Lukas Van Ness is following a similar path that Rashan Gary first went through four years earlier. The Green Bay Packers took Gary with the 12th overall pick in 2019, and Van Ness with the 13th this year. Both were physical, raw edge rushers, and the Packers had two established veteran starters ahead of them.
In fact, the situation got even more similar during the season. In 2019, Gary ended up as the fourth edge rusher in the rotation. He was behind Za'Darius Smith and Preston Smith, but also had fewer snaps than Kyler Fackrell.
This year, Van Ness is also the fourth edge rusher. Gary, Preston Smith, and second-year player Kingsley Enagbare have had more snaps than the rookie.
Za'Darius Smith 83.85%
Preston Smith 83.65%
Kyler Fackrell 39.9%
Rashan Gary 23.46%
Preston Smith 66.04%
Rashan Gary 51.29%
Kingsley Enagbare 41.09%
Lukas Van Ness 33.07%
Van Ness has had a higher percentage of the defensive snaps, mostly because the Packers have been more proactive to rotate their edge players. The Smith Brothers played above 80% of the defensive snaps in 2019, their first season in Green Bay after signing in free agency. This year, with Gary coming back from an ACL injury and with Preston getting older, the starters haven't been so prevalent.
The opportunity to be more on the field is extremely important for Van Ness. Because of the Iowa process to give starts to senior players, Van Ness never started a college football game. He played a significant amount of snaps, but he needs more in the NFL to reach his ceiling.
Someone’s starting to get more and more confidence rushing the passer pic.twitter.com/iUraMiuHe4
— Andy Herman (@AndyHermanNFL) December 25, 2023
"Really excited about it. Big man. Powerful, fast, explosive. Really big upside, and we're really excited to get him," Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst said after the draft. "He's a very versatile player. That's very important to us."
Van Ness has been slightly more productive than Rashan Gary in his rookie season, even though he’s not as effective on a down to down basis. Coming out of Michigan, Gary had 244 snaps, two sacks, and 15 pressures as a rookie. Van Ness has had 335 snaps, three sacks, and also 15 pressures. Van Ness is better at stopping the run, though, with 21 tackles versus 13 from Gary.
And the tackling, by the way, is a big difference in Van Ness' favor. He's had a 65.6 tackling PFF grade, which is not only better than Gary's numbers as a rookie (51.0), but also his grade this season (51.1).
Enagbare is a solid player, and he's been a great value for the Packers as a fifth-round edge rusher. However, the Packers need to prioritize the higher upside. At the beginning of the year, it made sense to bring Van Ness slowly into the action, but Enagbare is still getting more snaps.
Against the Carolina Panthers, for example, Enagbare had 30 defensive snaps, compared to 20 from the rookie.
As a solid run defender and tackler, there's really not a big downside to letting him play. He has a good floor, allowing him to be on the field more frequently while he develops his skill set as a pass rusher.
The Packers have a modus operandi of bringing rookies patiently. And while it works sometimes, and Gary is a valuable example, it's not a perfect approach for today's NFL. Teams need to generate surplus value, and Gary wasn't that impactful during his rookie contract as you could expect from a 12th overall pick.
Gary only became a preferred starter in his fourth NFL season. When he became a true leader of the defense, it was already time to pay him a near top of the market contract.
With Van Ness, the Packers are trying a similar path of development. But they have the opportunity to increase his role to accelerate his impact on the team. And that’s the smarter way to operate considering the current circumstances of the league.
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