New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones. Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Week 4: New England Patriots vs. Dallas Cowboys betting picks, preview

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated Sep 28, 2023 7:58 PM ET

New England grabbed its first win of the year, while Dallas lost as 13-point favorites. Are the Cowboys set to course correct or is trouble brewing for this Super Bowl hopeful?

New England Patriots vs. Dallas Cowboys: Betting Odds

Spread: Dallas -6.5, Over/under: 43.5 points, New England +230 | Dallas -285

The Patriots squeaked out a win over the Jets last week in the rain, taking it 15-10. Through three games, New England has allowed the ninth-fewest points per game, and that's with games against the Eagles and Dolphins under their belts.

Dallas was a part of by far the most surprising result of this young 2023 season, falling to the Arizona Cardinals 28-16. Arizona's offense registered plenty of chunk plays, while Dak Prescott and Co. could not get the ball into the end zone once they got close.

The Cowboys are 2-1 ATS while the Patriots have covered just once. Same deal for the over/under, with Dallas 2-1 to the over and New England just 1-2.

Betting Picks for New England vs. Dallas

New England +6.5 (-110 DraftKings)

I think the market is wrong on both fronts here. I backed the Patriots when they were only 2.5-point favorites against Zach Wilson, and now we're seeing them nearly touchdown underdogs to a team that just lost by two scores to the Arizona Cardinals. This team deserves some more respect.

Mac Jones may not be a premier passer, but the Patriots should find lanes to run the ball on this defense. And speaking of defenses, New England has a very underrated group who has done a good job limiting some very solid units.

Dak Prescott does not look good, and I'm not seeing a reason why the Cowboys should be such decisive favorites here. I'll back Bill Belichick and the Pats to at least keep this one close. They had a pair of one-score losses to Philly and Miami, in case you forgot. Those two squads are a combined 6-0.

Bonus prop angle: Ezekiel Elliott is playing his former team this week. We have to at least consider a revenge touchdown, right?

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Griffin Carroll

Griffin Carroll is focused on bringing you the betting numbers that matter. With a focus on the NFL, NHL and NBA, Griffin relies on a data-driven betting approach for prop bets, spread picks and over/unders.

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