According to the oddsmakers, this is the most lopsided matchup of Super Wild Card Weekend. There is no argument here as on one side you have the Kansas City Chiefs, AFC respresentatives in the last two Super Bowls, and on the other, Pittsburgh, a team that tied Detroit.
Pittsburgh does have experience where it matters most (QB and coach), but they rarely played at a high level during the season. Even in their wins, they seemed to more be hanging on than dominating. Only once did they beat an opponent by more than eight points this season.
Kansas City had its struggles early in the season, but eventually they found their level. Whether they are the best team in the league can be debated, but I think they have the highest ceiling. They are looking to win it all after coming close last season, so they should be well motivated too. They just have not get caught looking too far ahead.
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7-1) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)
Sunday January 16, 2022
8:15 PM ET
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Betting Odds (as fo Friday January 14th)
Spread: Steelers +13 (-115), Chiefs -13 (-105)
Moneyline: Steelers +460, Chiefs -579
Bets I Like
Bet Roethlisberger Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+158)
I am expecting the Chiefs to be in control of this game and that means the Steelers are going to have to be aggressive to make it competitive. Big Ben is not going to be intimidated by the environment and he should be able to get the Steelers into the end zone a couple of times. Pittsburgh only had 10 rushing TDs all season long so scoring, through, so through the air is most likely.
Chase Claypool 50+ Receiving Yards (+136)
To beat K.C., you have to take some shots and see if you can make big plays like they do. Claypool is their best option with his size and speed and they are going to use him to try and sotfen up the defense. Also, once they get down they will probaby be throwing it about 80% of the time. His total was pretty solid but the value is even better at this yardage threshold.
Kansas City to Win, Have the Most Rushing and the Most Receiving Yards (+160)
I think Kansas City is going to be in control of this game from the get go. The Moneyline made no sense at that price, and it is hard to back a double-digit favorite in the playoffs, even in an obvious mismatch. I like this combo prop a lot. Neither team is likely to rush for much and K.C. can gain some yards and churn some clock late. The only worry is garbage passing yards from the Steelers, but it is still worth it. Kansas City is less conservative than most teams.