NFL Week 5: Picks and preview

STREAMING: PRIME VIDEO            LINE: Denver -3.5

The Broncos were Las Vegas’ first victim of the season, and Denver’s offense continued to sputter; Russell Wilson had his first three-touchdown game with his new team, but the running game was mostly nonexistent, and things on that front have gone from bad to worse. Javonte Williams is done for the season with a torn ACL, among other things, and Melvin Gordon’s fumble that Amik Robertson took 68 yards to the house was perhaps the game’s pivotal play. Mike Boone, Broncos Nation turns its lonely eyes to you. Were you, like me, fooled by the Colts’ win over Kansas City? Indy got down 24-3 to Tennessee before rallying to within 24-17 halfway through the third quarter. After that, their final three drives went: punt, fumble, missed field goal. Not great! The ground game, allegedly the Colts’ bread and butter, continues to be the problem; Indianapolis has rushed for 174 yards in its last three games. That simply won’t be good enough moving forward, and with Jonathan Taylor out for this game, it’s hard to imagine an improvement this week.

Look smart to your friends:

-Nyheim Hines figures to play a much bigger role in this game on account of Taylor’s absence, and that may be a good thing. He’s topped 100+ scrimmage yards and had a rushing touchdown in each of his last two Thursday Night Football appearances.

-Bradley Chubb has also been a Thursday terror, with 4.5 sacks, 3 tackles for loss, and a forced fumble in two career Thursday night games.

The pick: Broncos 23 Colts 20

TV: NFL NETWORK            LINE: Green Bay -8

New York might be the worst 3-1 team in the league. Of course, that’s better than being the best 1-3 team in the league (it might be the Raiders, in case you’re curious). What’s not so great is not having any quarterbacks, and wouldn’t you know it, that’s precisely the predicament the Giants find themselves in. Daniel Jones has a sprained ankle, and Tyrod Taylor has a concussion. Davis Webb will start if Jones and/or Taylor can’t go, though Jones’ ankle seems to be on the upswing. Webb has never thrown a pass in an NFL game. There’s always beginner’s luck! Aaron Rodgers doesn’t look like “Aaron Rodgers” right now, but he dialed up some great throws when Green Bay needed them most to sneak by a plucky Patriots squad in overtime. Green Bay seems to be intent on battering its opponents into submission with a bruising ground game, and that approach has certainly helped their defense, but Packers fans would no doubt like to see the two-time defending MVP return to vintage form soon.

Look smart to your friends:

-Saquon Barkley is very much resembling the player he can be when healthy; he leads the NFL with 570 scrimmage yards, and is the only player in the league with 3 games of 125+ scrimmage yards.

-Aaron Jones can boast of being the best multi-purpose threat in the league. Since 2019, the Packers’ back is the only running back with 30+ rushing touchdowns (30) and 10+ receiving touchdowns (12).

The pick: Packers 31 Giants 16

TV: CBS            LINE: Buffalo -14

It’s Kenny Pickett time for the Steelers, as the 20^th pick in this year’s draft took over for an ineffective Mitch Trubisky at halftime against the Jets, ran for two touchdowns, but threw three interceptions, including a crucial one while the Steelers were clinging to a 20-17 lead. Pickett unquestionably created a spark for what had been a pitiful offense, but that was at home against the Jets. Sustaining it on the road against Buffalo will be another matter altogether. The Bills escaped soggy Baltimore with a come-from-behind thriller, helped in part by John Harbaugh’s controversial decision to go for a touchdown on fourth down. Josh Allen’s numbers didn’t look great, but he willed the Bills to the comeback with some gutty runs and big enough plays in the passing game. His reward for that hard work is a Pittsburgh defense that got shredded by Zach Wilson down the stretch last week.

Look smart to your friends:

-Pickett threw three interceptions in his debut, yes, but he became the first rookie quarterback in NFL history to score two rushing touchdowns in his first career game. Take that, Josh Allen!

-The Steelers’ secondary is beat up, which means Stefon Diggs could have a huge day. He’s looking for his third straight home game with 9+ catches, 80+ receiving yards, and a touchdown.

