NFL.com States Case For, Against Packers in NFC North

The NFC North is loaded. The Green Bay Packers won 11 games last season and weren’t even close to contending for a division title. In fact, they went 1-5 against their NFC North rivals and 10-1 against everyone else.

The best division in NFL history last season might be even more competitive this year.

“You can legitimately make a case for or against each of the four clubs winning the division with a straight face,” NFL.com’s Kevin Patra wrote in examining the “case for/against” each team earning the NFC North championship.

The Detroit Lions, who finished 15-2 last season, are the two-time defending division champions. While they lost their offensive and defensive coordinators, a defensive roster that was ransacked by injuries is healthy again. Their roster has nothing even resembling a weakness.

While Ben Johnson is coaching the rival Bears and Aaron Glenn is coaching the Jets, “Not enough attention is on the coach who remains: Dan Campbell,” Patra wrote. “This is the season that the man in charge can prove his program can withstand attrition.” 

The Minnesota Vikings, who finished 14-3 and had a chance to win the North in Week 18, opted to move on from quarterback Sam Darnold and hand the baton to J.J. McCarthy. Perhaps no first-year starting quarterback has been handed a better supporting cast. Plus, the trenches on both sides of the ball were addressed in free agency.

Coach Kevin “O’Connell's ability to get the most out of his talent at the most difficult position in sports, regardless of who is under center, provides confidence that the Vikings can overcome McCarthy's greenhorn status,” Petra wrote.

The Packers, who finished 11-6, gave quarterback Jordan Love two flashy weapons with Matthew Golden in the first round and Savion Williams in the third round. GM Brian Gutekunst, who has an impeccable track record in high-stakes free agency, addressed needs on the offensive line and secondary with Aaron Banks and Nate Hobbs.

The key to making it work will be Love, who was a mixed bag of big plays but key mistakes during an injury-plagued second season as the starter.

“The narrative surrounding Jordan Love has devolved to the point that he's had to defend himself this offseason,” Petra wrote. “Playing injured for much of the season, Love's metrics, particularly on early downs, were comparable to that of top-tier signal-callers. The QB was also the victim of 23 dropped passes, per Next Gen Stats (fifth-most in the NFL). It's not hyperbole to suggest that if his wideouts had not flubbed a few balls in big spots, both Love's counting statistics and the Packers' record would look different.”

The Chicago Bears, who started 4-2 before finishing 5-12, have done everything possible to help quarterback Caleb Williams, including a new head coach (former Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson), a new interior offensive line (veteran additions Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman and Jonah Williams) and more weapons (tight end Colston Loveland in the first round and receiver Luther Burden in the second round).

“Ben Johnson's arrival is the No. 1 reason the Bears could flip the script from worst to first in the NFC North,” Petra wrote. “As a play-caller in Detroit, Johnson had defenses petrified.”

The rosters are loaded but there are key questions.

For Detroit, it’s the brain drain at coordinator. For Minnesota, it’s the great unknown that is McCarthy. For Chicago, Williams’ ability to run himself into sacks was a major problem.

For Green Bay, it’s the worst-case scenario of losing defensive tackle T.J. Slaton hurting the run defense and, as a byproduct, putting the cornerbacks in challenging spots against the elite quarterbacks and receivers on the schedule.

“If (Jeff) Hafley's defense devolves into what it was before his arrival, the Packers could struggle to keep pace with the offenses in the division,” Patra said. “The lack of a persistent pass rush is one issue, but an inability to consistently slow the run could be a killer. Green Bay might also be counting on Keisean Nixon to play at a CB1 level after parting with Jaire Alexander.”

In NFC North betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, only the NFC West has a tighter spread between first place and last place. In the NFC North, Detroit is +145, Green Bay is +260, Minnesota is +290 and Green Bay is +550. In the NFC West, San Francisco is +155, Los Angeles is +190, Arizona is +400 and Seattle is +550. Even with the longest odds, Bears’ over/under is 8.5 wins.