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Dec 1, 2025; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel watches from the sideline during the fourth quarter against the New York Giants at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images David Butler II-Imagn Images

Patriots Getting Closer to Winning AFC

Originally posted on New England Patriots on SI
By Mike D'Abate | Last updated Dec 2, 2025 1:00 PM ET

FOXBOROUGH, MA. — As the New England Patriots prepare to embark on a much-needed and well-deserved bye week, they have their dominant 33-15 victory over the New York Giants in Week 13 to thank for landing them in familiar territory.

In addition to earning their tenth straight victory, the Pats became the first team in the NFL to reach 11 wins. Despite the Denver Broncos (10-2) victory over the Washington Commanders, the Pats’ prime time win puts them back atop the conference standings — putting pressure on their competition, while staking their claim as the the sole owner of the top spot in the AFC.

With the postseason path to Santa Clara, CA currently running through Foxborough, one might be inclined to use the phrase The more things change, the more they stay the same,” when describing the AFC playoffs race.

In that regard, here is a look at the AFC playoff standings through 13 weeks of the 2025 NFL season:

AFC Postseason Standings After Week 13

New England Patriots (11-2)
Denver Broncos (10-2)
Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4)
Baltimore Ravens (6-6)
Los Angeles Chargers (8-4)
Indianapolis Colts (8-4)
Buffalo Bills (8-4)

In the Hunt — 8. Houston Texans (7-5), 9. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6), 10. Kansas City Chiefs (6-6)

“So, You’re Tellin’ Me There’s a Chance?” — 11. Miami Dolphins (5-7), 12. Cincinnati Bengals (4-8)

Securing the Top Seed in the Conference?

As previously stated, the Patriots Week 13 win over the Giants placed them back in front of the Broncos for the conference’s top spot. However, New England’s time atop ‘contention mountain’ may be short lived. Denver can reclaim the first overall seed with a victory over the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 14. Although the Patriots and Broncos would hold identical 11-2 records, Denver’s triumph over the Raiders would give them the tiebreaker.

As a reminder, tiebreakers for teams with an identical conference record are awarded first by head-to-head record, second to in-conference record and third to record-versus-common-opponents. Since New England does not play Denver this season — along with the fact that both teams currently have 6-2 records against in-conference competition — the Broncos would ascend to the top spot based on their would-be 7-2 against the AFC with a win over Las Vegas. Of course, it should also be noted that the Patriots lost to the Raiders in Week 1.

Bringing the AFC East Title Back Home to New England?

The Patriots' remain “masters of their domain” in their quest to bring home their first AFC East crown since 2019. The Pats maintained a 2.5 game lead over the Buffalo Bills, after their divisional foes of western New York defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 13.

Accordingly, their "magic number" to win the AFC East is three — meaning any combination of three Patriots wins and/or Bills losses will clinch the division for New England.

In that regard, New England could be in line to host a potential “hat and t-shirt” game in Week 15 against the Bills at Gillette Stadium. Of course, that scenario is only possible if Buffalo loses in Week 14 to the Cincinnati Bengals. Despite holding only a who upset the Baltimore Ravens in Joe Burrow's first game back from injury and are 3-0 in Burrow's starts this season.

While the tiebreaker may be a source of tension in the conference race, it clearly works to the Patriots advantage in the battle for the division. With the Pats already holding a 1-0 record over Buffalo, they also hold the second tiebreaker for divisional opponents: the superior in-division record. The Patriots are currently 3-0 against the AFC East, while Buffalo is 2-2 after losing to New England and the Miami Dolphins.

Therefore, even if the Pats lose to the Bills in Week 15, they would still become division champions if they defeat the New York Jets in Week 17 and the Dolphins in Week 18. In that instance, they would finish 5-1 in the division, while holding the tiebreaker over the Bills by default.

Regardless, it is a mere forgone conclusion that New England is postseason bound for the first time since 2021. The Patriots have a greater than 99 percent chance to make the playoffs, per NFL Next Gen Stats — thanks largely in part to their Week 13 trouncing of the Giants within the friendly confines of Gillette Stadium. In that vein, the Pats look to continue “taking care of business” after their Week 14 respite.

This article first appeared on New England Patriots on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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