13 starts against one conference.

The pick: Packers 31 Ravens 28

TV: NBC        Line: Tampa Bay -11

New Orleans’ season is in danger of slipping away; last week’s win over the Jets stopped a five-game losing streak. While the Saints are 3-0 against Tom Brady’s Buccaneers in the regular season, they’re reeling right now and will have to rely on a multi-faceted running attack to try and stay close. Tampa Bay, simply put, looks like the NFC’s best team, and perhaps the NFL’s. Their defense isn’t what it was last year, and they let the Bills come all the way back last week, but Brady looks like he’s in full command, and that makes the Bucs a nightmarish proposition for almost every opponent.

Look smart to your friends:

-Alvin Kamara’s four receptions last week gave him 362 for his career, breaking Roger Craig’s record for most catches by a running back in his first five seasons. Craig had 358 with San Francisco.

­-Mike Evans is just 115 yards away from getting to 1,000 on the season and adding to a record he has all to himself. Evans is already the only player in league history with at least 1,000 yards receiving in each of his first seven seasons, and this would make it eight.

The pick: Buccaneers 34 Saints 27

TV: ESPN        Line: Minnesota -3.5

The Vikings humiliated the Steelers, and in terms of public perception, exposed Pittsburgh as a likely playoff pretender. Minnesota will likely find themselves watching those very same playoffs at home unless they can get two wins over the Bears, and steal one of two games against the Rams and Packers. One big impediment? Kirk Cousins, who almost singlehandedly let the Steelers back in the game last week. The Bears gave it the ol’ college try against the Packers in the first half, then looked more like a college team in the second half. Chicago is a work in progress, of course, and the one good thing is that Justin Fields seems to be settling in as the starter, despite battling through painful rib injuries.

Look smart to your friends:

-Justin Jefferson needs just 67 yards to surpass Odell Beckham Jr. for the most receiving yards in a player’s first two seasons in league history. Jefferson also has a good chance to crack 3,000 yards in his first two years.

­-Robert Quinn is having a renaissance year, as his 14 sacks are tied for third in the league, nearly a decade after he notched his career-high of 19 while playing for the St. Louis Rams in 2013.

The pick: Bears 27 Vikings 23