NFL Week 1: Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers betting picks, preview

Miami and Los Angeles are a couple of teams everyone is hot about coming into the season, and they will be forever linked by the fact that the Dolphins could have selected QB Justin Herbert over Tua Tagovailoa a few drafts back. Both are looking for a fast starts to dispel the naysayers, especially L.A., whose playoff loss was a doozy. 

Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers Betting Trends and Odds  

Sunday, September 10, 2023 — 4:25 p.m. ET

Odds: Los Angeles -3, Over/under 51.5, Los Angeles -160 | Miami +135

A home team favored by three points is a hard number to move from for the books, especially when these are a couple of quality teams and the likelihood is if the number moves in one way it will get steamed back to the other side. You might get the timing right but with small spreads, I always like to just pick the team I like to win. This is not a divisional game and I think there is more blowout potential. 

Picks for Miami vs. Los Angeles

Over 51.5; Tyreek Hill Over 100 Yards Receiving (+130)

This game really could go either way, but I doubt that it is going to be a low-scoring affair. It is probably going to be hot and that generally wears down the defenses more than the offenses so look for a chunk of points in the second half too. Both teams are loaded with playmakers, but instead of a 27-24 final I think we see both teams push into the 30s. I am not sure what the outcome will mean for these teams, but this is probably the most exciting game of Week 1. Two sharp quarterbacks and offenses matching each other all game long. I am excited to see what Justin Herbert and the Chargers look like with Kellen Moore calling plays this season, and better health and weapons in their receiving corps. They could be the highest-scoring team in the league. 

As for Hill, he led the league in receiving last season. If you look more closely his biggest games were on the road, with his biggest of all his first road game of the season, 190 yards at Baltimore in a 42-38 game (just like this spot). Look for something similar here. 

The total is probably going to go up as kickoff approaches so now is the time to bet it, but the prop should stay steady.