Nov 13, 2025; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel looks on during warmups before the game against the New York Jets at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images Eric Canha-Imagn Images

Patriots Get Surprising Super Bowl Odds

Originally posted on New England Patriots on SI
By Erin Shapland | Last updated Nov 18, 2025 3:00 PM ET

Heading into Week 12 leading the AFC East, the 2025 New England Patriots continue to transcend expectations after their strong first half.

According to FanDuel, the Patriots are the 11th-most likely team to win the Super Bowl in 2026, with +1900 odds. They trail, in order, the Philadelphia Eagles (+500), the Los Angeles Rams (+550), the Buffalo Bills (+850) the Indianapolis Colts (+950), the Kansas City Chiefs (+1000), the Detroit Lions (+1100), the Seattle Seahawks (+1200), the Baltimore Ravens (+1300), the Denver Broncos (+1400) and the Green Bay Packers (+1500). The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are behind them, at +3000.

Mike Vrabel's Patriots are projected to finish the season as the AFC division champ, per The Athletic's 2025 NFL Playoff Simulator, and they're well on their way to doing so with their 9-2 record so far. The Athletic projects two more losses for them with a 13-4 record heading into the postseason. They are currently tied with the Denver Broncos for the best record in the NFL.

So Why the Long Odds?

The Patriots began the season at +7500, so their projected chances have improved dramatically. Fans on social media are pointing out that the odds only reflect where the money goes, and that the Patriots have faced a soft schedule so far. Some also pointed out that sophomore quarterback Drake Maye has not yet been to the playoffs (after the Patriots went 4-13 in 2024), and that most QBs look awful in their postseason debut.

"They don’t predict winners. They predict where the money will go," One fan wrote.

"Because fans are overreacting," Another wrote. "We're in mid-season. Just like every f---ing year there are teams who super performs for the first half and then falls off.

Fans always forget the immense difference in level of play come playoffs. Patriots are untested and not that deep in talent.

Two teams out of Chiefs, Ravens, Bills will be in the divisional game and one of those teams will be in the Championship.

Just look historically, like recent history. Only last few seasons. It always happens. Some teams are aiming solely on playoffs while others peak early."

"Honestly it’s probably their strength of schedule compared to the other teams combined with playoff experience," Another wrote, echoing a popular sentiment.

Nevertheless, the Patriots have beaten the odds so far. Heading into Week 12, the Patriots are expected to notch another win in their belt against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals will likely be missing star wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase, due to a one-game suspension following his recent altercation with Pittsburgh Steelers cornerback Jalen Ramsey. Chase is expected to appeal the suspension, but if the suspension stands, the Patriots' chances are even better.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

This article first appeared on New England Patriots on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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