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NFL Week 5 'MNF' player prop: It all comes up Josh Jacobs
Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (8). Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Week 5 'MNF' player prop: It all comes up Josh Jacobs

By Griffin Carroll  |  Last updated 10/9/23

If you bet Josh Jacobs tonight, you've been warned. He's averaging only 2.7 yards/carry on the season, just a horrible number for a running back, especially one who won the rushing title just a year ago.

There's a chance we sit here tonight and think, "Wow, this guy can't do a thing with the ball" and "Why the heck did I bet on this guy to rack up so many yards?" Again, that's the warning, but I'm trusting in the numbers I see and loading up a big Josh Jacobs night.

Josh Jacobs over 99.5 rushing & receiving yards (-115 DraftKings)

Jacobs has exceeded this number only once this season, last week's 139-yard outing (58 rushing, 81 receiving). While Jacobs has been inefficient with the ball in his hands, the volume is most definitely still there.

Jacobs has rushed it 62 times and seen 25 targets. That equal involvement is key here and the recipe for a Raiders win.

Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use. 

You see, Green Bay has shown no ability to slow down running backs this season. They've allowed 4.5 yards per carry and 115.3 yards/game to running backs, both bottom-10 marks in the NFL. Not only are they getting gashed on the ground, they're also allowing the second-most receptions to running backs this year at 6.5 per game.

Given how often Jacobs sees the ball in both facets, I'd project 20+ touches tonight. Now, it's just about trusting he makes the most of that volume, something he hasn't been able to do much of yet this year.

David Montgomery went for 141 total yards in Week 4 against the Packers. Bijan Robinson piled up 172 total yards in Week 2, and Khalil Herbert/Roschon Johnson combined for 119 to start the year.

Jacobs is RB1 and it's not particularly close; it's his turn to capitalize against this Green Bay defense.


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