Green Bay Packers wide receiver Jayden Reed (11). Tork Mason / USA TODAY NETWORK

NFL Week 5 'MNF' touchdown prop: The slot is the spot

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 10/9/23

This Packers-Raiders Monday night contest has an over/under of 46.5 and defenses that have shown a vulnerability in a variety of ways. That should mean touchdowns, and there's some nice value on the board in this one.

Looking Green Bay's way tonight

The Raiders have allowed eight passing touchdowns this season, which was good for third-most in the league heading into Week 5.

Of those eight touchdowns, five have come from players who line up in the slot, either a wide receiver or a tight end. Seeing that trend just confirms the player I already had circled as the best value for a touchdown: Jayden Reed.

Reed is Green Bay's slot WR and has had a solid role this season, second on the team in targets (25) and playing 60.5% of the offensive snaps. Now yes, Christian Watson missed the first three games, but Reed still saw five targets last week with Watson back, and if anything, should have even less defensive attention going his way with Green Bay's passing attack getting healthier.

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What I really love to see is the red zone usage. Reed has already seen nine targets inside the 20, most on the team by a sizable chunk, and he's scored two touchdowns.

Knowing that Las Vegas has had issues guarding the slot, I'm excited about the price we're getting on Jayden Reed here.