NFL Week 16 'Beat the Line' moves

It's been a solid week in Beat the Line so far, as we cashed tickets on the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills on Sunday to improve to five games over .500 on the year. We just need the Seattle Seahawks-Philadelphia Eagles game on Monday night to go over the total for a 3-0 sweep in Week 15. (Editor's note: It didn't. Seattle won, 20-17.) 

Before that, let's look ahead to Week 16 and target three early bets we believe can give us closing line value by kickoff. 

2023 record: 26-11-7 CLV, 24-19-1 ATS 

Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans 

The Browns are a completely different team when they play outside of Cleveland. In eight home games this season, the Browns are 6-2 to the under. In road games, though, Cleveland is 6-0 to the over. The Browns are the only undefeated over team on the road through 15 weeks, and they're going over by an NFL-best 15.8 points per game. 

C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins could return to play in Week 16, as well, so there's a path for both offenses to have success in perfect, indoor conditions.  

The bet to make: Over 42 (-110 DraftKings)

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers

This is the perfect time to back Mike Tomlin and the Steelers. Tomlin has always been a profitable head coach as an underdog, and especially a home underdog in a division game. Add in the fact that the Bengals are coming off an emotional win against the Minnesota Vikings in which they gave up 6.3 yards per play to a Nick Mullins-led offense. 

Pittsburgh will be ditching Mitchell Trubisky in favor of Mason Rudolph, who can't be worse than what we've seen over the last few weeks. This is back-against-the-wall time for the Steelers, and there's no coach we trust more in that scenario than Tomlin.  

The bet to make: Steelers +2.5 (-105 FanDuel)

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This bet is all about getting in front of an injury. Trevor Lawrence was placed in concussion protocol after taking a hit to the head in the fourth quarter of Jacksonville's Week 15 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. The NFL is cracking down on head injuries this season, so it's been hard for players to clear protocol and play the following week. 

This line is already on the move, but it'll go haywire if Lawrence isn't able to practice all week. There's a chance this spread could close at Bucs -3 or higher, so we're attempting to get ahead of the price change.  
The bet to make: Buccaneers moneyline (-108 FD)