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NFL Wild Card Weekend bets: Steelers vs. Chiefs
The final game of Sunday's slate will be the #2 Chiefs hosting the #7 Steelers. This is the largest spread of the weekend, which actually may help us when projecting the game script.
We've got one bet ready to go in this game, a Same Game Parlay on DraftKings.
Steelers vs Chiefs
As we set the scene for the bet in this one, we start with the Chiefs running game, a solid target tonight.
Pittsburgh allows the second-most rushing yards per game to running backs and have one of the worst run defenses in both DVOA rankings and PFF grades.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is out, which should suggest a bigger workload for Darrel Williams (current over/under is 56.5 yards).
The game script would indicate plenty of Kansas City runs in the second half.
Now to the Pittsburgh side. As you can see from the tweet below, they've been a high-volume passing offense this season, turning it on more to wrap the regular season.
The Steelers have averaged 44.3 passes per game in their L3, the most in the NFL
— GriffyBets (@griffybets) January 16, 2022
The Chiefs see the 10th-most attempts against them
As 12.5-point dogs, the game script is certainly there for passing props pic.twitter.com/DGOrM5FoAr
It's been a struggle to find just one spot to target in this offense, weighing Big Ben's passing attempts or one of his pass-catchers to hit their receptions over.
Instead, we combine a few into a SGP for the night's action.
+105 SGP on DraftKings
- Darrel Williams over 39.5 rushing yards
- Diontae Johnson 4+ receptions
- Pat Freiermuth 2+ receptions
- Ben Roethlisberger 35+ pass attempts
We take a few of the lower options available to us on DraftKings and combine them in this parlay.
Without CEH this season, Williams goes over 39.5 yards in 5 of 7 games, and Pittsburgh allows 120.71 rushing yards per game to RBs.
Both Johnson and Freiermuth have reached this reception total in 12 straight games.
Then it's Big Ben, who has 35+ attempts in six of his last eight games, and five straight on the road.
This is very game-script focused. The Chiefs should go up early and begin running against a poor Steelers defense. Pittsburgh should be forced to become one-dimensional while playing catch up, allowing our volume props to hit.
At +105, I think this is solid value and the best option in this game.
Good luck tonight! Stay tuned to Yardbarker for our Monday night bets between the Cardinals and Rams.
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