NFL Week 17 Mock Contest

Last week hurt. It did not wipe out what has been a pretty good season overall but it matched our worst weekly record of the season. 

There are now just a couple of weeks left in the season, but with so much playoff positioning still up on the air, there are a lot of games that teams "need" to win to punch their tickets. Motivation is always tough to measure though and it burned me a couple of times last week. 

There is only one massive favorite this week though. That would be Kansas City, at close to a couple of TDs at home against Denver. The majority of the games are expected to be within one score. 

At this stage of the season that might mean easy or hard pickin'. 

Week 1 Record: 2-3
Week 2 Record: 3-2
Week 3 Record: 2-3
Week 4 Record: 4-1
Week 5 Record: 3-2
Week 6 Record: 1-4
Week 7 Record: 3-2
Week 8 Record: 3-2
Week 9 Record: 3-1-1
Week 10 Record: 4-1
Week 11 Record: 3-2
Week 12 Record: 2-3
Week 13 Record: 4-1
Week 14 Record: 2-3
Week 15 Record: 2-2-1
Week 16 Record: 1-4

Combined Record: 42-37-2

Week 16 in Review

Tennessee Titans -3.5 (loss)

The dead number meant nothing as the Titans lost outright at home to Houston. Even with the rookie QB playing, I thought they would have enough against the Texans.  

Las Vegas Raiders +2.5 (loss)

The Raiders played a tight game against the Steelers, losing by 3. Their season fell with the result too.
 
Detroit Lions -2.5 (loss)

The Lions were on the road but this one is going to sting. Detroit's defense could not stop the run and the offense took too long to cover for them.  

Cleveland Browns -2.5 (loss)

Another team that needed a win desperately and fell super flat at home. Cleveland is dead to me now. (too harsh?)
 
Cincinnati Bengals -3 (win)

The lone win started a little slow but Cincinnati found its gear, even if it was a little tighter than I would have liked late. 

The Picks (finally)

Miami Dolphins +2.5 (at New England Patriots)

The big story is that Tua is out with a concussion this week. Last week was going to hurt either way, but with backup QB Teddy Bridgewater they have a decent fallback. I am looking for him to be able to make a couple of big plays that turn the tide in a game the Dolphins really need to win after last week's letdown against Green Bay. I have no faith in New England right now. They are definitely a fade.  

Detroit Lions -5.5 (vs. Chicago Bears)

The Lions have been up and down lately. Just when you think they are getting reliable they throw up a dud like last week. Taking on the Bears, and playing at home, are why I am comfortable plowing through this dead number though. There are no guarantees in the NFL but as long as the Lions hold the Bears under 20 points this one shouldn't be close.  

Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5 at Houston Texans) 

Jacksonville is on a mission now. They just have to keep winning and they will take the division. Houston knocked them off course earlier in the season and the Texans are off a surprising road win, but how can you trust Davis Mills to outplay Trevor Lawrence? You can't and that is the difference. Houston is scrappy but it won't be enough.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 (vs. Carolina Panthers)

Tampa Bay is probably going to sneak into the playoffs because the NFC South is so weak this season. They are at the top of the division right now and have a chance to deliver a knockout blow to Carolina this week. With the Panthers overvalued off their recent win we only need Tampa to win by a small margin which is good because they are not what they have been the last couple of seasons. Brady vs Darnold though.  

Washington Commanders -1.5 (vs Cleveland Browns) 

The Commanders have not won since Week 12 but they are still hanging in there in the NFC playoff race. They just got dominated by San Francisco but that is happening to a lot of teams this season. As long as the defense stays strong against the run they can make enough plays to get the win. This will not be pretty football but that is the way that Washington wants it.