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Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) hands off to running back De'Von Achane (28). Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Betting: What we learned in Week 3 and how to use it in Week 4

By Matt Wiesenfeld | Last updated 9/26/23

Monday night we got another "MNF" doubleheader. In it, Philadelphia won with ease and the Bengals might have saved their season. They are actually still the odds-on favorite to win the AFC North even though they are a game behind everyone else so far. Week 3 had one major upset with Arizona beating Dallas. I don't know what that was, karma? I didn't even see the possibility so I didn't tune in to the game.

From what I did see these are the things rolling around my mind.

Yes, Miami

We all knew the Dolphins had enough speedy dynamic talent to be one of the best offenses in the league ... if quarterback Tua Tagoviloa stayed healthy. But 70 points in a game? And with No. 2 receiver Jaylen Waddle out? This team has looked pretty unstoppable and might just be figuring out how to use all of its weapons. We might not see a total under 50 on them the rest of the way.

Betting takeaway ... Miami visits Buffalo this week in what will be the game of the week. You have to think they might be a little overvalued, even as underdogs.

Jacksonville ... What Happened?

Also in Florida, the Jaguars inexplicably stubbed their toe against Houston. I am sure a lot of folks, including me, had them in teasers and ML parlays and they outright lost at home by 20 in a game where the stats were actually in their favor. It is hard to explain all the way around, but don't fret yet. This is still the best team in the AFC South. They are heading into their London portion of the schedule, with back-to-back games against Atlanta and Buffalo. They need to get at least one.

Betting Takeaway...normally I would be looking to back the Jags off their weak performance, but stay away from games in the UK. Too many variables to account for.

Jets are Unbackable

It is never good when your team icon (in this case Joe Namath) is not behind your quarterback. This was of course bound to happen after Aaron Rodgers went down, but back-to-back games with just 10 points scored is pretty rough. It is not Zach Wilson's fault that he has not progressed as a passer. Well it is, but the Jets seem to have not taken the possibility of a Rodgers injury seriously enough so here we are. New York still has three more games until their bye week but that looks like it is going to be too late.

Betting takeaway ... this past week was the kind of game the Jets were supposed to be able to still win with Wilson (they were at home and facing an unimpressive Pats team). You just don't win much without scoring so New York is an auto-fade until further notice.

3-0

After three weeks we have only three 3-0 teams left — Miami, Philadelphia, and San Francisco. All have looked very sharp, especially Miami, which is the only real surprise in the group. The odds are that this group is reduced to two with Miami not even favored at the Bills this Sunday. Philadelphia hosts the Dolphins and the 49ers later in the season so perhaps the idea of skating through to the top seed in the NFC again isn't fair.

Betting takeaway ... Am I the only one who thinks SF might still be underrated? They are -14 hosting Arizona and it feels like that line will only go up.

The Steeler Way

Pittsburgh was a victim of the 49ers in Week 1 and it wasn't pretty. Since then they are 2-0, winning games they have no business doing so. As long as QB Kenny Pickett is leading the offense the Steelers are not going to scare anyone, but wins are wins and they already have double those of the Bengals, Chargers and Jaguars, all teams who some think could win the AFC. Discounting the Steelers is always at your own risk.

Betting takeaway ... relying on pick-sixes and D/ST scores will drive you nuts, but when it happens again and again there has to be something there right. Pittsburgh might be the most underrated team in the league or the hardest to rate so there could be an advantage there ... if we can figure it out.

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