Packers defense actually got worse in one metric, but the silver lining is it points to a positive trend the rest of the year

The Green Bay Packers' defense is better than it was last year on a down-to-down basis. Generating more pressure with four rushers and being more effective overall, it's a unit that feels more sustainable compared to Jeff Hafley's first year as a coordinator.

However, there is one hugely impactful aspect that has been lacking—and it was in part why the team gave up 40 points to the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday. The turnovers.

"I think there's been a couple more out there for us that we haven't quite capitalized on," head coach Matt LaFleur said earlier this week. "A lot of times they come in bunches, and credit to the teams we've played, they've done a nice job of not allowing us to get a bunch of takeaways. Our offense has done a fairly decent job of not giving the ball away. It just hasn't rolled our way up to this point. Now, we're going to continue to emphasize it and continue to work on it, and I do think it's a matter of time before we get a couple to go our way."

Key Packers' defensive efficiency stats

• EPA/play with turnovers: 15th
• EPA/play without turnovers: 7th
• EPA/dropback with turnovers: 14th
• EPA/dropback without turnovers: 6th
  

Volatile natural of turnovers

In 2024, a talking point around the Packers' defense was how sustainable the quality of the unit would be without the takeaways. Because it doesn't matter how much a coaching staff stresses and prioritizes turnovers, they are volatile by nature.

Last season, the Packers were fourth in EPA/play and 21st in success rate. That combination of stats means the unit wasn't as effective on a down-to-down basis, but compensated for that by generating explosive and more valuable plays.

This year, the Packers are ninth in success rate, but fell to 15th in EPA/play. The lack of interceptions and fumbles compared to last season is evident.

The Packers were sixth with 1.7 takeaways per game in 2024, and through four weeks they are tied for 26th, with half a takeaway per game. And one of them was an arm punt by Joe Flacco and intercepted by Xavier McKinney on fourth down, where it would have been more efficient to battle the ball down.

How to solve it

The Packers will never change how turnovers work, because that's just the essence of football. But that doesn't preclude Hafley from prioritizing that during practice to improve the odds.

"That’s life, right?” Halfley said earlier this season. “You’re process-driven and I know you’re all looking at me like that’s coach-speak, but you put in a lot of work and you do it over and over and over again, and you emphasize it, and you coach it. And if it falls up short, you don’t give up on it and you don’t feel like, 'Man, we are never gonna get these.'"

After the bye week, the Packers play the Cincinnati Bengals at Lambeau Field, and the Bengals are tied for worst in the entire NFL with two giveaways per game. The bad news is that one of the other teams tied for worst is the Cleveland Browns, who had just that Flacco turnover versus the Packers, but the good news is that Green Bay will have a new opportunity against a mistake-prone opponent to finally get over the hump in this area.

If a unit is good in sustainable things and bad in unsustainable things, chances are that the bad will get neutralized, and the best level of performance will eventually arrive.