Odds Lions Beat Giants Week 12

The Detroit Lions, after playing on the road two straight weeks, return home Sunday to face the N.Y. Giants. Kickoff for the Week 12 contest is set for 1 p.m. at Ford Field. It's the first of three consecutive home games for Dan Campbell's squad.

Detroit, which now sits in third place in the NFC North (6-4) and on the outside looking in for the playoffs, is coming off an ugly 16-9 defeat at the hands of the reigning Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. Meanwhile, the Giants, which have lost five in a row and sit dead last in the NFC East (2-9), are coming off a 27-20 loss to the Green Bay Packers.

New York, which is now led by interim coach Mike Kafka, fired its head man Brian Daboll after a 2-8 start to the season. Daboll went 20-40-1, and made one postseason appearance (and won one playoff game) in parts of four seasons with the Giants.

On Sunday, the G-Men will also be without rookie running back Cam Skattebo – a fan favorite of the Giants faithful – who suffered a season-ending ankle injury in a Week 8 loss to the Eagles.

In positive news on the injury front, though, rookie phenom Jaxon Dart, who sat out last week against Green Bay with a concussion, is expected to be back under center against Detroit.

Through nine games, the first-year passer has completed 62.7 percent of his passes for 10 touchdowns and 1,417 yards. He's also thrown just three interceptions. 

Additionally, the Ole Miss product has added another 317 yards and seven touchdowns with his legs.

The dual-threat quarterback has a chance to give Detroit defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard's unit fits on Sunday. 

As for the Lions, they had two of their key offensive linemen – Taylor Decker (shoulder) and Penei Sewell (ankle) – and three of their starting defensive backs – Terrion Arnold (concussion), Brian Branch (toe) and Kerby Joseph (knee) – listed as non-practice participants on their estimated injury report Wednesday.

Additionally, fellow starting linemen Tate Ratledge and Graham Glasgow – both of whom suffered knee injuries in Week 11 – were listed as limited practice participants on the initial injury report.

Detroit is already down one offensive lineman due to injury (left guard Christian Mahogany), and can ill-afford to lose any others moving forward.   

Meanwhile, the Lions will be without Pro Bowl tight end Sam LaPorta (back) for a second straight week. LaPorta, a security blanket of Detroit quarterback Jared Goff, was placed on injured reserve prior to the team's Week 11 contest in Philadelphia. 

Goff and the offense struggled mightily without LaPorta a week ago. So, it'll be interesting to see if the Lions are better equipped to handle life without LaPorta in their Week 12 matchup with the Giants.

Detroit very well could be, especially against a Giants defense that has allowed the fourth-most points per game this season (27.3). 

This could also be a prime opportunity for the Lions to bounce back from their dismal effort on the ground last week against the Eagles. Detroit, led by Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, managed to rush for just 74 yards on 21 carries (3.5 yards per attempt).

New York, meanwhile, has permitted the third-most yards (1,649) and third-most touchdowns on the ground (15) through 11 weeks. Thus, the stage is set for the Lions to reestablish their status as one of the league's best run games.

I believe Detroit will do just that and avoid dropping two consecutive games for the first time since Weeks 7 and 8 of the 2022 season.

At this present juncture, I'll give the Lions, despite all their injuries, a 75 percent chance to capture the Week 12 victory.