NFL Week 6 predictions

Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET (NFL Network)

On one hand, it's a shame that this contest is on Thursday night, because two teams who have had very good starts to the season won't have much time to rest and recover. On the other hand, we don't have to wait an extra two days to find out which team will emerge as one of the NFC's best alongside Green Bay. The Eagles have ridden a balanced offense and the hot hand of Carson Wentz to a 4-1 start, while Carolina has been very impressive the past two weeks, eking out big road wins over New England and Detroit. Cam Newton made big plays while taking care of the ball against a turnover-happy Lions defense. If he does that again, look for Carolina to come away with a third-straight close victory. 

Pick: Eagles

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Fresh off a bye week, the Falcons play host to a Dolphins team that tiptoed past the Titans, but is also dealing with a spate of issues. Offensive line coach Chris Foerster resigned from the team after a video showing him snorting a white substance was made public. On the field, the Dolphins have the worst offense in the league, and Jay Cutler's game-winning touchdown pass against Tennessee was but a small victory in the face of heavy criticism from the home fans, who were clamoring for Matt Moore during much of Sunday's game. Atlanta has had plenty of time to lick its wounds after an unexpected loss to Buffalo, and getting Miami at home should be as much a mismatch in practice as it seems on paper.

Pick: Falcons

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

The Vikings survived the Mitch Trubisky Experience, spoiling it with a late interception and game-winning field goal, but it became very clear that Sam Bradford should never have played in the game. Thing of it is, while Bradford is Minnesota's best quarterback, Case Keenum has been very good this year, posting a 97.6 passer rating, and taking good care of the football. He'll need to do that against a Packers team that appears to be getting vintage Aaron Rodgers again this season. Rodgers' touchdown drive to beat Dallas was a work of surgically efficient beauty, executed without Jordy Nelson on the field. Minnesota's defense is very good, but it will need to be great for the Vikes to have a chance.

Pick: Packers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

A surprising stat: through four games, the Saints have yet to turn the ball over a single time. That is of course tops in the league. Detroit is also adept at protecting the football, as well as taking it away. However, the Lions were unable to intercept Cam Newton or recover any fumbles against Carolina, and coughed it up once themselves. Detroit ranks near the bottom of the league in offensive yards, but tenth in points, primarily because their turnovers have created some short fields. New Orleans was atrocious defensively in both losses, but surprisingly stingy in their wins. This game isn't too hard to figure. If the Lions force some turnovers, there is a good chance they win the game, because Matthew Stafford has been very good and very opportunistic this year. If they don't, this one becomes something close to a toss-up. The guess here is that they do, and grab a solid road win in the process.

Pick: Lions

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

If the season ended today, Todd Bowles would warrant legitimate consideration for Coach of the Year. That is hard to type out, let alone fathom, yet here we are, with the Jets somehow tied for the AFC East lead at 3-2. The Patriots still haven't had the kind of performance that puts everyone on notice, barely squeaking by a sloppy Buccaneers team last Thursday. They're due for one, and the Jets are arguably the worst 3-2 team in the entire league. Unless Bilal Powell and Elijah McGuire go crazy on the ground like they did in New York's win over Jacksonville, there is no way to envision the Jets staying close against the Patriots' high-powered offense. Bill Belichick, against a franchise he dislikes, with nearly a week and a half to prepare? I can do that math, and it doesn't add up to anything good for the Jets. 

Pick: Patriots

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

Washington is something of a mystery. They've lost to Philadelphia and Kansas City, two teams a combined 9-1, with the only loss happening when the Chiefs defeated the Eagles. Washington made Oakland look bad, and earned a very solid road win against a Rams team that looks to be pretty good, even at 3-2. Josh Norman is out for the Skins, but that shouldn't be a major issue against San Francisco's mediocre passing attack. The 49ers, for their part, are 0-5, with all but one loss coming by three points or less, and the past two going into overtime. That's definitely a case of some bad luck, but this still isn't a good football team, and certainly not one that can be expected to play an early game on the east coast and come away with a win. Washington wins, but good luck trying to extrapolate anything from it, given the quality of the opponent.

Pick: Redskins

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

Mitch Trubisky's debut brought with it a burst of excitement in the Windy City, followed by a predictably rough first outing for the rookie. Yes, the Bears executed the NFL's prettiest two-point conversion play in some time, but Trubisky's late interception cost the Bears the game. It is unlikely his first road test will go much better, especially against a Ravens team feeling sudden confidence after a win versus Oakland. If the Bears want to walk out of Baltimore as winners, they'll have to lean heavily on Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen against a porous Ravens' run defense. Thing is, they'll also need Trubisky to make some plays in the passing game. He won't. 

