NFL Week 6: Dougherty's betting guide 

Cleveland Browns @ Philadelphia Eagles

Sunday, Oct. 13, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Spread: Eagles -8.5
Total: 42.5

Oh, where to start the the Browns? Cleveland ranks dead last in yards per game, yards per pass, third down conversion rate and sacks allowed per game. The line can't block, Deshaun Watson can't play and now 14 defensive players are either on injured reserve, out or questionable. 

The Eagles will be much healthier coming off their bye, as Lane Johnson, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are all expected to return for Week 6. Judging by the injury reports, this is setting up for a comfortable win for Philly.

Mismatch to exploit: Saquon Barkley vs. Browns linebackers

The Browns linebackers were already struggling, and now Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and Jordan Hicks are questionable to play. Barkley should be in store for an explosive afternoon.

Prediction: Eagles 31, Browns 14

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots

Sunday, Oct. 13, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Texans -7
Total: 38.5

The Drake Maye era has officially arrived. Maye will make his first career NFL start this Sunday against a ferocious Texans defensive front, which could spell trouble against New England's decimated offensive line. Jacoby Brissett has been under pressure all season, and it'll be the same for Maye this Sunday.

As for the Texans, they'll be without star wide receiver Nico Collins (hamstring) for at least the next four weeks. It's time for Tank Dell to return to the explosive weapon we saw last season. 

Mismatch to exploit:

The Patriots rank 30th in the NFL in sacks allowed per game, and the wide receivers aren't able to separate consistently. Look for Maye to go under his completions prop.

Prediction: Texans 17, Patriots 13

Washington Commanders @ Baltimore Ravens

Sunday, Oct. 13, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Ravens -6.5
Total: 51.5

Make sure this one gets on the main screen on Sunday. The Commanders and Ravens rank first and second, respectively, in the NFL in points per game. Both defenses have also struggled to limit explosive plays down the field, so you can see why this total starts with a five.

Baltimore's biggest weakness is its secondary which ranks 31st in the league in passing yards allowed per game. Jayden Daniels should continue the historically efficient start to his NFL career. 

Mismatch to exploit: Derrick Henry vs. Commanders rushing defense

Washington ranks 31st in the NFL in yards allowed per rush, and Henry has racked up 442 rushing yards over the last three games. Take a look at his rushing yards over.

Prediction: Ravens 29, Commanders 25

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints

Sunday, Oct. 13, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Spread: Buccaneers -3.5
Total: 41.5

Derek Carr is set to miss multiple weeks with an oblique injury, so the Saints will have to choose between Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener in his absence. Either way, New Orleans will likely continue to struggle on offense as it has for three weeks.

The Buccaneers are catching a huge break in the NFC South race, and they need to take advantage against a backup quarterback making his first start. The Buccaneers also have a four-day rest advantage in this matchup.

Mismatch to exploit: Todd Bowles vs. first-time starting QB

Bowles is going to bring the house against Rattler or Haener, as he's known to do. Take a look at Tampa Bay's sacks props or the starting QB's interception prop.

Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Saints 17

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Las Vegas Raiders

Sunday, Oct. 13, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Steelers -3
Total: 36.5

The Raiders are rolling with Aidan O'Connell instead of Gardner Minshew this week, but he likely won't have Davante Adams to throw to again. Good luck against T.J. Watt and this ferocious Steelers defense.

For Pittsburgh, Russell Wilson is finally back at practice, but Mike Tomlin is sticking with Justin Fields for now. How will Fields perform now that Wilson is waiting on the sidelines ready to take his place? We'll find out this week.

Mismatch to exploit: Raiders running game vs. Steelers front seven

The Raiders haven't been able to run the ball all year, and the Steelers rank third in the NFL in yards allowed per rush. Check out Las Vegas' running backs to go under their yardage props.

Prediction: Steelers 16, Raiders 13

Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos

Sunday, Oct. 13, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Chargers -3
Total: 35.5

The Chargers are back in action after a much-needed bye, but Rashawn Slater, Joe Alt and Joey Bosa are all questionable to play. It's tough to bet this game without knowing whether they'll be suiting up.

The Broncos, after losing two ugly games to start the season, have won three straight to improve to 3-2. Box Nix is starting to look much more comfortable in Sean Payton's offense, and the defense continues to play like a top-five unit in the NFL. 

Mismatch to exploit: Patrick Surtain II vs. Quentin Johnston

Surtain has been locking down opposing WR1s all season, and he'll likely take the Johnston matchup to limit the deep passing game.

Prediction: Broncos 13, Chargers 10

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers

Sunday, Oct. 13, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX
Spread: Falcons -6.5
Total: 46.5

The Falcons are coming off a miraculous win against the Buccaneers in which Kirk Cousins threw for more than 500 yards. Atlanta should air it out again against a Panthers defense which ranks dead last in points allowed and 27th in yards allowed per pass.

Andy Dalton and the Panthers came back to earth last week with only 10 points and 292 yards of offense against the Bears. If this offense isn't clicking, Carolina has virtually no chance to compete. 

Mismatch to exploit: Drake London vs. Panthers secondary

London clicked with Cousins last week for 12 catches, 154 yards and a touchdown. The Panthers have gotten torched by WR1s all season, so look for London to find the end zone again.

Prediction: Panthers 23, Falcons 21

Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys

Sunday, Oct. 13, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX
Spread: Lions -3
Total: 52.5

The Cowboys are coming off a last-minute victory against the Steelers, as Jalen Tolbert broke out with seven catches for 87 yards and a touchdown. This will be a much tougher test for a defense missing DeMarcus Lawrence and possibly Micah Parsons and Eric Kendricks.

The Lions, on the other hand, are fully healthy and fresh coming off their bye week. Detroit ranks third in the NFL in yards per game, but the offense has had trouble converting red-zone opportunities into touchdowns. 

Mismatch to exploit: Lions running backs vs. Cowboys front seven

The Lions can run it on anyone, and Dallas has given up seven rushing touchdowns in their last four games. Look for David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs to find the end zone. 

Prediction: Lions 30, Cowboys 24

Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Giants

Sunday, Oct. 13, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Spread: Bengals -3.5
Total: 48.5

This should be a fun one. The Bengals have no choice but to play shootouts and try to outscore their opponents because the defense has been such a sieve. Joe Burrow is clicking with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, but the offense can't afford to make any mistakes.

The Giants are coming off an impressive win against the Seahawks without Malik Nabers and Devin Singletary. Tyrone Tracy filled in and balled out with 129 rushing yards, and Daniel Jones played his best game of the season. New York's defensive line is proving to be one of the best game-wrecking units in the NFL. Are the Giants... good??

Mismatch to exploit: Both offenses vs. both defenses

The Bengals can't stop anyone right now, and Joe Burrow knows how to get the ball out quickly to offset New York's pass rush. Maybe take a look at an alternate over on this one. 

Prediction: Giants 29, Bengals 27

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets

Monday, Oct. 14, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Spread: Bills -2.5
Total: 40.5

The Jets are in the most fascinating spot entering Week 6 after firing head coach Robert Saleh on Tuesday. Defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich will take over as the interim head coach, but he can't do much about Aaron Rodgers playing like the 40-year-old he is.

The Bills looked like Super Bowl contenders through three weeks, but that came crashing down after losses to the Ravens and Texans. Buffalo could struggle to step up in competition, but the Jets aren't on that tier yet. 

Mismatch to exploit: Breece Hall vs. Bills run defense

Hall has been nowhere to be found over the last few weeks, but the Jets need to get him going against a Bills defense which ranks dead last in yards allowed per rush.

Prediction: Jets 23, Bills 20