Odds Lions Beat Browns in Week 4

The Detroit Lions, coming off their biggest win of the early season, return home Sunday to face another AFC North foe: the Cleveland Browns. 

Detroit recorded a statement win in Week 3, going on the road and defeating the Baltimore Ravens in convincing fashion, 38-30. Aidan Hutchinson and his counterparts sacked Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson seven times, and Jared Goff and the offense controlled the time of possession and totaled 400-plus yards of offense for a second straight week.

Meanwhile, the Browns (1-2) shocked the Green Bay Packers a week ago, triumphing over Jordan Love and the Packers, 13-10. It marked the third straight week in which Cleveland's defense, led by former Lions head coach Jim Schwartz, limited its opponent to less than 250 yards of total offense.

As a result of the stout defensive showing, the Browns rank No. 1 in yards allowed (613). Also, Cleveland's defense ranks first in overall Pro Football Focus grade (88.0).

One of the biggest reasons for the Browns’ defensive success has been the continued high-level play of All-Pro EDGE Myles Garrett. 

Among qualified EDGE defenders, Garrett ranks second in overall PFF grade (91.4), second in PFF run-defense grade (87.3), first in PFF pass-rushing grade (92.0) and second in pass-rush win rate (29.3 percent).

Additionally, defensive tackle Maliek Collins is enjoying a hot start to the season with a 90.8 overall PFF grade, leading qualified interior defenders with a PFF pass-rush mark of 91.5 and a pass-rush win rate of 23.6 percent.

Plus, undrafted free agent Adin Huntington has amassed two pressures on 21 pass-rushing snaps, while rookie Mason Graham, the No. 5 overall pick in this past April's NFL Draft, has generated six pressures. Collectively, Cleveland’s defensive line ranks No. 1 in PFF's pass-rushing grade and pass-rush win rate thus far this season.

Linebackers Carson Schwesinger, who ranks second among all qualified defensive rookies with an 81.6 overall PFF grade, and Devin Bush, who has recorded an 88.2 overall PFF grade, have also had strong starts to the 2025 campaign.

Cleveland's offense, meanwhile, hasn't enjoyed nearly the same level of success through the first three weeks of the season. The Browns rank 30th in the league in points (15.3/game), and they haven't scored more than 17 in any one game. 

Part of the offensive woes can be attributed to the team's lackluster quarterback play. 

Through three games, veteran signal-caller Joe Flacco has thrown for more interceptions (four) than touchdowns (two), and has recorded a measly 37.5 QBR. It's the fifth-lowest QBR among 32 qualified passers. 

With Flacco under center, Cleveland is also averaging just 4.5 yards per pass attempt, the second-lowest mark in the league.

It's become crystal clear that the Browns’ offense is holding back Kevin Stefanski's team. And I could see Flacco & Co. struggling again against Kelvin Sheppard's unit in this Week 4 affair.

At this present juncture, I'll give the Lions an 82 percent chance to improve to 2-0 this season at Ford Field.

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