Pick: Ravens

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Yes, some of the touchdowns came with his team trailing late, and yes, some of the throws were into heavy traffic, but Deshaun Watson had still had five TD's and zero interceptions against Kansas City, providing the league with a sort of spiritual opposite to Ben Roethlisberger's outing against Jacksonville. In the last 15 years, 50 quarterbacks have thrown for five touchdowns and no picks in a game. Their record in those contests? 46-4. Hard luck for Watson. Fortunately for him and the Texans, also reeling from the loss of J.J. Watt, they get a Browns team that got a splashy debut from Myles Garrett, and an outing from DeShone Kizer so poor it got him benched. Even without Watt, the combination of a talented Texans defense and a road environment will be too much, no matter who Cleveland rolls out at quarterback.

Pick: Texans

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (FOX)

Adrian Peterson was never a good fit in New Orleans, but he may find things more to his liking with Arizona, a team that figures to give him plenty of touches in an effort to boost their anemic running game. The Cards have averaged a paltry 2.6 yards per carry this season, and while their pass offense has put up the most yards in the league, the lack of a running game has been a major contributing factor in their inability to finish off drives. For the Bucs, the main goal will be to stop the pass, something they've not yet done this year. Jameis Winston has been good but not great thus far, and if Carson Palmer finds success against Tampa Bay's secondary, Winston may have to put up a decent point total against Arizona's ball hawks on the back end. 

Pick: Buccaneers

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (FOX)

What a difference a week makes for Jacksonville. Their loss to the Jets made them a punchline all week, and they responded by going into Pittsburgh and punching the Steelers in the mouth. Thing of it is, Leonard Fournette and the defense did most of the punching, with Blake Bortles still mostly ineffective. The Rams have been anything but stout against the run, and Jacksonville's secondary may be the best one Jared Goff has faced this season – including Seattle. Jalen Ramsey may be the best player on either team not named Aaron Donald, and in theory, the Jags' running game and defensive prowess should carry the day at home. On the other hand, these are still the Jaguars. Enough said.

Pick: Rams

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

Before last Sunday, this game loomed as a potential battle for AFC supremacy. The Steelers' stunning loss to Jacksonville, however, has flipped the script. Now the black and gold must find a way to right the ship in a hurry, lest the idea of home field advantage throughout the playoffs become a pipe dream before the halfway point of the season. Kansas City survived another test, responding every time the Texans threatened on the way to a 42-34 victory. Alex Smith is the early favorite for league MVP, Kareem Hunt is the clear choice for Offensive Rookie of the Year at this juncture, and the Chiefs doubtless want some revenge for last year's playoff loss. Oh, and Arrowhead Stadium should be rocking, and Ben Roethlisberger's road numbers are significantly worse than his home stats in recent years. Easy win for Kansas City, right? In theory, yes. But Pittsburgh has a weird habit of winning games like this.

Pick: Steelers

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

Barring a setback later this week, Derek Carr will play for Oakland. That's good news for the Raiders, who are a playoff contender with Carr, and arguably the AFC West's worst team without him. The Raiders' offense has scuffled over the past three weeks, both with and without Carr in the lineup. He will have to help the offense find its form against a San Diego team that squeaked by the Giants to finally claim a win. This game is something of a line in the sand for the Raiders. Either they win, and get back on track in what appears to be a hyper-competitive division, or they continue to slump offensively and fall way off the pace set by Denver and Kansas City. The temptation is to go with Los Angeles, but so long as Carr is healthy, Oakland should get by.

Pick: Raiders

Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET (NBC)

Can things get any worse for New York? Seemingly all their wide receivers are hurt, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie was suspended by the team, and there are plenty of fans and media wondering if Ben McAdoo has lost his team. To recap: the Giants can't run the ball, Eli Manning has no receivers to throw to, defensive leader Landon Collins might not play, and they have to go on the road against a Broncos team that is well-rested after a bye week. Sometimes the NFL can surprise, like when the Jaguars thrashed the Steelers at Heinz Field last Sunday. Most of the time, though, a mismatch on paper proves to be exactly that in practice. This one may get ugly in a hurry.

Pick: Broncos

Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

The formula for this one is simple – if Marcus Mariota plays, the Titans have an excellent chance to grab a road win and keep pace in the muddled AFC South. If he doesn't, Tennessee is in big trouble, because both Matt Cassel and Brandon Weeden are truly poor backup options. Indianapolis might well be the worst 2-3 team in the league, owning only narrow wins over the winless Browns and 49ers. Jacoby Brissett has been average, at best, for a Colts team completely hamstrung by Andrew Luck's absence. The guess here is that Mariota plays, which makes picking a winner a pretty straightforward exercise. 

Pick: Titans