One-On-One: Pressure ratcheted up most for these NFL rookie head coaches

Tunison: I agree that, of the 2019 rookie NFL head coaches, Kingsbury has put the biggest target on himself. Right off the bat, he replaced a head coach, Steve Wilks, who got too little a chance, then drafted a quarterback first overall to replace the first-round QB from the year before. He comes with massive hype and a bit of swagger, which none of the other debuting head coaches really do. 

But here's the thing: We've seen this before, and we know there's a cushy college coaching job waiting as a refuge if Kingsbury falters. Lane Kiffin has shown us the way and never looked back after his NFL meltdown with the Raiders. That Nick Saban failed in the NFL in Miami is something few genuinely hold against him now. Heck, given how insecure the average hardcore college football fan is about the NFL, Saban failing in the pros confirms to them that something is fundamentally wrong with the league.

So Kingbury can fail spectacularly in Arizona, and sure it'll be a little embarrassing for a bit, but he has his former life and most likely an even more prestigious program waiting for him when he's ready to go back to the college level. There's plenty of precedent for this.

Meanwhile, I think the lasting aggravation is risked by Matt LaFleur, who coordinated the 25th-ranked offense for the Titans last season. Unlike Kingsbury, he didn't get the rapid promotion based on flashy if not particularly successful teams. LaFleur has been toiling away in assistant jobs on NFL teams, save for one year as Notre Dame's quarterbacks coach, since 2008. He assumes leadership of a team with a demanding fan base and replaces a coach for whom consistent success was not enough. Oh, and there are questions about how much the team's superstar quarterback is even willing to defer to any head coach, let along one on his first year in the position.

Mike McCarthy's highlight reel of questionable decision-making in critical moments make him an easy punchline, but he (well, he and Aaron Rodgers) established the Packers as a team that should be contending every year. That isn't going to change just because LaFleur is in the limelight for the first time. Green Bay fans aren't going to be all that satisfied with an end to a two-year postseason hiatus if it just means another 10-6 campaign followed by an early playoff exit. LaFleur is going to have to demonstrate early that is was the right move for Green Bay to have finally broken with McCarthy.

If LaFleur can't hack it, I doubt he'll become a professional pariah, but I don't think he'll be allowed to still sort of fail up in the way Kingsbury will. He might very well get a chance to be an offensive coordinator for another NFL team, but in terms of authority, prestige and money, that likely pales in comparison to all the college programs that will gladly be the next sap for Kingsbury after his fling in the pros is done.

Mueller:  Hard to disagree with your assessment of either guy, though I will quibble with the idea that the Saban and Bobby Petrino got off scot-free in the court of public opinion for their failures. OK, actually that part might be true, too, but I rip both guys for being terrible quitters in the NFL every chance I get.

I do wonder whether Kingsbury’s losing record will be held against him by potential college suitors, should he flame out in the NFL. When Saban came back to the warm embrace of the college game, he did so with a reputation that included a BCS National Championship at LSU, and the complete absence of any losing seasons. His 6-10 campaign with the Dolphins in 2006 remains his only losing season as a head coach in college or the pros.

Every new head coach wants to make a name for himself, not only for ego’s sake, but also for what comes with success -- money, fame, respect, and the rest of the usual trappings. So what situation is better? Being the guy who tries to tweak things with Rodgers is the easier route, but if it does go well in Green Bay, some might be inclined to say that it isn’t LaFleur’s presence so much as it is the lack of McCarthy’s. Kingsbury must nurture a successful career for Murray from scratch, and while that’s a more challenging proposition, he’ll be the darling of the coaching world if he succeeds, and everything good that happens will be directly attributable to him.

Pressure? Yes. The payoff would be worth it, though.

Tunison: It's true Saban's and Kingsbury's resumes wouldn't be identical if Kingsbury flamed out and returned to the college game with his tail between his legs, but absent a failure that is marked by the kind of scandal that gets one shunned on a professional level, he should have a fair amount of suitors regardless. It may not be an SEC school, but likely something better than he would deserve based on what he's done.

In terms of how much this can benefit LaFleur, just look at Jon Gruden. Sure, the more punchy among us will point out he won that Super Bowl with the Bucs only after assuming control of a team that Tony Dungy built and guided to consistent, if not the ultimate success. But who cares? Badmouth him all you want, he's reaped all the benefits from that title, somehow holding the reputation of the coach of a generation and becoming the highest paid in the sport after sitting out for a decade. Some of that is his magnetic personality, but that only gets you so far without the hardware.

If LaFleur botches it, though, the floor can get pretty low. Sure, there are those like Rod Marinelli (see Detroit Lions) who had terrible stints as head coach and then perfectly respectable and remunerative careers as top assistants. But then there are always the Rich Kotites -- the career assistants whose trip to the limelight was so traumatic, it was all over from there.