Nov 13, 2025; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel huddles up before the game against the New York Jets at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images Eric Canha-Imagn Images

Patriots Playoff Chances Improve Following Early AFC Slate

Originally posted on New England Patriots on SI
By Ethan Hurwitz | Last updated Nov 30, 2025 4:40 PM ET

The AFC-leading New England Patriots have the day off, not playing their matchup against the New York Giants until the final day of Week 13. They still got some help in the NFL's early window of games.

The Indianapolis Colts, who entered their game with the Houston Texans with an 8-4 record, struggled to mount much offense in what was a 20-16 loss on their home turf. As a result, the Colts now drop to second place in the AFC South and, in turn, take a tumble in the hunt for the AFC's top seed. The race for the first-round bye appears to come down to either the Patriots or the Denver Broncos (9-2).

According to The Athletic's Playoff Simulator, following the early slate of afternoon games, the Patriots now hold a league-high 59% chance to end the regular season as their conference's best team. The Colts were one of the favorites to win the division and earn the bye, but have now lost three of their last four games and now just hold an 8% chance to earn the No. 1 seed. The Broncos — who don't play until the end of the day — have a 29% chance, per The Athletic.

The Patriots have the most wins in the league, but still have some glaring holes that could be exposed during the hunt for the postseason. Major injuries across the offensive line (Will Campbell - knee, Jared Wilson - ankle) will force head coach Mike Vrabel to toy with the left side, and slow starts on the defensive side of the ball have forced New England into early deficits in many games this year.

The Patriots Need To Play Their Game To Keep Top Spot

Earlier this week, Vrabel was asked about how to continue playing good football, though there are issues that need to be cleaned up. His answer? Taking care of the football.

"I think good football and taking care of the football, certainly, is critical, and then depending on how bad those elements and things are," Vrabel said. "I think special teams becomes important, the field position, what the wind is like and being able to make field goals in adverse conditions all play into it. So, the ball is critical in this type of weather. Certainly want to be able to do those things that you mentioned, be able to run the ball and stop it. But possessing the football and making sure that you're smart with the football probably is going to go a long way."

Depending on how the Patriots finish against the Giants on primetime, they have a shot to win the division when the Buffalo Bills come to town in Week 15. After that, the Patriots can continue to fight for the AFC's ever-so-important bye week.

This article first appeared on New England Patriots on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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