The pick: Bills 34 Steelers 23

TV: CBS            LINE: Los Angeles -2.5

Los Angeles looked more like the Chargers we expected them to be last week, but the necessary caveat to that statement is that their opponents were the hapless Texans. Presumably, Cleveland should provide a more robust challenge, even with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. The Chargers’ defense is still banged up, so there is danger in facing a Cleveland team that can hold onto the ball and dictate the terms of engagement if they get the running game going early on. Speaking of the Browns, remember a week ago, when they were one awful collapse away from being 3-0 and looking fully in control even without Deshaun Watson? One rough loss to the Falcons later, Cleveland is now 2-2 and squarely in the middle of what’s shaping up to be a real AFC North gutter war. The Browns have the Patriots, Ravens and Bengals after this game; they need to get to their bye week no worse than 4-4, because Miami, Buffalo and Tampa Bay loom on the other side.

Look smart to your friends:

-With Justin Herbert in no way 100 percent, Austin Ekeler will have to be great to keep Los Angeles’ offense chugging. He has been a road warrior dating back to last season, and is bidding for his sixth-straight road game with 90+ scrimmage yards.

-Tight end David Njoku loves seeing the Chargers on the schedule; he has 50+ yards and a touchdown catch in each of his last three games against Los Angeles.

The pick: Browns 28 Chargers 24

TV: FOX            LINE: Minnesota -7.5

Congratulations to Justin Fields, who completed a season-high 11 passes last week, the first time all season he’s topped 8 in a single game. Calling Chicago’s passing game terrible would be an insult to terrible things everywhere. The Bears have the fewest attempts and completions in the league, and the second-fewest touchdowns. They do run the ball quite well, which is nice, but this team is going nowhere until they start getting the ball downfield through the air with more regularity. Minnesota probably should have given away their game against the Saints, and they almost did just that, what with the whole “stop playing defense while trying to protect a late lead” bit. Thanks to a Wil Lutz double-doink, however, the Vikings find themselves 3-1 and already in possession of a victory over Green Bay. Pretty nice place to be in the NFC North, but then again, this would also be time for a classic nonsensical Minnesota loss. It’s a nice test for Kevin O’Connell, in that regard.

Look smart to your friends:

-Chicago’s passing game is terrible, but Khalil Herbert has been a big bright spot on the ground. He had 101 scrimmage yards last week, and is looking for his third game in a row with 100+ scrimmage yards.

-Harrison Smith isn’t always mentioned as one of the game’s great safeties, but he should be. Smith is the only active player with 30+ interceptions (30) and 15+ sacks (16.5).

The pick: Vikings 30 Bears 14

TV: FOX            LINE: New England -3

If teams won and lost games solely on vibes, the Lions would be undefeated. They’re chaotic, offensively explosive, and they play no defense whatsoever, but they’re fun. Sadly, games are decided based on points, not vibes, and while Detroit is scoring 35 per game, they’re giving up 35.3, and they’re 1-3. Here’s a fun thought exercise: What would happen if the Lions’ defense tried to stop the Lions’ offense? Would every drive be one play, and end in a touchdown? The Patriots may well have to go with Bailey Zappe in this game; Brian Hoyer has a head injury and Mac Jones’ ankle still seems less than great. New England might not need a quarterback, though; in addition to being the worst scoring defense and worst total defense in the league, Detroit also “boasts” the worst rush defense in the NFL. The Pats have been quite good at running the ball the last three weeks, so maybe a little – or a lot – of ground and pound is in order against Dan Campbell’s kneecap biters.

Look smart to your friends:

-T.J. Hockenson’s 179 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns last week were both career bests, and the 179 yards were even more impressive; that was the highest single-game total by a tight end in Lions history.

-If Zappe starts, the Patriots figure to lean on their running game, which is fine, because Damien Harris has six straight games with a rushing touchdown at home, and Rhamondre Stevenson is looking for his third-straight home game with 100+ scrimmage yards and a touchdown.

The pick: Lions 31 Patriots 27

TV: FOX            LINE: New Orleans -5.5

So, did Seattle somehow end up with a better quarterback situation after the Russell Wilson trade? Geno Smith has 6 touchdowns and 2 interceptions thus far, and the Seahawks have only played one total dud. Is it likely that he’ll maintain a 108 passer rating all year? Of course not. Is it plausible that he might not be nearly as bad as people thought coming into the season? Absolutely. And that makes Seattle a lot more interesting. The Saints came up just short in London against Minnesota, and now the question is whether or not Jameis Winston will try to give it a go, or if Andy Dalton will get another start. Dalton was solid against Minnesota and gave the Saints a chance to send the game to overtime. Solid might be just what the doctor ordered against Seattle, because New Orleans’ defense is far more capable than Detroit’s, and turnovers would be the Saints’ main impediment to winning.

