NFL Week 7 'Beat the Line' moves

Week 6 of the 2023 NFL season isn't over just yet, but it's never too early to get in some early bets for the following week. In our season-long quest to create closing line value and beat the books, we've been successful at both through 18 picks. Let's keep it rolling with my three early bets for Week 7. 

2023 record: 9-5-4 CLV, 11-6-1 ATS

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New Orleans Saints

If you haven't been riding the Saints under train to start the season, you've been missing out on a ton of cash. New Orleans has played six games this season, and all six of them have gone under the total with an average of 34.2 points per game. 

Derek Carr clearly isn't healthy, and he wasn't too effective even before he suffered his shoulder injury. But this handicap is mostly focused on Jacksonville's quarterback situation. Trevor Lawrence suffered a knee injury against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 6, and he may not be able to suit up on Thursday night with limited time to recover.

We're getting this bet in before Lawrence is potentially ruled out, and if he doesn't play, this total should close in the mid-30s. 

The bet to make: Under 39 (-110 DraftKings)

Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts

A second under in a dome with a total less than 40? Sure, why not?

The Browns defense has been exceptional all season. Cleveland ranks No. 1 in the NFL in opponent yards per play (3.8), opponent passing yards per game (121.4) and opponent third-down conversion percentage (23.08 percent). Now the best defensive unit in the league gets to feast on Gardner Minshew, who just threw three interceptions against the Jaguars in Week 6.