NFL Week 5 Predictions

As the league enters Week 5, some teams are in unfamiliar positions. The Patriots' defense has been absolutely strafed all season, they are perilously close to being 1-3 and Bill Belichick needs to find some answers. Conversely, the Buffalo Bills are forcing turnovers in bunches and off to a stunning 3-1 start.

Perhaps most surprising of all is the play of Deshaun Watson, who has ripped apart New England and Tennessee after a victorious, but mostly unimpressive, display in his first start. Watson will get a crack at the Chiefs, who continue to roll along as the league's only remaining unbeaten team behind a balanced offense and a fearsome pass rush.

Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET (NFL Network)

A short turnaround leaves little time for the suddenly mortal Pats to find answers to what has been a historically bad defense thus far. Through four games, New England has allowed 128 points, second-most all time for a defending Super Bowl champion. Jameis Winston doesn't present the running threat that Deshaun Watson and Cam Newton did, but he does have an elite target in Mike Evans. The key here might be Tampa's defense, which has surrendered the third-most yards per game in the league so far. The Bucs have managed to blunt the scoring impact, though, ranking 16th in points per game given up. That might be a tough standard to maintain against Tom Brady, who has still been razor sharp despite New England's defensive issues.

Pick: Patriots

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Jacksonville is the league's most inconsistent team. One week, the Jags are humiliating Baltimore; the next, they're losing in inexplicable fashion to the Jets. If the pattern holds, they'll pull off a shocker in Pittsburgh. Problem is, the Jags can't stop the run, and the Le'Veon Bell Express appears to finally have left the station and gathered speed. The Steelers bludgeoned the Ravens Sunday with Bell totaling nearly 200 yards from scrimmage and James Conner finding big success on his handful of touches. The Steelers' defense is healthy, too, which may mean plenty of headaches for Blake Bortles, who was unable to orchestrate anything resembling consistent offense against the Jets after an impressive first drive.

Pick: Steelers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

If you had the Bills at 3-1 and alone atop the AFC East, please raise your hand. Since I see no hands raised, let's proceed. Buffalo is arguably the biggest surprise in the league thus far, doing it with defense. The Bills have the NFL's No. 1 scoring defense, and they're playing takeaway with seven turnovers through four games. Buffalo is also taking care of the ball marvelously, having only turned it over once so far this year. That said, Cincinnati has been nearly as good on defense and, after a truly ugly opener against Baltimore, has slowly improved in every game. This feels like a game Buffalo should win if it wants to prove this strong start isn't a mirage, which is why it probably won't.

Pick: Bengals

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

Remember when these two teams were supposed to be racing to the bottom of the standings? So far, the Jets haven't gotten the memo. Cleveland has gotten predictably poor play from DeShone Kizer, but watching him, it is obvious that the raw material is there. The pieces, while still far apart, are showing some signs of coming together for the Browns if you squint hard enough. New York had plenty of running success against Jacksonville with Bilal Powell and Elijah McGuire each ripping off huge touchdown runs, but Cleveland has been stingy against opposing ground games, only allowing three yards per carry, third best in the league. Can Josh McCown beat the Browns through the air? Maybe, but the guess here is that Kizer makes a few plays and the Jets revert to being, well, the Jets.

Pick: Browns

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

Detroit has sort of chugged along for four games, going 3-1 in somewhat unspectacular fashion. The offense hasn't produced much yardage, ranking 24th, but the Lions are 10th in the league in points per game. Their defense is only 15th in yards per game, yet they rank fourth in scoring defense. What the Lions have done, though, is force turnovers — a league-leading 11, to be exact. They've also taken care of the ball on offense, only surrendering it twice. Carolina's defense has been stingy, but the Panthers finally exploded on offense in New England, shredding the Patriots for 444 yards of offense and 33 points. They have, however, turned it over seven times thus far, which is ominous considering what was just written above.

Pick: Lions

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

Maybe it is East Coast bias, or maybe it is the fact that they aren't breaking in a young quarterback, but the 49ers just aren't a terribly interesting team. They're not far from being 2-2 either, but 0-4 feels much more in line with what they are and probably what they need to be as a franchise so they can draft their quarterback of the future. Indianapolis is in limbo with Jacoby Brissett showing some promise but the team obviously tied to Andrew Luck. The Colts were in it for a half before being demolished by Seattle. They'll probably fare a bit better against a 49ers team that most likely won't be able to easily exploit their defensive shortcomings. Difficult game to forecast, so when in doubt, go with the home team.

