Overreaction Tuesday: Should the Falcons extend Kyle Pitts?

In the absence of Drake London, tight end Kyle Pitts has taken full advantage of the opportunity to serve as the Falcons’ top receiving option. That role culminated in a career night on Thursday Night Football, when the former fourth overall pick hauled in 11 passes for 166 yards and three touchdowns.

The breakout performance was enough to land Pitts in ESPN’s Week 15 overreactions column, where the question was posed: will Kyle Pitts get big money this offseason?

“The Falcons’ season is going nowhere, but Atlanta opened Week 15 with an impressive Thursday night victory that did some serious harm to the Buccaneers’ aspirations. In that game, backup quarterback Kirk Cousins locked in on Pitts, the uber-talented tight end who hasn’t lived up to the expectations that came with being the No. 4 pick in the 2021 NFL draft.

But Pitts is playing out a contract year and caught 11 passes for 166 yards and three touchdowns Thursday, looking like the unstoppable force he was at the University of Florida. With only three games left before he’s eligible for unrestricted free agency, the timing could not have been better.”

To be clear, while the 166-yard, three-touchdown performance on national television woke up much of the country to a seemingly revitalized Kyle Pitts, this didn’t come out of nowhere. Over his last three games with Drake London sidelined and Kirk Cousins under center, Pitts is averaging 112.7 receiving yards per game, recording at least 82 yards in each contest.

This is the player the Falcons envisioned when they made him the highest-drafted tight end in NFL history, and it’s the version they briefly saw during his rookie season with Matt Ryan at quarterback — a walking mismatch who is a nightmare for opposing defenses to account for.

However, ESPN’s Dan Graziano still believes it’s unlikely Pitts will command a massive contract in free agency this offseason.

“I guess it’s always possible some team decides it must have Pitts and throws him top tight end money. At the moment, the highest-paid tight ends are the 49ers’ George Kittle and the Cardinals’ Trey McBride, each around $19 million per year. Even at his best, Pitts has never been that kind of player. He has never been consistently reliable as a blocker, and he hasn’t produced enough as a receiver to justify a huge-money free agent contract.

Again, he might be the apple of some GM’s eye, and maybe I’ll look silly. But even if he finishes with a monster final month, I think the first 4½ seasons will play some role in keeping him away from the very top of the tight end market.”

I’m firmly in the same camp as Graziano. Handing Kyle Pitts a $50+ million contract this offseason after a mostly pedestrian four-year stretch, highlighted by a handful of breakout games, would be nothing short of foolish. He has to show far more consistency before he’s deserving of a lucrative multi-year deal.

That said, it doesn’t mean the Falcons should let him walk for nothing. Atlanta invested heavily in Pitts when they selected him fourth overall, and one of the most attractive aspects of his profile coming out of college was his age. He’s already been in the league five seasons and just turned 25. It’s entirely possible Pitts’ best football is still ahead of him, which is why the Falcons should see this through for one more year, placing the franchise tag on him this offseason and determining whether this late-season surge is sustainable.

Players are rarely fond of being tagged, and Pitts won’t be any different. But in this case, the Falcons have to protect themselves. Even with the strong finish, Pitts simply hasn’t shown enough over a full body of work to justify a massive long-term commitment. The franchise tag makes sense for both sides, whether he likes it or not.