Look smart to your friends:

-Smith’s 77.6 completion percentage through four games isn’t just the best in the NFL this year, it’s the best in league history for a quarterback through four games (minimum 125 attempts).

-Demario Davis had a massive game the last time these teams met. Davis had 10 tackles, 4 tackles for loss, 2 sacks and a pass defensed his last time against Seattle.

The pick: Saints 24 Seahawks 19

TV: CBS            LINE: Miami -3.5

We already know that Tua Tagovailoa won’t play in this game after his frightening concussion against the Bengals, and Mike McDaniel has already had to answer questions about whether the timing of that announcement was related to the imbroglio surrounding the handling of Tagovailoa’s injury two weeks ago against Buffalo. So that should give you a good idea of where things are at with Miami. Teddy Bridgewater is a solid enough backup, however, and Miami still has more talent than New York. That said, the Jets are – wait for it – flying high (I’m sorry) after a comeback win against the Steelers. Zach Wilson started very slowly, and at one point was 8-for-24 against the Steelers, but he caught fire late and drove the Jets to two fourth-quarter touchdowns to sneak out of Pittsburgh with a 24-20 win. New York will need to find some semblance of a running game, however, because similar heroics against Miami are unlikely, even in a friendlier home environment.

Look smart to your friends:

-Bridgewater’s last few outings against the AFC East have been productive. He’s posted a 70+ completion percentage and a 100+ passer rating in three of his last four games against the division.

-Lamarcus Joyner had a monster game against Pittsburgh. Joyner posted 6 tackles, 4 passes defensed and 2 interceptions against the Steelers.

 The pick: Dolphins 27 Jets 24

TV: FOX            LINE: Tampa Bay -9.5

Cordarrelle Patterson is on injured reserve, and with him goes most of Atlanta’s offense, and the onus will likely fall to rookie Tyler Allgeier to pick up the slack. Patterson had developed into one of the league’s most productive runners, so replacing his production while he’s out is probably too much to ask of just one person. Like Seattle, the Falcons have been plucky despite preseason expectations that pegged them as one of the league’s worst teams. Here’s a math problem for you: What do you get when you add up a humiliating home beating at the hands of Patrick Mahomes, high-profile marital strife for your quarterback, and most of your receivers getting healthy? A beatdown, which is precisely what I would expect Tampa Bay to deliver on the heels of what happened to them against Kansas City. The Bucs aren’t close to as bad as they looked in that game, and the short-handed Falcons will likely help them prove it.

Look smart to your friends:

-Here’s a fun fact about Marcus Mariota. He made his NFL debut at Tampa Bay in 2015, and passed for 4 touchdowns and no interceptions, as well as a perfect 158.3 passer rating.

-Linebacker Devin White is having a huge year and has been great historically against Atlanta. He has 5 sacks, 6 tackles for loss and a fumble-recovery touchdown in five career games against the Falcons.

The pick: Buccaneers 34 Falcons 21

TV: CBS            LINE: Tennessee -1.5

Tennessee jumped out to a big lead on the Colts and then held on for dear life, evening their record and picking up a valuable division win in the process. Most encouraging for the Titans was that Derrick Henry looked a lot more like Derrick Henry in the game. Least encouraging for the Titans was the fact that they had three very unproductive drives once they built their big lead that allowed the Colts back into the game. Better to be dealing with that inconsistency at 2-2 rather than 1-3. Washington…stinks? That seems about right. The Commanders looked terrible against Dallas, and their season-opening win against the Jaguars looks more and more like a fluke with each passing week. After reading the previous three sentences, this probably won’t surprise you either, but Carson Wentz has been pretty terrible since that first game. He put up big numbers against the Lions in Week 2, but everyone does that. The last two weeks? 381 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Who, besides literally anyone who’s watched Wentz play in the last few years, could have seen this coming?

