Picking the Pack: Packers-Seahawks

And we're back!

The Green Bay Packers will take the field for the first time since December 5, a 34-31 loss to the Lions when they invade Seattle on Sunday night.

On the other side, the Seattle Seahawks, winners of four straight games, and firmly in position to make the playoffs with the possibility of winning the NFC West.

They're a good team. This is no lay up. 

The two teams have plenty of history.

The Packers have not won in Seattle since 2008, Aaron Rodgers' first season as a starter. 

Are they going to break that trend on Sunday night and all but clinch a spot in the playoffs?

Here's how we see it. 

The Packers Win If: Hit Geno

The recipe on defense has to be pretty simple for the Packers.

Simply put, their corners cannot match up with Seattle's receivers. 

They have to put Geno Smith under pressure.

Smith has been sacked 40 times this year, and taken a beating behind a porous offensive lnie.

Green Bay's pass rush, however, has been middle of the pack for most of the year, when they were supposed to be dominant.

This is a game where the Packers should find ways to score points. The issue is going to be whether or not they can get enough stops.

Rashan Gary has at least half of a sack in four of his last five games. He'll need that streak to continue.

Lukas Van Ness has been trending upwards since the trade of Preston Smith. 

They'll need that to continue as well. 

If Smith is under pressure, he's prone to mistakes.

If he makes a mistake, Xavier McKinney and the rest of his friends in the secondary should be ready to catch passes Smith throws their way. 

The Packers Lose If: JSN Haunts Them

He was right there for the taking.

With the Packers on the clock in the 2023 NFL Draft, the fanbase was clamoring for one player.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba. 

Smith-Njigba would have been the first skill position player the Packers drafted in the first round since Javon Walker in 2002.

Instead, Brian Gutekunst tabbed Lukas Van Ness with the pick.

He did end up taking Jayden Reed in the second round, and Reed has been a good player for the Packers.

Smith-Njigba, however, is emerging into a star this season. He's Seattle's leading receiver, and does most of his work from the slot.

That's where the Packers' secondary could struggle the most with Keisean Nixon likely returning to that spot with Alexander sitting out with an injury. 

The recipe for Smith-Njigba to remind the Packers of what they could have had is certainly there.

If he has a big night, the Packers could be left wondering how to cover him, and what could have been. 

Winner: Seahawks 31 Packers 27

The Packers are 9-4 this season.

Their four losses are against teams that have lost a total of six games this season.

Their signature win of the year came against the Los Angeles Rams or Houston Texans.

Both teams were decimated by injuries that day.

This Seahawks team is not. They match up well with Green Bay's defense. 

Green Bay's pass rush has disappointed, and with Jaire Alexander sitting out Sunday's game as he continues to recover from a knee injury, they'll need that group to step up.

If they don't, Seattle's trio of receivers should be licking their chops against Green Bay's secondary. 

The Packers have yet to beat a good team this year. Until they do, I can't pick them to do so.  

Player of the Game: Josh Jacobs

Jacobs has some big time history against Seattle.

The last time he faced them he ran for 229 yards and had 303 yards from scrimmage.

The Packers have leaned on Jacobs this season, and he should have fresh legs following a 10-day break.

This is the time of year they say defense and run game travels anywhere.

Green Bay's ground game should be the biggest mismatch in their favor. Seattle has struggled stopping the run all season. Green Bay has run the ball well against almost anyone.

Expect that to continue on Sunday night.