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Nov 2, 2025; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel helps warm the team up before a game against the Atlanta Falcons at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images Eric Canha-Imagn Images

Patriots AFC Playoff Picture Still Strong After Bye Week

Originally posted on New England Patriots on SI
By Mike D'Abate | Last updated Dec 8, 2025 7:00 AM ET

As the New England Patriots prepare to return after a much-needed and well-deserved bye week, they will certainly take stock into their performance through their first 13 games of the 2025 NFL season.

In addition to becoming the first team in the NFL to reach 11 wins, the Pats are also back among the conference elites in the standings — putting pressure on their competition, while presenting their claim to be the sole owner of the top spot in the AFC. Though the Pats are undoubtedly pleased with their effort in all three phases — from the coaching prowess of Mike Vrabel to the on-field performance of quarterback Drake Maye — the Patriots must continue to put out maximum effort through the season’s four remaining games.

In that regard, here is a look at the AFC playoff standings through 14 weeks of the 2025 NFL season:

AFC Postseason Standings After Week 14

Denver Broncos (11-2)
New England Patriots (11-2)
Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4)
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)
Buffalo Bills (9-4)
Los Angeles Chargers* (8-4) — MNF game not included
Houston Texans (8-5)

In the Hunt — 8. Indianapolis Colts* (8-5); 9. Baltimore Ravens (6-7); 10. Kansas City Chiefs (6-7); 11. Miami Dolphins (6-7)

*Indianapolis can re-enter the playoff picture should the Chargers lose to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 14. Colts’ quarterback Daniel Jones suffered a season-ending Achilles injury during their Week 14 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars.

“So, You’re Tellin’ Me There’s a Chance?” — 12. Cincinnati Bengals (4-9)

Securing the Top Seed in the Conference?

As previously stated, the Patriots' Week 13 win over the Giants temporarily placed them back in front of the Broncos for the conference’s top spot. However, New England’s time atop ‘contention mountain’ was short-lived. Denver reclaimed the first overall seed with a victory over the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 14. Although the Patriots and Broncos now hold identical 11-2 records, Denver’s triumph over the Raiders gave them the common opponent tiebreaker — given that the Pats lost to the Raiders in Week 1. New England will need to finish with a better overall record to overtake the Broncos to earn the top seed in the conference — along with a coveted first-round bye.

As a reminder, tiebreakers for teams with an identical conference record are awarded first by head-to-head record, second by in-conference record and third by record versus common opponents. Since New England does not play Denver this season, the Broncos would ascend to the top spot based on their 7-2 record against the AFC with a win over Las Vegas.

With the overall record now set to be the deciding factor, Denver’s remaining four games are against the Green Bay Packers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs (away) and Los Angeles Chargers.

New England’s last four contests will put them against the Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens (away), New York Jets (away) and Miami Dolphins.

AFC East Showdown with Buffalo Bills Set for Week 15

Despite their league-approved day of rest, the Patriots remain “masters of their domain” in their quest to bring home their first AFC East crown since 2019. The Pats hold a two-game lead over the Buffalo Bills, after their divisional foes of western New York earned a Week 14 win over the Cincinnati Bengals.

Buffalo’s ninth victory of the season now sets the stage for a showdown with the Patriots at Gillette Stadium as New England in Week 15. Should both teams continue on their current trajectory, the Bills are facing a must-win if they want to keep any hope alive for the AFC East title. The Pats, on the other hand, will clinch a division title if they defeat Buffalo in what has become a “hat and t-shirt” game in Foxborough.

While the tiebreaker may be a source of tension in the conference race, it clearly works to the Patriots' advantage in the battle for the division. With the Pats already holding a 1-0 record over Buffalo, they also hold the second tiebreaker for divisional opponents: the superior in-division record. The Patriots are currently 3-0 against the AFC East, while Buffalo is 2-2 after losing to New England and the Miami Dolphins.

Therefore, even if the Pats lose to the Bills in Week 15, they would still become division champions if they defeat the New York Jets in Week 17 and the Dolphins in Week 18. In that instance, they would finish 5-1 in the division, while holding the tiebreaker over the Bills by default.

Regardless, it is a mere forgone conclusion that New England is postseason bound for the first time since 2021. The Patriots have a greater than 99 percent chance to make the playoffs, per NFL Next Gen Stats — thanks largely in part to their Week 13 trouncing of the Giants within the friendly confines of Gillette Stadium. In that vein, the Pats look to continue “taking care of business” after their Week 14 respite.

This article first appeared on New England Patriots on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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