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NFL Week 1: Tennessee Titans vs. New Orleans Saints betting picks, preview
New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4). Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Week 1: Tennessee Titans vs. New Orleans Saints betting picks, preview

We've got some inter-conference play on our hands in this one between Tennessee and New Orleans. The Titans are coming off a disappointing 2022 after making the playoffs in three straight seasons. The Saints will see what they with newly-acquired quarterback Derek Carr joining the team from Las Vegas.

Tennessee Titans vs. New Orleans Saints: Betting Odds

Spread: New Orleans -3, Over/under: 41 points, Tennessee +140 | New Orleans -166

Tennessee is running it back with Ryan Tannehill, at least to start. The Titans have drafted quarterbacks in each of the past two drafts. If Tannehill struggles, don't be surprised to see Malik Willis or Will Levis at some point. The signing of DeAndre Hopkins at least indicates that the Titans are trying to have a successful year, but I am not convinced.

New Orleans should have a strong offense, and the defense is at least serviceable. Both teams were elite at hitting the under last year, Tennessee was 12-5 to the under and New Orleans was 11-6. The Titans were one of the better teams ATS at 9-7-1, while the Saints were only 7-10 ATS.

Betting Picks for Tennessee vs. New Orleans

New Orleans ML & Derek Carr 250+ passing yards (+245 DK)

I am optimistic that Derek Carr is going to bring a massive upgrade at the quarterback position to this New Orleans offense. Chris Olave is poised for a second-year breakout at WR after a strong rookie season. Michael Thomas is healthy. The team also has nice complementary pass-catchers in WR Rashid Shaheed and TE Juwan Johnson.

This Titans secondary was abysmal last season. Both DVOA and PFF have them down as a bottom-10 unit, and they allowed the fourth-most yards per pass attempt in 2022. Tennessee also allowed the second-most receptions to WRs and the third-most receptions to TEs, suggesting to me plenty of easy work is coming for Carr and this group.

As such, we'll pair the Saints winning with Carr throwing for 250+ in his debut with the Saints. Carr threw for 250+ in seven games last year, including a 303-yard outing against this Tennessee defense. It seems like the right spot to expect a similar type of performance at home.

Griffin Carroll

Griffin Carroll is focused on bringing you the betting numbers that matter. With a focus on the NFL, NHL and NBA, Griffin relies on a data-driven betting approach for prop bets, spread picks and over/unders. 

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