NFL Week 9 betting guide

We've got six teams on bye this week, leaving with us a bit less football than usual. We view this from a glass half-full mentality. It gives us the opportunity to put more attention on each individual game and matchup.

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets

Spread: Buffalo -11.5
Total: 46 points

The Bills have won five straight games against the Jets, who crashed back to Earth this past weekend in a 22-17 loss to New England. The Bills are as legitimate as 6-1 teams come, and there's an argument this is the worst quarterback they've faced this season. We're backing Buffalo despite the massive spread on the road.

Betting: Bills -11.5

Miami Dolphins @ Chicago Bears

Spread: Miami -4
Total: 45.5 points

Chicago sold off its top defensive assets in the past two weeks, a good long-term move that is going to hurt them this year. The Bears defense ranks 30th on PFF coming into Week 9. How is the loss of Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith going to impact that, you think? The Dolphins should blow by this team with everyone back and rolling. The new addition of Bradley Chubb should help lift what is already an above-average Miami pass rush against a vulnerable Chicago offensive line.

Betting: Dolphins -4

Minnesota Vikings @ Washington Commanders

Spread: Minnesota -3
Total: 43.5 points

Kirk Cousins revenge game? Hard to exactly bill it as such, but we'd still expect to see some extra motivation from Cousins and the 6-1 Vikings this weekend. Kirk beat his old team by 10 when he last saw them, and Minnesota is the clearly better team on both ends. With TJ Hockenson in the fold, the Vikings passing game should be going full throttle against a very vulnerable Commanders secondary.

Betting: Vikings +3

Carolina Panthers @ Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: Cincinnati -7.5
Total: 42.5 points

Joe Mixon saw a big uptick in targets last week in the first Bengals game without Ja'Marr Chase. Mixon saw nine targets and seven receptions, both of which tied a season-high from Week 1. Carolina has done a solid job stifling the run, which should open up the Cincy offense to more dump offs and screens for Mixon. The Bengals RB has gone over his receiving yardage line in three straight and four of the last six without Chase playing.

Betting: Joe Mixon over 22.5 receiving yards (-110 DK)

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions

Spread: Green Bay -3.5
Total: 49.5 points

This would be a good game for Aaron Rodgers to hand the ball off. The Lions are allowing the third-most rushing yards per game and the second-most touchdowns to RBs. Consider building some parlays around Aaron Jones or AJ Dillon to have a big game. Which one? Jones is getting the more consistent carries and has gone for 100+ yards three times this season.

Betting: Aaron Jones over 64.5 rushing yards (-120 DK)

Los Angeles Chargers @ Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Los Angeles -3
Total: 49.5 points

We're liking some points here on the Atlanta turf on Sunday. Both teams have touchdown vulnerabilities which should allow each offense to grab their points, and both teams are hitting their over more often than not. Take the points and consider loading up Josh Palmer to have a big game here.

Betting: Over 49.5 points

Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots

Spread: New England -5
Total: 40.5 points

You might be surprised to know that New England's defense has been one of the most vulnerable to big passing plays this year. The Patriots have seen 31 passes of 20+ yards completed against them, the third-highest mark in the NFL. Keep your eye on Alec Pierce's yardage prop. At time of writing, it's not yet released, but he's gone for 60+ in four of six starts this season and is Indy's vertical option. In the meantime, we'll flag his TD odds, but know that yards are the move here.

Betting: Alec Pierce TD (+325 DK)

Las Vegas Raiders @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Las Vegas -1.5
Total: 48 points

That was an ugly performance by both teams here in Week 8, setting up a game that many aren't likely to watch. That makes us think this is the exact type of game that will see fireworks on both ends. We're opting to ride that belief by backing a big game out of Trevor Lawrence. The Raiders are allowing the seventh-most passing yards per game, have the second-worst sack rate, and are allowing the second-best completion rate. Give us a big Lawrence game.

Betting: Trevor Lawrence over 245.5 passing yards (-106 CZR)

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals

Spread: Arizona -2
Total: 49.5 points

This Seattle team has been fun to watch! Yes, their secondary tends to let up some big plays through the air, but how can you not get excited about what Geno Smith and Kenneth Walker are cooking up together? We'll gladly take the points for the NFC West-leading Seahawks.

Betting: Seahawks +2

Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: Tampa Bay -3
Total: 42.5 points

What was once considered two of the NFC favorites this year, this game now projects to be ugly and low-scoring. Both the Rams and Bucs have severely underperformed, and we'd bank on the under hitting here. We'll also grab Tampa Bay at home. That Los Angeles offensive line is a serious liability that will continue limiting their offense. The Bucs should win this one.

Betting: Buccaneers -3

Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Kansas City -12.5
Total: 45 points

We like points in this one. Both teams have really struggled slowing down receivers, but the x-factor is the health of Ryan Tannehill. He seems optimistic he'll return this week, but he hasn't yet practiced. Keep your eye on that, but some scoring feels likely here in Kansas City.

Betting: Over 45 points

Baltimore Ravens @ New Orleans Saints

Spread: Baltimore -2.5
Total: 48 points

Not many teams are stingier to tight ends than New Orleans, who are allowing just 3.6 catches and 30.5 yards per game to the position. With Rashod Bateman out for the year, the Saints defense should be able to hone in on limiting Mark Andrews and slowing down this Ravens offense.

Betting: New Orleans +2.5