NFL Week 4 betting guide: Monday night pick

Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers

Spread: San Francisco -1.5
Total: 42.5 points

Why are the Niners favored here? Sure, they're at home, but they slogged through that game against Denver, and the offense hasn't figured out their way yet. We'll gladly take the points on the defending champs who have won two straight.

Betting: Rams +1.5

Here's the rest of the weekend. See how your bets did, and whether we could have helped.

Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints

Spread: Minnesota -3.5
Total: 41.5 points

Don't forget we have ourselves a London game this week! Those on the East Coast will get to experience what many on the West Coast take for granted, waking up to football immediately. As for the actual game, the Saints are banged up, heading into this one without starting QB Jameis Winston and WR Michael Thomas. We'll take Kirk Cousins to handle business over Andy Dalton, with Minnesota advancing to 3-1 comfortably.

Betting: Vikings -3.5

Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens

Spread: Buffalo -3
Total: 51 points

No team is allowing more passing yards per game than Baltimore, by a sizable margin. This was the same issue in 2021, and now Josh Allen, fresh off a frustrating loss, gets a chance to get right against a soft secondary. Josh Allen is over his passing yards total in all three games this year, and every quarterback to face the Ravens this season has gone over their passing yards prop.

Betting: Josh Allen over 286.5 passing yards (-114 FD)

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Philadelphia -6.5
Total: 45.5 points

It's Doug Pederson's return to the city to which he delivered a Super Bowl championship, and he should be received warmly before kickoff. The Jaguars have surprisingly been one of the NFL's bright spots to start the year, and the Eagles have dominated en route to being the league's last undefeated team. Who would have thought these would be two of the league's best defenses by Week 4? We're betting on the defensive units keeping this one under. Our prediction: Eagles 24, Jaguars 20

Betting: Under 45.5 points

Cleveland Browns @ Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Cleveland -1
Total: 47.5 points

Atlanta's defense has been one of the most susceptible to chunk plays through the air this season, allowing 11 passes of 20+ yards and allowing quarterbacks to average 7.5 yards per attempt, good for third-highest in the NFL. Amari Cooper has had back-to-back 101-yard games and seems poised for another solid outing on Sunday.

Betting: Amari Cooper over 59.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)

Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans

Spread: Los Angeles -5
Total: 45 points

The Chargers have allowed three rushing touchdowns this season, and were one of the most vulnerable defenses to RB scores last year as well. Rookie Dameon Pierce has seemingly taken on the top-dog duties in this offense in a hurry. His carry totals have grown from 11 to 15 to 20, with Pierce scoring his first touchdown last week. It looks like another good week to find the end zone for the young running back.

Betting: Dameon Pierce TD (+145 DK)

Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys

Spread: Dallas -3
Total: 41 points

We just watched Carson Wentz get sacked nine times and now he has to deal with Micah Parsons and this Cowboys menacing pass rush. It's hard to see a world where Washington keeps their quarterback upright. It's crazy that Cooper Rush is 3-0 as a starter and that we're backing him here, but we are.

Betting: Dallas -3

Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions

Spread: Detroit -4
Total: 47.5 points

Detroit is going to be without two of its most important players on Sunday, with running back D'Andre Swift and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown both out this weekend. That is a massive chunk of the offense absent, which isn't going to make Jared Goff's life the easiest. The Lions are 3-0 ATS, but that's a run that has to come an end eventually. Let's call it Sunday.

Betting: Seahawks +4

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts

Spread: Indianapolis -3.5
Total: 43 points

The Titans are tied with two other teams for most touchdowns allowed to receivers through three weeks, and last year there were only three teams that allowed more scores to wideouts. This was a team to target for touchdowns last season, and they've picked up right where they left off. If you like a long shot, we'd like to recommend Alec Pierce of the Colts. The rookie receiver had a solid Week 3 performance, catching three balls for 61 yards. He's tied with Michael Pittman for the most redzone looks among this team's receivers, so we're betting he scores his first career touchdown this weekend.

Betting: Alec Pierce TD (+370 FD)

Chicago Bears @ New York Giants

Spread: New York -3
Total: 39.5 points

A slight grimace forms on our face when we see that these two teams are facing off against each other on Sunday. Don't expect to see very much of this game if you're an avid "RedZone" watcher. Justin Fields and this Bears passing offense have been anemic, so the nod has to go the Giants, who have at least shown some semblance of moving the ball. Let's just bet the under and never think about this game again. Both teams are 2-1 on the under this year.

Betting: Under 39.5 points

New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Pittsburgh -3
Total: 41.5 points

All three quarterbacks who have faced the Steelers this season have gone over their passing yards prop, and this Jets offense has legitimate weapons at receiver, which is why Joe Flacco is fifth in the NFL in passing yards coming into Week 4. Well, Zach Wilson is back, and we're excited for his season debut. We're betting that Wilson gels with his young weapons immediately and picks apart this Steelers secondary. His prop total is low, but Pittsburgh has allowed an average of 270 passing yards per game.

Betting: Zach Wilson over 206.5 passing yards (-115 DK)

Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers

Spread: Arizona -1
Total: 43.5 points

We'd love to bet a Carolina receiver to break a long pass in this game given how vulnerable Arizona's secondary has been, but it's so hard to trust Baker Mayfield. Instead we turn to the running game. Since getting torched by Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in Week 1, the Panthers rush defense has performed admirably against some pretty strong backs. Carolina held both Alvin Kamara and Saquon Barkley under their rushing totals, and their next task is James Conner. Conner hasn't yet exceeded 40 rushing yards in a game this season, carrying the ball just 30 times. He saw Carolina last season and finished with 39 rushing yards.

Betting: James Conner under 49.5 rushing yards (-110 DK)

New England Patriots @ Green Bay Packers

Spread: Green Bay -9
Total: 40.5 points

The Patriots have yet to cover a spread this year, and now they have to (likely) trot out Brian Hoyer to match up with Aaron Rodgers, at Lambeau no less. This game should not be particularly close. New England has not looked good at all.

Betting: Packers -9

Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders

Spread: Las Vegas -2.5
Total: 45.5 points

Not many would have predicted the Raiders would be the last winless team in the league, and oddsmakers certainly think that ends this weekend given the spread. Russell Wilson has not looked good, and it's difficult to see that changing here. We think the Raiders will win, but we don't love the points. We also think this game could get ugly. Our approach is to tease down the spread and tease up the under, listed below.

Betting: Raiders +4.5, Under 51.5 (+100 DK)

Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: Tampa Bay -1
Total: 46 points

We know Tom Brady and the Bucs have been missing their top receivers, but this offense has looked even worse than expected. Coming off a loss, the expectation from us is a Chiefs offense that takes it to Tampa Bay. Patrick Mahomes should be firing on all cylinders and we like the Chiefs to take this one in a Super Bowl LV rematch.

Betting: Chiefs +1