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NFL Week 4 touchdown props: Three value bets at +200 or higher
We've been a bit cold in the touchdown market lately, but you can't appreciate the highs without the lows. I was thinking though that it would be way more fun if we win these bets. Week 4 could be just what the doctor ordered, as there are some very enticing spots to consider.
I've got three touchdown bets, all for a half-unit.
Samaje Perine (+265 DK)
This Denver-Chicago game is either going to be the ugliest game of the season between two 0-3 teams or a betting goldmine. I see no in-between. I prefer to bank on struggling offenses to figure things out when they have such horrible defenses opposite them, and boy oh boy do we have that here.
I wanted one of these Broncos running backs against Chicago for a simple reason. Through three weeks, the Bears have allowed seven touchdowns to running backs. That's second to only, well, Denver. But hey — the Broncos just let up eight in one game so let's give them a break.
The Bears have done a good job consistently letting runners score against them, and this is following a 2022 season in which they allowed the second-most TDs to running backs.
I prefer Perine because he's got Javonte Williams beaten by just a tad in red zone usage, taking five carries to Williams's four. This was a role Perine served last season as well for Cincinnati, and while Williams touches the ball far more frequently, I prefer opting for the better odds.
D.J. Moore (+275 Barstool)
We have to stay in this game. I mean, how in the world do we not bet against the Denver defense that just let up 70 points? While we shouldn't have expected 10 touchdowns against the Broncos last week, their defense has been a major pain-point to start the season and figures to remain so.
What I really want to target is their passing defense. They've been extremely vulnerable to chunk passing plays, and if anyone is going to take advantage of that, it has to be D.J. Moore. Oh and their five touchdowns allowed to WRs is tied for second-most in the league.
Moore is playing nearly 95% of the team's snaps, leads the WRs in targets, and has seen two in the red zone. He's also broken a long touchdown, which is a situation I could see delivering for us this Sunday.
Jakobi Meyers (+210 FD)
Let the record show: Davante Adams is a great bet to score. In fact, I'll likely parlay that with Ja'Marr Chase in a chalky type of combo. I'd like to diversify myself against this very bad Chargers secondary, and there is truly no other choice on this Raiders offense than Jakobi Meyers.
Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use.
Before we get to Meyers's usage, we should probably discuss why we want to target Los Angeles so much. The Chargers have allowed the most touchdowns to wide receivers, for one thing, but they've also allowed the most 20+ yard passes and the third-highest yards allowed per pass attempt.
That all suggests a big day coming for the Raiders wideouts. In just two games, Meyers has seen 22 targets, five of which have come in the red zone. He's scored twice, and with Adams demanding attention, we find some value here in the other Las Vegas WR.
Year-to-date: 5-13 (-0.75u)
Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use.
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