Patrick Mahomes' injury comes at worst possible time for Chiefs

The highest-profile season in the Chiefs’ 60-year history depended on Patrick Mahomes, with enough help from a reconfigured defense, leading the charge to end a 50-year Super Bowl drought. This prospect took a hit in 2019 when defensive issues again rocked the Chiefs. A  bounce-back defensive effort Thursday in a win over Denver barely registered, however, because Mahomes' knee injury sent the team reeling.

An MRI on Friday reportedly revealed Mahomes only suffered a dislocated right knee cap.  But even in a best-case scenario in which he misses three weeks, the injury deals a blow to the snake-bitten, small-market team. 

Considering the state of the AFC, Mahomes' injury opens the door to an even friendlier Patriots Super Bowl path. Mahomes stands as the top deterrent to a 12th AFC title for the Patriots. The Chiefs have other issues to navigate before re-establishing themselves as a strong threat to win a January game in Foxborough, but as of this moment, that reality remains in play.

With Mahomes likely in the final year of a rookie pact that counts just $4.5 million against the Chiefs’ salary cap, it wasn’t hard to identify 2019 as a pivotal year for this franchise.  Already dealing with an unreliable defense, despite the considerable resources GM Brett Veach poured into it, the Chiefs are teetering on a new misfortune precipice. 

Last season’s defense prevented Mahomes’ otherworldly debut from ending in Super Bowl LIII. This resembled the endpoint of the early-2000s Chiefs, whose defenses could not complement perennially potent offenses. Multiple 1990s Chiefs teams entered the postseason with No. 1 seeds and smothering defenses, but the Steve Bono- and Elvis Grbac-quarterbacked squads were outgunned on the other end. 

If Mahomes had missed the rest of the season, it wouldn't end an era, but it certainly would be a a crushing setback considering the Chiefs' modern history.

Limited quarterback replacement options exist. Matt Moore, who replaced Mahomes against Denver, is a 35-year-old backup who was working as a Dolphins scout team QB before Chad Henne’s August ankle surgery. Moore could constrain the Chiefs’ offense while Mahomes rehabs. He helped the 2016 Dolphins into the playoffs after Ryan Tannehill’s late-season knee injury, but the longtime Dolphin was far more familiar with that team's offense and was probably a better quarterback at that point.

Available starter-level options may include Ryan Fitzpatrick or Case Keenum, journeymen leading rebuilding teams. Would the Chiefs call the Giants and ask about acquiring Eli Manning? New York likely would want him to remain Daniel Jones’ mentor. Manning also holds a no-trade clause. Those passers would intrigue a team with a dominant defense in need of a game manager, but not as resurrection options for an offensively oriented squad. 

The elephant in the room warrants discussion. Colin Kaepernick would almost certainly be a better option than Moore, who was out of football in 2018. NFL teams have avoided the polarizing ex-49er for two-plus seasons, but Andy Reid brought in Michael Vick after a two-year prison term. The circumstances are different. Vick had a year to learn the Eagles’ offense before Reid handed him the reins. While Chiefs chairman Clark Hunt said he would not impede a Kaepernick signing, the former Super Bowl starter’s post-2016 standing makes this unrealistic.

With the Chiefs having a Week 12 bye, they probably must get by without their superstar against the Packers, Vikings, Titans and maybe the Chargers. A Moore-piloted Chiefs team may be underdog in three of those games. Mahomes' return would evoke memories of Len Dawson in 1969, when the Hall of Famer suffered an early-season knee injury before re-emerging to spearhead a Super Bowl IV title push.

But a brace-dependent Mahomes comeback would feature a high re-injury risk and may still leave the Chiefs in danger of losing a plausible route to the AFC's No. 2 seed or even their three-year AFC West vice grip. It may not be worth it for the Chiefs to try this. Mahomes is 24, probably the most important player in team history and perhaps the NFL's 2020s centerpiece.  

The teams with the AFC’s Nos. 2-6 preseason playoff odds -– the Chiefs, Colts, Browns, Chargers and Steelers -– have endured myriad setbacks, further weakening a top-heavy conference. The Chiefs being out of the mix would be almost too on-brand for the Patriots, who have thrived in the AFC’s post-Peyton Manning landscape. 

Since the Broncos eliminated the Patriots in the 2015 conference title game, three of New England's six playoff wins came against teams quarterbacked by Brock Osweiler, Marcus Mariota and Blake Bortles. Mahomes provided welcome AFC competition for this run of Pats teams. Removing the game’s most talented quarterback from this season's equation would further tilt the scales toward the defending champions and make for a less captivating stretch run.

The Chiefs are set up for many years of Mahomes brilliance, but with an NFL-record contract likely on tap for 2020, they will not have the same advantage they do now. Veach has yet to prove he can build a capable defense around Mahomes. The formula will soon become much more complicated.

A Chiefs season has plunged into a bad place. It will likely end up being a small chapter in a potentially transcendent career, but Mahomes' injury came at one of the worst possible times for a perpetually on-the-cusp franchise.