Packers face tricky call with rookie offensive lineman over one number that could lead to missed time this season

Total value and guarantees

Since 2011, there's been a rookie-scale contract model. So the total value and timeframe of the deals are predetermined and not subject to significant changes. But that doesn't mean there isn't room for negotiations. Guarantees and general terms (like offsets) are still on the table.

Over the years, the total value of rookie contracts increases based on the salary cap, but guarantees also tend to increase.

To make this exercise more logical for the Packers, let's talk about the past two 54th overall picks. In 2023, Los Angeles Chargers linebacker Tuli Tuipulotu signed a four-year, $6.571 million contract, and 55.5% of that was fully guaranteed at signing. Last year, the Cleveland Browns gave defensive tackle Michael Hall Jr. a four-year, $7.069 million, with 61.9% in guarantees. That's 6.4% in percentage points, but 20.9% in actual guarantees.

But let's work with the percentage points here, because they can base our idea more easily. A normal flow would indicate that Belton's guarantee would be 68.3% of his rookie contract.

Anthony Belton's numbers

Based on the rookie scale, Belton will eventually sign a four-year, $8.01 million deal with the Packers. If the guarantees are 68.3% of it, that's $5.47 million. So, the Packers are fighting for $2.54 million—not in total value, but in terms of guarantees, which is basically the final two years of the contract.

The team has to decide if that's worth it. Sure, nobody wants to set a bad precedent to give up more guarantees than the standard, especially because it will affect the entire rookie market for years to come. At the same time, nobody expects that Belton won't complete at least his rookie deal in Green Bay—and if he doesn't, the issues will go well beyond these $2.54 million on the cap sheet.