Look smart to your friends:

-Kevin Byard had a humongous game the last time Tennessee saw Washington. He had 9 tackles, 2 passes defensed and an interception in the teams’ last meeting.

-Washington’s fortunes are heading in the wrong direction, but defensive tackle Jonathan Allen has been a force, ranking second in the NFL this year with 7 tackles for loss.

The pick: Titans 26 Commanders 19

TV: CBS            LINE: Jacksonville -7

The Texans are the NFL’s only remaining winless team, but they certainly haven’t been an embarrassment. Three of Houston’s four games have been decided by 7 points or less, and one was decided by zero points – they call those ties. Davis Mills has had one good game, two very bad games, and one average game, and yet I feel like I need to see more before I fully pass judgment on him. A team that isn’t good but isn’t car-wreck bad isn’t terribly interesting. That’s the Texans! Jacksonville is objectively good, and I think the sooner we all accept this reality, the better. There’s no shame in losing to the Eagles, even though the Jaguars blew a lead in the process. There is one obviously alarming thing, and that’s Trevor Lawrence’s propensity to turn the ball over, particularly fumble it. He lost four fumbles against Philadelphia, becoming the first Jacksonville player to “accomplish” that feat, and the first NFL player this century to do so. Still, these aren’t your father’s Jaguars. They’re good. Take a breath, Duval.

Look smart to your friends:

-Brandin Cooks might be in for a big day, even against an improved Jaguars defense. In five career games against Jacksonville, he’s averaging 120.2 receiving yards, and has 5 touchdowns.

-Linebacker Foyesade Oluokun might not be a name you know, but his 16-tackle game last week gave him three this season with 15 or more, the most in the NFL.

The pick: Jaguars 33 Texans 20

TV: CBS            LINE: San Francisco -6.5

San Francisco delivered a pretty loud statement against the Rams on Monday Night Football, drubbing the defending champs and looking pretty dominant in the process. The only thing that was close until the last half of the fourth quarter was the score, but it doesn’t change how much the Niners controlled play. Jimmy Garoppolo played a typical Jimmy Garoppolo game, and Deebo Samuel did Deebo Samuel things. Pretty nice formula, when you think about it. The 49ers need a win here, and once against Atlanta, because a Chiefs-Rams-bye week-Chargers gauntlet awaits. Remember how I said that Atlanta and Seattle were both forecast to be horrible teams, but have actually been solid so far? Not the Panthers. They’re terrible. I’m not really sure what else to say about them. No team has gained fewer yards on offense, and the Baker Mayfield experiment is already looking rough. How bad is it? Matt Rhule is already having to give dismissive non-denial denials in response to questions about college coaching vacancies. I’m sure this will end well.

Look smart to your friends:

-Nick Bosa is producing at a high level, leading the league this year with 6 sacks, and leading the league since the start of 2021 with 27 tackles for loss.

-Christian McCaffrey isn’t always healthy, but when he is, he’s always productive. McCaffrey ranks 5 ^th all-time (minimum 60 games) with 113.1 scrimmage yards per game. He also had 155 scrimmage yards and a touchdown his last time out against the 49ers.

The pick: 49ers 24 Panthers 20

TV: FOX            LINE: Los Angeles -5.5

It’s Cooper Rush’s world and we’re just living in it. Rush is 3-0 in relief of Dak Prescott, and it isn’t like he’s just been along for the ride; he’s playing solid, workmanlike, mistake-free football, and Dallas is thriving as a result. The Cowboys have put the ball in his hands a decent amount of the time; he’s averaging just about 30 pass attempts per game, and was hitting some big shots downfield last week against the Commanders. Is there going to be a quarterback controversy in Dallas? Well, no. But maybe? Nah. Rush is saving their season, though. The Rams looked rough against San Francisco, never getting anything going offensively, and watching as their defense eventually eroded. It’s kind of wild that a team coached by Sean McVay, with Matthew Stafford at quarterback, is 29 ^th in the league in scoring, and 28^th in total yards. If you want to really identify a culprit, point the finger at Stafford, who threw a pick-six against the Niners to seal Los Angeles’ fate, and has 6 interceptions on the year. I tried to warn you about him, I hope you listened!

Look smart to your friends:

-Rush made some history with his last win; he is the first quarterback in league history to win each of his first four career starts while posting a 90+ passer rating in each game.

