Packers’ Defense Projected to Take Large Step Backward

Jeff Hafley’s defense took the league by storm last season. For years, the Green Bay Packers’ defense was touted as a whole that was less than the sum of its various first-round picks.

Not last year.

The Packers finished sixth with 19.9 points allowed per game. They were fifth in total defense, third in yards allowed per rushing play, 11th in yards allowed per passing play and fourth in takeaways. They did it with an inconsistent pass rush and the disappearance of cornerback Jaire Alexander.

At NFL.com, Gennaro Filice projected the top 10 defenses for the upcoming season. His rankings are based on points allowed by the defense – not just points allowed, which incorporates calamities like pick-sixes or special-teams touchdowns. By that measurement, Green Bay finished fourth last season with 18.7 points allowed per game.

How about 2025?

Filice projects the Packers falling all the way out of the top 10.

For double trouble, the Packers will play several of his projected top defenses.

Denver is No. 1 in his rankings. The Packers will visit the Broncos in Week 15. Denver went from No. 27 to No. 3 in points allowed last year and added even more firepower.

“This looks like the best Denver D since the ‘No Fly Zone’ gave the franchise its third Lombardi Trophy a decade ago,” Filice wrote as part of lengthy analyses of every team in his rankings.

Philadelphia is No. 2. The Eagles, who beat the Packers twice last year, will play in Green Bay in Week 10. They lost a lot of firepower in free agency with defensive tackle Milton Williams, pass rusher Josh Sweat, cornerback Darius Slay and safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson. But general manager Howie Roseman “has hoarded enough talent to achieve a smooth transition.”

Baltimore is No. 3. The Ravens, who finished first in the NFL in points allowed during the second half of last season, will come to town in Week 17 with a familiar face at cornerback.

“GM Eric DeCosta also fortified the cornerback position, taking a worthwhile gamble on injury-riddled former Pro Bowler Jaire Alexander and signing Chidobe Awuzie as veteran depth,” Filice wrote.

Detroit is No. 6. The Packers will host the Lions in Week 1 and visit Detroit on Thanksgiving. New Lions defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard inherited a deep group that features a “strong spine” against the run, Aidan Hutchinson to rush the passer and the “best safety duo” in the league with Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch.

Minnesota is No. 8. The Vikings will visit Lambeau Field in Week 12 and host the Packers in the finale. The Vikings picked off Love three times in Round 1 last year and limited him to 185 passing yards in the rematch.

Wrote Filice: “Mad scientist coordinator Brian Flores has all the components he needs to scramble the brains of opposing quarterbacks. Constant chaos is a must, though, because this unit looks quite suspect from a pure coverage perspective.”

Pittsburgh is No. 10. The Steelers will host the Packers in Week 8. Along with Pittsburgh’s formidable front, it upgraded at cornerback by trading for Jalen Ramsey and signing Darius Slay.

That’s eight games against this projected top-10 list.

As for the Packers, a step backward is possible. Last year’s hot-and-cold pass rush wasn’t addressed in a meaningful way; it’s probably too much to ask of fourth-round pick Barryn Sorrell and fifth-round pick Collin Oliver to be X-factors. At least they signed cornerback Nate Hobbs to help replace Alexander.

The big question is whether the experience gained in Year 1 will mean a step forward in Year 2, or if opposing offenses will have a better handle on what Hafley wants to do.

For the defense to take a step forward will require linebacker Edgerrin Cooper to emerge as a true star and veteran defensive linemen Rashan Gary and Kenny Clark to have bounce-back seasons.

“Expectations? In a perfect world you want to get back to where you left off as fast as possible and build from there, so how fast can we do that?” Hafley said before OTAs. “We have guys who have played in the system, we have some new pieces we need to add, we need to evolve, we can’t just do the same thing and say here’s the playbook and this is what we’re running. No. We’re a different team. It’s a different year. Offenses are going to evolve; we have to evolve.”