Pick: Colts

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Is it more embarrassing to be shut out in front of half-interested fans in a foreign country or to have 57 points put on you by a rookie quarterback making only his third career start? Needless to say, the Titans and the Dolphins enter Week 5 in need of a win. Tennessee's defense has been absolutely torched the past two weeks even though the team eked out a win against Seattle in Week 3. Miami's offense was anemic in London, generating virtually nothing of significance against a Saints team not known for being particularly stout on the defensive side of the ball. The Titans have more talent and should be very motivated to prove that last week's demolition was a fluke. That said, Marcus Mariota may not go, and in that case, all bets are off.

Pick: Titans

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

If San Francisco is the league's least interesting team and the Browns are, on paper, the league's worst team, than the Chargers are the league's saddest team. The 0-4 record is bad enough, but the fact that seats are being covered up in their temporary soccer stadium home due to what appears to be a total lack of interest is a black mark for the NFL. What's worse, Los Angeles keeps losing close games, an unfortunate hallmark of Philip Rivers's last few seasons. The Chargers will meet the supremely disappointing Giants, who still can't find a running game or much offense outside of Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard. The Chargers probably aren't quite as bad as their record. The Giants might be.

Pick: Chargers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

There has been plenty of talk about Jared Goff's transformation into a dangerous quarterback this year, but Carson Wentz hasn't been too shabby, either. His numbers aren't eye-popping, but he has Philadelphia sitting pretty at 3-1, and he's spreading the ball around to a variety of dangerous targets. Plus, LeGarrette Blount has been superb on the ground of late, giving the Eagles plenty of offensive balance. Philly's defense has not been good, but it's fair to wonder whether an offensively challenged Arizona team will be able to do much to exploit that. The Cardinals can't run the ball at all, and their two wins have come against the Colts and 49ers, teams with a combined 1-7 record. Asking them to go on the road and beat Philadelphia seems like too much.

Pick: Eagles

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)

These are desperate times for the silver and black. Derek Carr is out at least two weeks with a fractured transverse process, the team is 2-2 and already two games back of division-leading Kansas City, so Oakland can't afford to lose any more ground. E.J. Manuel is not the kind of backup who necessarily inspires much hope, either. The Ravens are either very bad or are going through a very bad stretch, as evidenced by the fact that they've been outscored 70-16 in their last two games. Without Carr, the Raiders are a mediocre team, but Baltimore minus Marshal Yanda and Brandon Williams has very little to offer. If the Raiders can find a way to get out to an early lead, Joe Flacco and Baltimore's offense will be hard-pressed to answer. Marshawn Lynch may have a big day with Williams out.

Pick: Raiders

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)

At the outset of the season, it would have been hard to fathom the Rams being favored in this game. That was before Jared Goff emerged as one of the up-and-coming young quarterbacks in the game, before Todd Gurley became dangerous again, and before Seattle looked vulnerable on defense and at times one-dimensional on offense. Now, with Chris Carson and Cliff Avril out, the Seahawks will have to try to find a way to both stem the tide of a vicious Los Angeles defensive front and keep Goff and the Rams' offense from going up and down the field, something that has, incredibly, become the norm for them. Seattle's defense has played two good offenses and given up a combined 790 yards in those two games. Los Angeles is a good offense, and it will prove it in this one.

Pick: Rams

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)

The Cowboys need this game more than the Packers, although Green Bay may end up locked in a season-long battle with the Lions for NFC North supremacy. Dallas looked great against the Rams for one half, then did an about face in the second half. The Cowboys' running game seems like a favorable matchup against a decidedly average Packers run defense, though Green Bay has overall been stingy about allowing yards defensively. The big question in this one is whether or not Dallas will be able to both hold up in the secondary against Aaron Rodgers and whether Demarcus Lawrence and the pass rush will get home in time to take some of that burden off the defensive backs.

Pick: Cowboys

Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET (NBC)

This is the best game of the week, so it's a treat that the nation will get to see it in prime time. Deshaun Watson looks like the real deal, and then some, but he will get a stiff test from a Kansas City team that so far appears to be a cut above recent vintage. The Chiefs were able to grind out a tough win against Washington, and Kareem Hunt again topped 100 yards. This is a battle between two very similar squads with aggressive defenses, versatile quarterbacks and some high-end talent at the skill positions. The guess is that the more veteran, battle-tested of those quarterbacks, the one with more polish and more of a variety of weapons to throw to, wins the day — but it will be a great game.

Pick: Chiefs

Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

As usual, the question of who starts at quarterback is swirling around Minnesota. Problem is, whether it is Sam Bradford or Case Keenum, the Vikings won't have Dalvin Cook at their disposal. Injuries have so far derailed what could have been a really fun and dangerous Vikings team, but if Bradford comes back, they should still have more than enough for Chicago. Bears fans won't care if their team wins or loses, because the Mike Glennon era is finally over and it is Mitch Trubisky's time. Even playing at home, he'd probably rather have an easier test than what should be a fast, aggressive Minnesota defense that will be licking its chops. 

Pick: Vikings