-Stafford has been uneven so far this year, but maybe a visit from Dallas is just what he needs. The last time he saw the Cowboys was 2018, and he threw for 307 yards and 2 touchdowns, with, crucially, no interceptions.

The pick: Rams 40 Cowboys 27

TV: FOX            LINE: Philadelphia -5.5

Well friends, I regret to inform you that the Eagles look every bit like the NFL’s best team. They never blinked despite a 14-0 deficit against Jacksonville, and ripped off 29 unanswered points to take full control of the game. Jalen Hurts’ stats don’t always look pretty, but he stacks wins, and his multi-faceted skill set makes Philadelphia very tough to defend. Philadelphia is second in total offense and third in total defense. I know what you’re thinking; those polite, friendly Philly fans deserved something nice like this. I don’t know what to make of the Cardinals, or Kyler Murray for that matter. Arizona can look utterly awful and thrilling, usually in the same game. Murray makes some of the worst throws I’ve ever seen, then follows them up with some of the best. By some metrics, no quarterback in the league has made more high-level, high-difficulty throws this year. If Arizona stays true to form, they’ll stomp the Eagles in this game, and then lose to Seattle next week.

Look smart to your friends:

-The Eagles aren’t just undefeated, they’ve also been offensively dominant. Philadelphia became just the seventh team since 1970 to begin a season 4-0, and put up 400+ yards of offense in each game.

-Murray certainly runs hot and cold, but the last time he saw the Eagles, he put up a big game, posting 406 yards and 4 total touchdowns (3 pass, 1 rush).

The pick: Cardinals 31 Eagles 30

TV: NBC            LINE: Baltimore -3

Cincinnati’s troubles from early this season aren’t fully behind them, but the Bengals have grabbed two wins in a row, and are starting to look more like the team everyone thought they would be before the season. Joe Burrow, in particular, has looked a lot better, which probably has something to do with the fact that he’s been sacked three times in the last two weeks, after going down 13 times in the first two games. As long as he stays upright, the Bengals will be tough to beat. Baltimore once again found themselves on the wrong end of a controversial John Harbaugh coaching decision. Harbaugh went for the likely kill shot against Buffalo, came up empty, and lost to a field goal as a result. The other problem for the Ravens against Buffalo is that they couldn’t hold a 20-3 lead. In rainy conditions, and with Lamar Jackson under center, that should have been automatic. Buffalo deserves some credit, to be sure, but Baltimore needs to fix its defense, which is 23 ^rd in scoring and 30^th in yards allowed.

Look smart to your friends:

-Burrow loves prime time. In three such starts, he has 7 touchdowns and no interceptions, to go along with a 108 passer rating.

-J.K. Dobbins is a player to watch in this one. He rushed for a career-high 160 yards and had 2 rushing touchdowns in his last game against the Bengals, and is looking for his sixth home game in a row with a rushing touchdown.

The pick: Bengals 34 Ravens 30

TV: ESPN            LINE: Kansas City -7

Congratulations to the Raiders on finally winning a game. Let’s get that out of the way right off the bat. Las Vegas also doesn’t look like the worst team in the AFC West. I would put that designation on the Broncos, whose problems I could see compounding sooner rather than later. That said, this is the problem with playing in the NFL’s Thunderdome division; you can’t even enjoy a crucial, potentially season-saving win for a few days before Patrick Mahomes shows up and kills the buzz. Speaking of Mahomes, he and Andy Reid delivered a masterpiece against Tampa Bay, throttling the Bucs and serving notice that rumors of their demise were greatly exaggerated. What really jumped out about the performance was that the usually pass-happy Reid stuck to the running game and pounded arguably the NFL’s most fearsome defense into submission. If Kansas City can strike that kind of balance all year, it’s hard to imagine any team stopping them for a quarter of football, let alone a full game. That nervous gulping noise you just heard came from the rest of the league.

Look smart to your friends:

-Derek Carr has been tough to beat on Monday Night Football. He’s won four of his last five starts on Monday night and is looking for his fourth-straight Monday night game with 2+ touchdown passes.

-Clyde Edwards-Helaire is one of just two players in the NFL this year, along with Jamaal Williams, with 2 touchdowns in multiple games this season.

The pick: Chiefs 38 Raiders 34