NFL Week 3: Buffalo Bills vs. Washington Commanders betting picks, preview

Washington is a surprising 2-0 to start the season. I doubt the Cowboys and Eagles are worried, but wins are wins and they are at home on Sunday. I would have made this an automatic W for Buffalo prior to the season, but now maybe there is just a little bit of doubt. It is also very possible that Buffalo puts Washington in its place. 

Buffalo Bills vs. Washington Commanders Betting Trends and Odds

Sunday, September 24, 2023 - 1 p.m. ET

Odds: Buffalo -6.5, Over/under 44.5, Buffalo -285 | Washington +230

Washington is 2-0 and playing at home but is still a significant underdog so you know there is a sizable power ratings gap between these two teams. I agree with that sentiment and it will be interesting to see how the market plays this throughout the week, whether we get the full -7. Washington has just one way to try and play this one to give themselves a chance to win, but Buffalo could win and cover in a variety of ways. 

Picks for Buffalo vs. Washington

Buffalo -6.5, Buffalo to Score First and Win (+105)

Washington has a strong defensive line so there are some out there who think the Commanders might give the Bills the same trouble that the Jets did in Week 1. I am not one of those. While I do not expect Buffalo to make it look as easy as they did last Sunday against Oakland, I love the fact that they were able to have some balance. Yes, the Commanders do have a very good defensive line but the rest of the defense is not nearly as good as New York's, and Bills QB Josh Allen has "gotten it all out of his system." This is not a hype game either, so once again he knows he can win without having to be Superman. Also, did you see the balance the Bills had last week with running the ball? Washington has not been great against the run thus far. Allen plays mistake-free in a comfortable win. 

I am always looking for props with + value. So early in the week, they are hard to find on individual players but this one does not appear too risky because Buffalo is definitely the better offensive team. Sam Howell, is a first-year starter at QB for the Commanders so even if they script him, which they will, his chances for early success are not much to worry about. The most likely scenario for this game is that Buffalo is in control throughout. 

This game is definitely going to be in teasers going in both directions. Buffalo is not super public so it might just hold until game time.