x
Peter Schrager Round 1 Mock Draft has Miami Taking
Grace Smith/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Peter Schrager has been the most accurate mock drafter the past few years out of all of the NFL draft analysts. As he does mock drafts based on what he is hearing, not what he would do. Today, he released his first mock draft of the season, and with two picks in round one, he has Miami selecting.

Round 1, Pick #11: Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State

“Miami has seven picks in the first three rounds, becoming just the second NFL team to have such a haul (2024 Cardinals). And with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle gone, and the sizable investment under center in Malik Willis , the Dolphins have to address the WR room. New coach Jeff Hafley (who coached with Ryan Day in San Francisco and at Ohio State) and GM Jon-Eric Sullivan have countless contacts at Ohio State, and the whole program raves about Tate. He could bring some juice to Miami.”

NFL.com Draft Profile

Overview

Ascending “Z” receiver who continues to step out from the shadow of Ohio State teammate Jeremiah Smith. Tate has good size but would benefit from more play strength. He builds momentum quickly on intermediate and deep routes, utilizing speed and tempo to pressure cornerbacks. He can win over the top on verticals or separate over the first two levels with route savvy and separation burst. Tate tracks throws at top speed and makes his adjustments to run under them. He combines timing, body control and catch radius to dominate air space and consistently lands on the winning side of contested catches. Pass catching comes effortlessly with soft, strong hands and he consistently works back on throws to keep ballhawks from hawking. Tate displays rare polish for a player his age and has the talent to become a heralded pro within his first three seasons.

Strengths

  • Plus agility, speed and body control.
  • Slips press and gets into stride quickly for vertical advantage.
  • Consistent route runner who leverages defenders out of position.
  • Route tempo and play speed overwhelms lesser corners.
  • No wasted motion; smooth turnover and a burst to separate.
  • Works back on most throws, eliminating playmaking angles for defenders.
  • Good spatial awareness against zone.
  • Impressive win rate when contested.
  • Outstanding ball tracking and catch focus downfield.
  • Dominates air space with elite high-point timing and hand strength.
  • Late fade adjustments prevent face-guarders from reading his hands.

Weaknesses

  • Lacks ideal build and frame as a WR1 candidate.
  • Long press corners can limit some early release advantages.
  • Chest/pads rise, giving break clues on stop routes and comebacks.
  • Average run block strain by NFL standards.
  • Missed three games in 2025 with a calf strain.

Round 1, Pick #30: Dillon Thieneman, Safety, Oregon

“I thought about Georgia linebacker CJ Allen here, but I went with one of the fastest players at this year’s combine in Thieneman. But he’s much more than just that 4.35 speed. His film reveals a versatile player who can cover, tackle and lead a defense. It’s a new era in Miami, and Jeff Hafley has expertise in coaching up defensive backs.”

NFL.com Draft Profile

Overview

Savvy three-year starter with NFL size, speed and alignment versatility. Thieneman is an extension of his defensive coordinator, aligning and adjusting the secondary to motion and pre-snap shifts. He’s an instinctive, rangy safety who can roll down into big nickel or robber positioning. He has a good feel for play design and route concepts in zone but has average change of direction to match breaks in man. He’s not a big thumper near the line, but he rushes into the action with a relentless pursuit that should allow him to keep stacking high scores in the tackle columns. Thieneman checks important boxes for teams looking to add versatile playmakers in the secondary.

Strengths

  • Rare production (306 tackles, eight interceptions) in his three seasons.
  • Size/athleticism combination to play all three safety positions.
  • High coverage IQ with a strong feel for spacing and route structure.
  • Range and ball-tracking ability to play over the top.
  • Rarely takes eyes off the quarterback for extended periods of time.
  • Persistent pursuit of the football keeps him near the action.
  • Reads run and races downhill to squeeze work space for ball-carriers.
  • Recognizes run track and bolts to the junction point ready to meet the runner.

Weaknesses

  • Man coverage begins to show cracks as the route progresses.
  • Average short space change-of-direction quickness.
  • Step slow to adjust his pursuit angles to the perimeter.
  • Needs better hand usage to stack and play off blocks.
  • Full speed alley running leads to greater hit/miss variability.
  • Average stopping power when bringing down bigger bodies.

This article first appeared on Dolphins Talk and was syndicated with permission.

More must-reads:

Customize Your Newsletter

Yardbarker +

Get the latest news and rumors, customized to your favorite sports and teams. Emailed daily. Always free!